A Glimpse Into the Chinese 'Garbage Time of History'

Perhaps one of the most famous Chinese proverbs is "民以食爲天" (min yi shi wei tian). Literally, it means, "The people regard food as their heaven." Moreover, the proverb appears to be true. The Chinese people value food above all else. I have rarely seen any other people put as much effort into making delicious dishes as the Chinese do.

So, if Chinese people start cutting back spending on food, it means that the Chinese economy has truly reached a dire point. This is exactly the situation in China today, as reflected by several newly trending internet terms and real-life phenomena. These include "The Poor Man's Package," "Three Essentials for the Poor," and "The Leftover Blind Box."

'Poor Guy's Package' 

"Poor Guy's Package" (qiong gui tao can 窮鬼套餐) is a Chinese social media term. It refers to a discounted set meal offered by restaurants that allows the so-called "poor guy" to spend a small amount of money to get a full meal while sampling some normally more expensive food. Many restaurant chains, including McDonald's and Burger King, are offering this kind of deal. 

For example, McDonald's has introduced a 13.9 yuan (approximately $1.92 USD) "Poor Guy's Package. " It includes double cheeseburgers and a drink or dessert. Burger King's "package" of a beef burger, fries, and a cup of Coca-Cola costs only 15.9 yuan (approximately $2.19). 

The "Poor Guy's Package at Rice Village", a restaurant chain in China, is as cheap as 3 yuan ($0.41)! 

How many customers are searching for these deeply discounted meals? Videos on the topic of "Poor Guy's Package" have received as many as 800 million views on the video site Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok.

For example, this video on Douyin about the "Poor Guy's Package" tells people where they can go to get a cheap meal from Monday through Friday. It is titled "Mom won't have to worry about me starving anymore." It has been played 962,000 times. Furthermore, it has garnered 71,000 comments, saved 108,000 times, and shared 183,000 times so far. 

'Three Essentials for the Poor' and 'The Blind Box of Leftovers'

The "Three Essentials for the Poor" (qiong ren san jian tiao 穷人三件套) refers to instant noodles, pickled mustard tubers, and a beverage. They are "essentials" for the "poor", especially migrant workers, who can't afford anything else. 

 "The Blind Box of Leftovers" refers to expired foods that food stores and restaurants mix together and sell at a low price. They are called "blind boxes" because customers do not know what is inside when they order online.

The "blind box of leftovers" sales method was originally introduced by a Danish company, Too Good to Go, to avoid wasting expired food and to help the poor. It was mainly adopted by small stores. 

However, in China, "The Blind Box of Leftovers" has turned into a big business distributed by e-commerce platforms. Every year, millions of people frequently buy these boxes online, with annual sales totaling 30 to 40 billion yuan (approximately $4.13- $5.51 billion).

This indicates that more and more Chinese people are now relying on "leftover blind boxes" to get by. Their food consumption has not only been downgraded, it has reached the point where many in China cannot afford to buy fresh food.

Clearly, for many people in China, consumption downgrading has extended from not buying luxury goods or designer clothes to buying leftover food and only eating "Poor Guy's Package" in restaurants. The Chinese people's consumption capacity has reached its limit. There would seem to be little room for further downgrading. 

Decline of the Chinese Restaurant Industry

China's restaurant industry has long been struggling. The market research company NielsenIQ's report "2023 China Consumer Insights and 2024 Outlook'' shows that 43% of Chinese respondents said they would strictly control their total spending. The same report indicates that 37% would change consumption habits to seek cheaper products. This is a typical sign of consumption downgrading.

How has China's restaurant industry been affected by such downgrading? 

According to the data of China's business registration platform "Enterprise Cha Cha", more than 1.36 million restaurants went out of business in 2023. That is an increase of 128% compared to the previous year, 2022. The number of failed restaurants also reached 460,000 in the first quarter of 2024, compared to fewer than 140,000 in the same period in 2023. Restaurant failure increased by more than 228% compared to 2023. 

In Shanghai, China's busiest big city, a lot of videos also show that many food and beverage stores are deserted. There are not many guests even at lunch and dinnertime.

A short video I translated recently shows that the once-thriving Shangxiajiu Street of Guangzhou City in southern China has become quite desolate.

While a large number of restaurants are closing down, the existing ones have to start lowering their prices to get customers. That's why the "Poor Guy's Package" began to appear in 2023. 

Eat at the 'Elderly Canteen'

In addition to the popularity of the "Poor Guy's Package," Shanghai has recently seen a wave of young people going to eat in "senior citizen cafeterias." One might also call them "elderly canteens."

Shanghainese people are well known for how proud they are of themselves. It is hard to imagine that this kind of thing would happen in the past. 

These canteens are subsidized by the government and the prices are relatively cheap. In the past, customers at "elderly canteens" were mainly elderly people living in the local neighborhood. 

However, nowadays, many young people also rush to take advantage of the cheap prices of these canteens.

Hong Kong People's 'Downgrading' of Consumption

Consumption downgrading is not a phenomenon unique to Mainland China. It has also happened in Hong Kong. More and more Hong Kong people are now going north to Shenzhen, a city on the mainland near Hong Kong, to spend money. 

Apart from buying household food and daily necessities, Hongkongers also go to Shenzhen to eat.

In 2023, the number of Hong Kong people going to Shenzhen reached 53 million. That works out to an average of nearly seven visits per person. 

The fact that Hong Kong residents are keen to consume in Shenzhen is actually a "chronic poison" for Hong Kong. It will make the Hong Kong economy wither further.

We can only say that after the freedom of Hong Kong was stifled, the withering and dying of the Hong Kong economy was exactly as expected.

'Ice and Fire' in the Consumer Market

Consumption patterns in China are changing rapidly. China's consumer market is now in a state of "fire and ice". This means that the prices of high-end consumer products are plummeting, while that of daily necessities are rising. 

For example, the wholesale price of Maotai wine has fallen from about 2,700 yuan (approximately $371) per bottle at the beginning of 2024 to about 2,445 yuan (approximately $337) per bottle today. This decline far exceeds that of previous years. On June 24, 2024, the wholesale reference price of individual bottles of Feitian Maotai dropped from the previous day's 2,140 yuan (approximately $295) to 2,080 yuan ($287).

Even the price of beef has dropped. High-end Western restaurants are closing down in China one by one. 

In the meantime, the necessities of life for China's residents, ranging from water, electricity, gas, and high-speed rail tickets to the so-called "three Essentials for the Poor," are on the rise. The prices of commodities that always exhibit rigid demand, such as instant noodles, are on the rise.

What is happening?

Economic and Social Factors Driving Consumption Down

Some commentators have pointed out that there are economic factors as well as profound social changes at work in the changing consumption patterns.

From an economic point of view, the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) harsh Zero COVID policies during the pandemic have been one factor. The CCP also continues to suppress private enterprises in China. Abroad, the CCP has intensified confrontation with the international community. This has accelerated the decoupling with other countries. These factors have all led to a continued downward spiral in the Chinese economy.

As a result, the wealth of the middle class, and even that of the lower-ranking super-rich, is shrinking. People's expectations of the future are very low. So, consumers want to cut back on spending as much as possible.

Therefore, the current changes in China's consumption structure reflect the complexity of China's economic downturn. It is not a traditional or simple deflation or stagflation. Rather "one side of China's economy is on fire, while the other side is an iceberg." 

Many essential products are rising in price, while industrial and non-essential goods are generally experiencing deflation. This presents a challenge for the Chinese government's future policies.

'Garbage Time of History'

Pessimism about China's economic future is growing. The topic of "no more tomorrows for China" has already emerged in China, along with the related phrase "the garbage time of history." The fact that such phrases have begun to gain popularity suggests that some Chinese intellectuals are already sensing a crisis in the future. They just don't dare to criticize Xi Jinping publicly yet.

In September of 2023, Hu Wenhui, editor of Yangcheng Evening News in Guangzhou, wrote an article titled "The Garbage Time of History, the Long Vacation of Culture." 

He used the example of the Soviet Union to make his argument. His main point was that although the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the actual collapse began with the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. For the Soviet Union, the period after 1979 was its "garbage time." Premier Mikhail Gorbachev, who oversaw the collapse of the Soviet Union, merely hastened the end of this "garbage time."

Hu also cited the examples of many Chinese dynasties to strengthen his argument about history's unraveling. Hu then presented two questions to his readers.

"When the overall situation is set," Hu wrote, "and defeat is inevitable, no matter how hard you try, it is just a futile struggle. The only option is to end as gracefully as possible. So, how should those unfortunate enough to encounter the garbage time of history conduct themselves? Should they perish along with the garbage of time?"

The Desperation of a Failing Regime

On the surface, Hu seemed to be commenting on history. In reality, however, people understand that Hu was presenting a warning to the Chinese people of today. Hu is saying that it is time to consider how to endure the "garbage time of history" once again.

As far as I am concerned, the current "garbage time of history" is reflected in the fact that the Chinese Communist regime, despite its best efforts to show force to the outside world and crack down internally, has been unable to save its sliding economy. Xi Jinping, even with his best efforts, has been and will be powerless to save his regime.

No one can accurately predict when the CCP will finally run out of steam. But if we take Chinese history as a reference, we can be confident in knowing that China has indeed entered "history's garbage time" once again.

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Author: Jennifer Zeng
Find articles by Jennifer Zeng on JAPAN Forward. Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) and on her blog page, Jennifer's World.