Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki (right), wearing a serious expression as he watches the Lower House election results alongside a candidate supported by the All Okinawa coalition, February 8 evening, Ginowan City, Okinawa Prefecture. (©Sankei by Naoki Ohtake)
The All Okinawa movement, long united in opposition to relocating US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to Henoko in Nago City, appears to be nearing collapse.
In the February 8 Lower House election, the All Okinawa candidates suffered their first complete defeat, losing all four of the prefecture's single-member districts. The coalition even failed to field a unified candidate in Okinawa's 4th District, ultimately ending up with zero seats.
Speaking on February 9, the day after the election, Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki attributed the defeat to "the sudden gust of the Takaichi whirlwind."
But was that truly the decisive factor? As the saying goes, A dam can collapse from an ant's hole. In reality, the All Okinawa coalition may have simply allowed too many small fractures to go unattended for too long.
When Unity Fractures
In Okinawa's 2nd District, an internal rift within the anti-base camp erupted into the open. Former Kitanakagusuku mayor Kunio Aragaki, who left the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in 2025, ran under the banner of the newly formed Centrist Reform Alliance. Meanwhile, the SDP fielded its own candidate, former lawmaker Chobin Zukeran.
The result was a divided race. By splitting the anti-government and anti-Henoko vote, both candidates ultimately lost.
Has the late former Okinawa Governor Takeshi Onaga's guiding principle — that on issues other than the Henoko relocation, one should be willing to settle for 80%, 60%, or even 40% of one's demands — been forgotten?
Tamaki, Onaga's successor, has devoted much of his political capital to opposing the US military presence in Okinawa, deepening his confrontation with the central government.
Meanwhile, the local economy remains weary, overshadowed by a pervasive sense of stagnation. Okinawa's development budget continues to shrink, per capita prefectural income remains the lowest in the nation, and child poverty persists at alarmingly high levels.
Expectations for a breakthrough from this prolonged stagnation also helped drive votes toward the ruling Liberal Democratic Party candidate.
Eroding Public Trust
While it's understandable that Tamaki would attribute the defeat to the so-called "Takaichi whirlwind," he would be better served by confronting the public sentiment laid bare by the election results.
Moreover, it's likely that the prefectural government's response to an accident in June 2024 further accelerated All Okinawa's decline.
In that incident, a security guard restraining a woman protesting the Henoko relocation was struck and killed by a construction dump truck that approached at high speed.
The prefectural government is responsible for managing the national highway where the accident occurred. However, it declined to install guardrails — a basic safety measure that could have helped prevent such tragedies.
Tamaki and prefectural assembly members aligned with the All Okinawa faction also refused to review security camera footage capturing the moments before the accident. By doing so, they effectively turned a blind eye to what many described as objective evidence.
The People's Verdict
On the Henoko relocation issue, the prefectural government has repeatedly resisted court rulings, raising concerns that it's undermining the democratic principle of rule of law.
Tamaki's foundation, and that of the All Okinawa movement, has consistently been what they describe as the "will of the people." As Tamaki argues, "The overwhelming majority of the public has clearly expressed opposition to the relocation in the past three gubernatorial elections and in the February 2019 referendum."
However, in the 2024 prefectural assembly election, the All Okinawa coalition had already suffered a decisive defeat and went on to lose a series of mayoral races as well.
In Nago City — home to the Henoko relocation site — the All Okinawa candidate who campaigned on opposition to Henoko was soundly defeated in January's mayoral election, losing by nearly a two-to-one margin.
And then came the recent Lower House election. Tamaki has invoked the phrase "public sentiment" countless times. Yet the latest expression of that sentiment suggests that many Okinawans now place greater priority on practical concerns than on continued opposition to Henoko.
Does "All Okinawa" Still Fit?
At its core, the All Okinawa movement was meant to embody the identity of the Uchinanchu — the Okinawan people — transcending the traditional divide between conservatives and progressives.
But as conservative factions and members of the business community began to peel away one after another, the movement increasingly took on the character of a Communist-led progressive bloc.
At that point, one might reasonably ask whether the name "All Okinawa" still reflected the political reality.
On social media, posts mocking the label — quipping that it is "All Okinawa" or, more pointedly, "Half Okinawa, not All Okinawa" — are increasingly common.
Some residents appear uneasy with the word "All," concerned that it implies unanimous support and risks misrepresenting the diverse views of Okinawan society.
The Burden of Political Memory
In Okinawa's 2nd District, where the race fractured into a split contest, former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama joined the campaign for the Social Democratic Party candidate on February 4.
Even within the All Okinawa camp, some questioned dismissively whether Hatoyama truly understood Okinawa's situation. Voters, for their part, likely regarded his appearance with even greater skepticism.
The Hatoyama administration of the left-wing Democratic Party came to power in 2009, pledging to move the base "at the very least outside Okinawa Prefecture."
Yet it ultimately failed to secure an alternative site either elsewhere in Japan or overseas. And in the end, it reverted to the original Henoko plan. Was it not, in fact, this very reversal that set the stage for the prolonged confusion that continues to this day?
An Era Nearing Its End
Tamaki further argued that despite the opposition coalition's sweeping defeat in the Lower House race, "the people of Okinawa continue to harbor doubts about the stance of both Tokyo and Washington — concerns that go beyond mere base opposition."
In truth, it's the All Okinawa movement itself that stands on trial, clinging to opposition to Henoko while neglecting the urgent, real-world challenges confronting Okinawa.
It is high time the movement stopped treating Henoko as a political football. The severe rebuke delivered to the All Okinawa camp in the Lower House election speaks plainly: many voters no longer wish to define their politics by an ideology centered solely on opposing the military base.
And this historic defeat was no accident. It was the inevitable result of accumulated choices and missed opportunities. The All Okinawa movement now appears to be nearing the end of its historical role.
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Author: Naoki Otake, The Sankei Shimbun
(Read this in Japanese)
