Prothom Alo newspaper building set on fire by rioters in Dhaka, Bangladesh, December 2025. (©Reuters)
Around this time in 2024, I wrote a column on Bangladesh's general election. The ruling Awami League (AL), under the Sheikh Hasina government, claimed a landslide victory. Meanwhile, citing systematic repression by the government, the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) boycotted the vote.
The result left lingering doubts about the health of the South Asian nation's democracy.
Bangladesh will hold its first general election in two years on February 12, 2026. This time, however, the situation is reversed.
The Hasina administration collapsed amid protests led by Gen Z and opposition parties, forcing her to resign swiftly and flee to India. The AL has been barred from contesting the election, and the BNP is widely expected to prevail.
Shift Puts India on Edge
For neighboring regional power India, the situation in Bangladesh is a major concern.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a Hindu nationalist, has long supported Hasina. The AL remains grateful to New Delhi for its pivotal role in Bangladesh's independence from Pakistan.
In contrast, the BNP, allied with Islamist parties, takes a more conciliatory stance toward Pakistan, India's historical rival.
To that end, India continues to harbor Hasina and has refused to comply with Bangladesh's request for her extradition.
As bilateral relations deteriorated, an interim government was formed in Bangladesh following the collapse of the Hasina administration. It has since moved to adopt a friendlier posture toward Pakistan, a country that, like Bangladesh, has Islam as its state religion.
Bangladesh's Tilt
According to a Pakistani military announcement on January 6, the chief of the Bangladesh Air Force met with his Pakistani counterpart in Islamabad, where he praised Pakistan's combat achievements.
The two sides also held detailed discussions on Bangladesh's possible procurement of the JF-17 Thunder fighter jet, jointly developed by Pakistan and China.
After forging a close strategic relationship in recent years, China and Pakistan increasingly find themselves confronting India.
In Kashmir, a region claimed by all three nuclear-armed states, fighting broke out in 2025 between India and Pakistan following a terrorist attack by Islamist militants. During the clashes, the JF-17 Thunder was deployed alongside Chinese-made fighter jets. Pakistan has also claimed that a JF-17 shot down an Indian aircraft back in 2019.
Moreover, Islamist parties that were once outlawed under the Hasina administration participated in Bangladesh's recent general election and are likely to wield influence going forward.
For India, which has repeatedly suffered terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists, Bangladesh's rapprochement with Pakistan and the resurgence of Islamist parties are a source of unease.
Violence Sparks Backlash
Tensions between the two countries are increasingly spilling over to the citizen level as well.
What set off the unrest was the December 2025 shooting in Dhaka of a man who had led anti-Hasina protests two years earlier and been openly critical of India.
He had recently announced his candidacy for the general election and was shot as he was leaving a mosque.
According to local reports, the gunman is believed to have fled to India. The killing sparked large-scale anti-India protests across Bangladesh, with even major newspapers perceived as "pro-India" leaning coming under attack.
In a separate incident, a Hindu man was assaulted, set on fire, and killed. His death provoked outrage — this time in India — directed at Bangladesh, and prompted similar protests.
Both countries have been forced to restrict their respective visa issuance operations as a result.
Rahman's Rise and Regional Stakes
Former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, a longtime rival of Hasina and BNP leader, passed away in December.
Her eldest son, Tarique Rahman, who had been living in exile in the United Kingdom, returned to Bangladesh shortly before his mother's death and assumed the party leadership in January.
He is widely seen as a leading contender for the next prime minister.
But if Rahman's BNP were to suppress opposition forces as Hasina once did, the turmoil would likely not subside. Likewise, how the new administration manages relations with India will be crucial for Bangladesh's stability.
February's election is expected to shape the broader trajectory of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
RELATED:
- Developments in Bangladesh Now: Implications for India and Japan
- Bangladesh in Motion: Building New Bridges for a Shared Future
- China is Doing its Best to Capture the Moment in Bangladesh
Author: Tomoo Iwata, The Sankei Shimbun
(Read this in Japanese)
