A group of skyscrapers in Xiamen, China, is seen from Lienyu Island (Little Kinmen), which is connected to Kinmen Island by a bridge. In the foreground is "Lion Island" where the Taiwanese military is stationed. January 17, Taiwan (© Sankei by Kengo Matsumoto)
The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan, edited by Matt Pottinger, is a compelling collection of well-written chapters that call on Taiwan, the United States, and their friends and allies to comprehensively and proactively enhance their individual and collective capabilities to deter the People's Republic of China (PRC) from seeking an invasion or other forms of warfare against Taiwan.
Matt Pottinger is a former journalist and United States Marine officer. He was a senior White House official during the Donald J Trump administration. In this book, he brings together an impressive array of experts to discuss the timely need for the United States, Taiwan, and their friends and allies to step up preparations to defend Taiwan against coercion and possible attack by China. This is mandatory reading for anyone interested in Taiwan, the future of the Indo-Pacific region, and the world.
Overview
The Boiling Moat is structured around a central metaphor: Taiwan, the United States, and their friends and allies should adopt a strategy that makes it extremely difficult for the PRC to launch an attack on Taiwan. While some say the PRC won't attack Taiwan, this reviewer is not one of them.
The question is no longer "if" the PRC will attack, but "when." The contributors to this edited volume, who range from policymakers and scholars to journalists and military experts, agree. They also offer their respective analyses of "how" an attack might occur. They expect maritime blockades or other means of strangulation and harassment will take place. Furthermore, they consider how Taiwan, the United States, and others must respond.
Several of the chapters include helpful lists of priorities. They help the relevant countries and their governments to frame what to adopt over the next two years. This is a recognition of the limited time that Taiwan and its allies probably have to prepare. However, it also recognizes that two years — 24 months — is probably the shortest time that defense budgets and related programs could be changed short of outright kinetic war.
Need for More 'Reflective Realism'
The book provides a sense of urgency that most other works on the subject lack. Even then, I find it lacking at times in what I call "reflective realism." Namely, are assumptions challenged as critically as they need to be?
I would argue that US and allied capabilities are weaker than believed. Also, planning and preparations are further behind than assumed, and organizational, institutional, bilateral, regional, and multilateral relationships thinner than described. Further, logistical issues, especially fuel, do not get the attention they deserve. The need is generally recognized, but the how was left undefined.
Similarly, the personalities and the human factor involved in policymaking were generally left out of the discussion. This is understandable as there are many elections this year and there have been and will be changes in administrations. However, even in the best scenarios, with full preparedness, governments, bureaucracies, militaries, and the political process may not function as desired.
Structure of the Book
The Boiling Moat is divided into four parts with 13 highly readable and generally well-integrated chapters. These are:
PART I: Overview 1
First Chapter: "The Stormy Seas of a Major Test" by Matt Pottinger
Second Chapter: "Taiwan: The Stakes" by Gabriel B Collins, Andrew S Erickson, and Matt Pottinger
Third Chapter: "The Myth of Accidental Wars" by Matt Pottinger and Matthew Turpin;
PART II: Taiwan's Job Now
Fourth Chapter: "A New Military Culture for Taiwan" by Michael A Hunzeker, Enoch Wu, and Kobi Marom
Fifth Chapter: "Countering China's Use of Force" by Ivan Kanapathy
Sixth Chapter: "Countering China's Gray-Zone Activities" by Ivan Kanapathy
PART III: America's Job Now
Seventh Chapter: "Sink China's Navy" by Robert Haddick, Mark Montgomery, and Isaac "Ike" Harris
Eighth Chapter: "Quarantines and Blockades" by Robert Haddick, Elaine Luria, and Mark Montgomery
Ninth Chapter: "Mobilizing and Equipping" by Robert Haddick
PART IV: Japan's Job Now
Tenth Chapter: "Japan as the 'Swing Vote'" by Grant Newsham
Eleventh Chapter: "The Sun Also Rises" by Yoji Koda
PART V: Australia's and Europe's Jobs Now
Twelfth Chapter: "Australia's Job Now" by Ross Babbage
Thirteenth Chapter: "Europe's Job Now" by Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Jonas Parello-Plesner
Importance of the Book
A real test of a good book is to see how many experts in the field are reading it or are aware of it. Living in Taiwan, I was able to discuss the book with many people. Furthermore, I was pleased to hear that several of my interlocutors — Taiwanese and non-Taiwanese alike — not only knew of the book but had read it. Importantly, the Europeans I spoke with in Taipei had read it, validating the decision to include a chapter entitled "Europe's Job Now."
Earlier in the summer of 2024, I gave a lecture at a defense college in a European capital and introduced the book then. I also encouraged my audience to read it, along with a few others:
- James E Fanell and Bradley A Thayer's Embracing Communist China: America's Greatest Strategic Failure
- Kerry Gershaneck's Political Warfare: Strategies for Combating China's Plan to Win without Fighting, and
- Grant Newsham's When China Attacks: A Warning to America.
The latter author also contributed a chapter to Pottinger's edited volume.
Politicians and much of the general public may not want to admit it, and adherents to the engagement school (ie, "panda huggers") don't want to acknowledge it. However, we are already in the early stages of war with China and have been so for decades. It is more than time for Taiwan, the United States, Japan, and their friends and allies to prepare and be able to fight back. Pottinger's book provides just such a roadmap, and in a very timely manner.
About the Book:
Title: The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan
Author: Matt Pottinger (editor)
Publisher: Hoover Institution Press (2024)
ISBN: ISBN 978-0-8179-2645-8 (paperback)
Format: Paperback : 288 pages, July 2024, $25.95
For further information: Or to purchase, see the publisher's homepage for this volume.
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Reviewed by: Robert D Eldridge, PhD
Dr Eldridge is a former political advisor to the US Marine Corps in Japan, author of numerous books on Japanese political and diplomatic history, and a 2024 Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Fellow at Tamkang University.
