After the Third CCP Plenum: What Would Happen If Xi Suddenly Died? 

There were subtle changes in official media reports following the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) Third Plenary Session. Notably, for seven days from his July 20 TV appearance to July 27, Xi Jinping did not make any other public appearance. 

Read Part 1: After the Third Plenum, CCP Secrets and Rumors About Xi Jinping's Power

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Even more obvious was his "disappearance" from the front page of the People's Daily. It is one of the most important mouthpieces of the CCP.  

Painstakingly I counted the number of front page articles on the People's Daily for each day from July 1 to July 27.  I found that the proportion of articles about Xi Jinping dropped by as much as 64% after the Third Plenary Session.  

It is even more dramatic if the results for July 19 are excluded. There was only one article on that day about the Third Plenum and Xi Jinping presiding over it. Excluding July 19, the percentage of articles about Xi Jinping dropped by as much as 75% after the Third Plenum.

Should this big change in statistics tell us something?

Publishing Game of Cat and Mouse

Also, the trend has been the same on other major Chinese media outlets since the conclusion of the Third Plenary Session. 

Another usual thing happened on July 21. NetEase, one of China's major web portals, posted an article about Zhao Ziyang. He is a former CCP leader who was put under house arrest until his death. The CCP accused him of sympathizing with the 1989 student movement and supporting the reform line.

The article was deleted later, but a Google search still shows its title and summary.

Although the article was short-lived, an analyst writing under the pen name "Quantum Leap" commented that "it would have been unthinkable for a Chinese website to publish such an article about Zhao Ziyang even only 10 days ago [July 11]. It doesn't matter whether Xi Jinping is alive or dead. He may already be out of the game."

I'm not so optimistic, but this added some weight to the above-mentioned trend in the official reports. 

What Would Happen To China If Xi Jinping Suddenly Died?

True or not, the rumor about Xi's stroke triggered an interesting question: What would the scenario be if Xi Jinping were to suddenly pass away?

"Quantum Leap" predicted the following:

Initially, the upper ranks of the CCP would be thrown into disarray due to the lack of a contingency plan.

The primary concern would be the succession of Xi's power. Would there be a collective decision to appoint a temporary successor? Or would the powers be temporarily divided among all the members of the Standing Committee?

Currently, the various factions within the CCP restrain one another, preventing any single faction from dominating.

Interestingly, Xi Jinping, in an effort to maintain a balance of power, deliberately shuffled the power hierarchy among the Politburo Standing Committee members. The second-ranked Li Qiang holds the role of the premier with no actual power. Meanwhile, the fifth-ranked Cai Qi wields considerable authority. In fact, his power is second only to Xi Jinping among the seven members. This disordered setup has planted the seeds for potential chaos following Xi Jinping's death.

At this juncture, Cai Qi's group is poised to become the center of a fierce power struggle. Should it join forces with Wang Xiaohong's forces from the Ministry of Public Security Special Service Bureau, this alliance could swiftly become a dominant faction.

Second (and Third)-Generation Reds

In this violent conflict, the Xi family's influence is likely to be the first to be eradicated. There is a straightforward explanation: the nation has long been sick of the status quo. And the party is sick of Xi's leadership. 

All the terrible acts committed under Xi's rule, including those by previous party leaders, are expected to be shouldered by the Xi family. So its fate will be far grimmer than that of Mao Zedong's, potentially leading to their total annihilation.

Conversely, if neither the rest of the CCP Standing Committee nor the Xi family can control the whole situation on their own, the final deciding factor will be the military.  The preferences of Zhang Youxia and He Weidong, the two vice chairmen of the Military Commission, are critical. Zhang Youxia is particularly important because his qualifications, capabilities, and connections are much stronger than He Weidong's. Therefore, whichever gang he chooses to support will be able to control the situation. 

Additionally, another significant force comprises the CCP elders and the privileged groups of the second and third generation "Reds." They are the most likely to form an alliance with the military. Should they do so, the Xi family and Cai Qi's faction would be the first targets for them to eliminate. 

A 'Dam on the Brink'

However, the real spectacle will unfold outside the party. The CCP regime resembles a dam on the brink of collapse. The internal divisions and brutal infighting among the upper ranks could lead to the dam's breach, potentially triggering a popular revolt.

Regarding the potential changes among the populace, two significant trends may emerge. 

Firstly, a variety of local autonomous organizations are likely to proliferate rapidly, beginning in the affluent coastal regions south of the Yangtze River and then spreading northwards. 

Secondly, there could be a widespread surge of purges and retaliations targeting the CCP's bureaucratic system and its collaborators, including the police, prosecutors, courts, traffic authorities, urban management, market regulators, commercial and tax departments, demolition crews, village committees, and street offices, etc.

At that time, if local grassroots organizations failed to keep pace, Chinese society could face considerable instability. In this case, the deep-seated tensions between the Han majority and various ethnic minorities might simultaneously come to the forefront. This scenario is particularly concerning.

Personally, I am not as pessimistic. 

I believe that if the CCP's power structure collapses, it is unlikely that the new leadership will want to uphold the CCP's legacy. The extent and intensity of internal conflicts among the populace would be limited. If a robust force could quickly emerge to stabilize the situation and seek international support, it might be possible to prevent widespread chaos or conflict.

The military has always been expected to remain absolutely loyal to the Party; however, without the Party's command, it is improbable that the military would randomly target civilians.

Shift in Public Sentiment: 'Garbage Time of History' Trends Online

The Third Plenum was repeatedly delayed because the CCP, confronted with various political and economic crises, lacked viable solutions.

Before the Plenum, the term 'Garbage Time of History' gained traction online. It reflected a widespread belief among the populace that the CCP's system was irredeemable. The only option left, it seemed, was to 'lie flat' and endure this challenging period.

During this difficult time, the CCP fears not only the possibility of large-scale social protests and regional disturbances. It is also concerned about the threat of international isolation and sanctions.

Thus, in the standoff between the "lying flat" public and the internally divided CCP, who is more likely to prevail?

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Author: Jennifer Zeng
Find articles by Jennifer Zeng on JAPAN Forward. Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) and on her blog page, Jennifer's World.