A Message to the Next American President From Japan

According to the White House, Kamala Harris has been a leading figure in the efforts to deepen and strengthen American relationships with its partner countries, including Japan.

She made her first official visit to Tokyo in September 2022 as Vice President. At that time she attended the state funeral of Shinzo Abe. She described his leadership as "an enduring friendship with the United States."

Mr Abe often emphasized the crucial role of the Japan-US alliance in ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific. Ms Harris has said the alliance is the cornerstone "to peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region." She added that America's commitment to Japan's defense is "ironclad."

Security Concerns 

Kamala Harris enjoys a warm relationship with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. He has warned that the US and Japan face a "severe and complex security environment."

Under Mr Kishida's leadership, Japan's lawmakers have voted to sharply increase defense spending - a move which has been praised in Washington, both by Democrats and Republicans.

Mr Kishida's vehement support for Ukraine has also gone down well with a broad spectrum of US politicians. Furthermore, Japan's robust response to China, particularly concerning Taiwan, wins bipartisan backing. 

During her most recent meeting with Mr Kishida, Ms Harris said: "I believe the US-Japan alliance is a source of great strength for the United States militarily, economically, and culturally. And it is a force for good in the world."

Women as Leaders

Japan's Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa may perceive she has found a fellow spirit in Kamala Harris. Both share a determination to give women a greater voice in politics.

Ms Kamikawa founded the Taskforce on Women, Peace and Security. has said, "We have a better chance to achieve sustained peace, not only by protecting and helping women and girls but also if women hold leadership positions and participate in conflict prevention, reconstruction and peacebuilding."

This resonates with themes on the official website of Kamala Harris. She emphasizes her trailblazing role as the first woman to become the Vice President of the United States. She also expresses pride in being the first Black American and the first South Asian American to hold such a position.

The Vice President says: "My mother would look at me and she'd say, 'Kamala, you may be the first to do many things, but make sure you are not the last.'"

What About Mr Trump?

For Japan, a relationship with an American government led by President Harris would have the advantage of continuity. She has been a key figure in the Biden Administration. 

However, diplomats in Tokyo are also considering what would happen if Donald Trump wins in November. 

On several issues, members of the governing party of Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party, have a similar outlook to Republicans in America. They often emphasize the importance of strong defense and an international system that upholds the rule of law. The LDP and senior Republicans - including Trump - are quick to complain of unfair trade practices by China.  

Trump has indicated that he wants to raise the tariffs on Chinese goods entering America. His critics claim this shows he is planning to take a protectionist 'America First' approach. However, Joe Biden has also been a vocal critic of China. US firms that want to offer advanced technology to the Chinese are blocked from doing so by law.

Creating Jobs in America

If Trump takes the line that American jobs are under threat from imports, he could try to put tariffs on goods imported from friendly countries, such as Japan. However, economists say that would fuel inflation and stifle growth. And some of Trump's advisors may warn him against starting a trade war with allies if he wants to be seen as a credible global leader. 

The Japanese business lobby in the US can also point out that it employs a large number of American workers. Ohio is the home of Vice Presidential candidate JD Vance. Moreover, in his home state, 73,000 people work for Japanese companies, making Japan the state's largest foreign investor.

Elsewhere in the US, the noodle company Nissin is setting up a factory in the largely Republican state of South Carolina. Meanwhile, Yakult is building a plant in the swing state of Georgia to produce a milky drink. 

American Engagement

If Kamala Harris wins the Democratic nomination, she will have little time available for foreign travel between now and November.

However, her close colleague, Secretary of State, Antony Blinken is traveling in Asia in late July. The Japan leg of his tour includes meetings with Foreign Minister Kamikawa as well as colleagues from Quad countries, India and Australia.

Prime Minister Kishida also plans to join the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September. He will probably have a meeting there with President Yoon of South Korea. If Joe Biden joins that summit, it will almost certainly be the last US-Japan meeting of his presidency.

After that, it will be up to the Japanese government to work out which elements of its complex but highly fruitful relationship with America need to be reset to accommodate the new US president.   

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Author: Duncan Bartlett, Diplomatic Correspondent
Mr Bartlett is the Diplomatic Correspondent for JAPAN Forward and a Research Associate at the SOAS China Institute. Read his other articles and essays.