Births Fall Below 700,000 Far Earlier Than Expected: Is There a Way Out?

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The number of children born in Japan in 2024 fell below 700,000 for the first time. This is 14 years earlier than the government had projected. The sharp decline underscores the rapid pace of the country's falling number of births.

A major factor behind the trend is the growing reluctance among young people to marry or have children, largely attributed to economic insecurity. In response, experts are calling for urgent measures to improve the financial situation of younger generations.

In 2023, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research estimated that 755,000 children would be born to Japanese citizens in 2024. It had projected that the number of births would drop below 700,000 in 2038, with a forecast of 692,000 that year.

Social Security System Under Pressure

Japan's social security system operates mainly on a pay-as-you-go model, funded by insurance premiums from the working-age population. If the number of births continues to decline at the current rate, the burden on workers will increase, putting the system's financial stability at risk.

Time is also running out to reverse the trend. The number of people born in the 1990s, who are now of marriageable age, had been steady at around 1.2 million per year. However, that figure dropped below 1.1 million in 2005 and fell to under 1 million by 2016. Future birth cohorts are expected to shrink even further.

The government has warned that the years leading up to 2030 may be the "last chance" to reverse the trend. However, effective countermeasures have yet to be implemented.

Financial Insecurity

Japan's total fertility rate, the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, also fell to a record low of 1.15. Economic uncertainty is a major reason why more young people are choosing not to marry or have children.

Takumi Fujinami, a senior researcher at the Japan Research Institute, said, "Lower-income individuals are less likely to have children. It's urgent that we improve the economic conditions of young people preparing for marriage or parenthood, for example, by raising the minimum wage."

Fujinami also noted that the decline in births is affecting not only urban areas but regional areas as well. While dual-income households are now the norm, many of these regions still lack quality job opportunities for women. He emphasized the need to "rethink how female employment is structured in regional areas too."

Author: Kazuyuki Nagahashi, The Sankei Shimbun

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