The National Diet Building, with the Lower House on the left — Nagatacho, Tokyo.
What an extraordinary start to the New Year. The administration of United States President Donald Trump launched a surprise intervention on Venezuela and detained President Nicolás Maduro, a leader known for his staunch anti-American actions. Meanwhile in Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the country's first female prime minister, decided to dissolve the Lower House just three months after taking office.
Since assuming office in October 2025, Takaichi had focused on economic measures and been cautious about calling an early election. Her abrupt shift to what has been described as a "surprise dissolution" may reflect a judgment that external pressure — including China's export restrictions on Japan — is likely to intensify.
Countries such as China and Russia are gaining influence while continuing to disregard international law and human rights. Meanwhile, conflict, confrontation, and repression are spreading across many regions. To face this global situation, Japan needs a strong and stable governing foundation.
Unlike authoritarian states, legitimacy in democratic nations can come only through fair elections. With cabinet approval ratings high, PM Takaichi likely concluded that the Liberal Democratic Party could substantially increase its seats in the Lower House and aim for an outright majority of 233.
The outcome of the upcoming Lower House election will play a crucial role in shaping Japan's future. If a Taiwan contingency were to occur, it could become what Takaichi has described in a Diet session as a "Japan contingency," potentially forcing the country to fundamentally reshape itself.
Nuclear Debate
One of JAPAN Forward's most read articles in December 2025 examined the debate over whether Japan should acquire nuclear weapons. Professor John Mearsheimer, an international relations scholar at the University of Chicago, visited Japan for the first time in 11 years and delivered a lecture in Tokyo. During the talk, he said, "In an ideal world, Japan would have nuclear weapons now, because nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent."
He also predicted that if the United States were to hesitate at a decisive moment, Japan would have "a very powerful incentive" to acquire its own nuclear deterrent.
In postwar Japan, discussion of nuclear armament has long been taboo. It is the only country to have experienced atomic bombings against a civilian population, in Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II. The kind of shift Professor Mearsheimer describes would signal that the geopolitical environment surrounding Japan has entered a phase that some might compare to a prelude to a potential conflict situation.
Okinawa on the Front Line
That changing security reality is being felt in Okinawa, Japan's southernmost prefecture. In the event of a Taiwan contingency, Okinawa would be on the front line of the conflict. In January, JAPAN Forward reporter Kenji Yoshida traveled there and spoke with politicians, experts, and local residents, capturing candid perspectives across the spectrum.
What emerged was the reality of Okinawa living in a precarious balance. JAPAN Forward published Yoshida's report, and it quickly became one of the site's most-read articles of the week.
Amid these developments, welcomed 2026, the Year of the Horse with an uplifting piece, introducing our annual tradition of selecting a "kanji of the New Year." This year's character is "smile," chosen by the popular calligrapher Shoko Kanazawa, who has Down syndrome.
There is a Japanese proverb: "Good fortune comes to those who smile." The New Year has begun under circumstances that may leave us on the edge, but that makes it all the more important to welcome good fortune with a smile.
Watch for the next issue on February 16 and follow JAPAN Forward as we report on the upcoming Lower House election and its consequences.
JAPAN Forward is a media outlet driven by an unparalleled passion to advance the future of Japan and its role in the world. For inquiries, please call 0570-033-433 (Sankei iD) or email us at info@japan-forward.com.
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Author: Yasuo Naito, Editor in Chief
