China Playing Both Sides of Myanmar Conflict to Its Advantage

A giant power can usurp a domestic political crisis in its vulnerable neighboring state to its advantage and interests entirely. China's involvement and influence in Myanmar since the coup d'état in 2021 has become a classic case of this.

The past few months have witnessed exactly this in the example of China's intervention in northern Myanmar. This is a region where they share more than a 2,000-km-long land border.

In 2021, Myanmar's military, the Tatmadaw, took power and handed it over to military chief, Min Aung Hlaing. A state of emergency was declared with the closing of Myanmar's borders. 

It has been three years since the military coup. What is emerging is a situation in which the military is arguably in its weakest position since the 1950s. The Burmese army has been locked in a course of continued conflict.

Playing Both Sides

The Three Brotherhood Alliance is an ethnic armed alliance between the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army. It was formed and consolidated in June 2019. 

The alliance has been launching coordinated attacks against the military regime in Myanmar's northern Shan State. This state borders China (Yunnan) to the north. It is the largest of the 14 administrative divisions by land area, covering almost a quarter of the entire Myanmar.

The Brotherhood Alliance's "Operation 1027" targeted "pig butchering." The latter refers to online scams and other crime-related operations along Myanmar's border. The operation was quite successful with the alliance forces seizing Laukkai, the capital city of Kokang.

By providing tacit approval to these operations, China, in collaboration with the ethnic armies in Myanmar's north, has begun to wield considerable influence in this part of the country. 

The Junta's Dependence on China

On the other hand, having lost control of a major territorial part of the Shan State, the junta regime is relying on Beijing to intervene in the situation "on its behalf." It appears apprehensive that if gone unchecked, the alliance's offensive could tear the country apart. The fighting has since spread to Rakhine State. 

Meanwhile, the junta has been pushed to a point where it had to sign an addendum with Beijing for a China-backed deep seaport project in Kyaukphyu Township. This is in addition to many other China-Myanmar megaprojects. Other critical projects include infrastructure ventures, a gas pipeline connecting with the Yunnan Province, and essential access to the Indian Ocean.

Apart from the Shan State, the case of the autonomous and self-governing Wa State is also a concern. It is a de facto independent state. While recognizing Myanmar's sovereignty over all its territory, it does not pronounce allegiance to any specific government. The Wa State acts as an autonomous buffer between Myanmar and China and has become more like a small Chinese satellite province.

Myanmar, today, is confronted with an extremely perplexing politico-military condition domestically. Chinese protectorates are expanding and consolidating in northern Myanmar. Meanwhile, the junta regime is cornered to a point where it is left with no option but to continue depending on China for investments and military supplies, not to mention political backing at the UN.

China's Strategic Position in Myanmar

China has been influencing, supporting, and strengthening the ethnic alliance forces fighting against the junta. However, Beijing officially maintains that "the war in northern Myanmar has seriously threatened the security and stability of the China-Myanmar border areas […] China urges all parties to immediately cease fire and stop fighting." 

Besides, it was reported that in early April 2024, the Chinese military (PLA) held a live-fire military exercise along the China-Myanmar border. This was interpreted as a message to both the Myanmar military and the rebel armed groups. The PLA's Southern Theater Command conducted this joint live-fire exercise involving its army and air force units on the Chinese side of the border.

With the fighting between the ruling junta and rebel forces intensifying, reportedly the PLA held a second round of air-defense and live-fire drills. This was conducted near China's border with Myanmar in the third week of April. Myanmar's escalating conflict has resulted in the rebel forces capturing the town of Myawaddy, a key trading outpost near the Thai border.

It appears that China has managed to place itself in a solid position in Myanmar. While the numerous sanctions imposed by the West have crippled the junta regime, China has predictably taken full advantage of the developing situation to maximize its political, geostrategic, and economic interests in Myanmar.

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Author: Dr Monika Chansoria

Learn more about Dr Chansoria and follow her column "All Politics is Global" on JAPAN Forward, and on X (formerly Twitter). The views expressed here are those of the author and do not reflect the views of any organization with which she is affiliated.