The China Factor in US Elections

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken went on a three-day trip to China in April 2024. At its close, he alleged that the US saw evidence of Chinese attempts to influence and interfere with the upcoming US elections. 

Speaking in an interview, Blinken remarked, "We have seen evidence of attempts to influence and arguably interfere, and we want to make sure that that is cut off as quickly as possible [...] Any interference by China in our election is something that we are looking very carefully at and is totally unacceptable to us, so I wanted to make sure that they heard that message again."

Japan's Stand on Regional Security

Nations including Japan have accurately been portraying China as a regional security threat. While Blinken was in China, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was visiting the US. In his address to the US Congress, he placed China and Russia's military actions as top threats. Kishida termed Beijing's military actions "an unprecedented and greatest strategic challenge" to the world, vowing deeper strategic cooperation with Washington.

Blinken's trip marked his second visit to China in less than a year. The string of high-level engagements between Washington and Beijing have continued unabated. Blinken's meetings with top Chinese officials, including Xi Jinping, navigated a raft of contentious issues. These included US tech controls to Beijing's support for Moscow and deepening Sino-Russian ties. However, they failed to yield any noteworthy breakthroughs. 

Exploiting Social Divisions

Blinken is said to have reiterated President Joe Biden's message to Xi Jinping at the November 2023 San Francisco summit. He urged China not to interfere in the 2024 US presidential elections. 

There have been mounting concerns and talk about China and other nations using influence campaigns to exploit social divisions in the US. Concerns have also been growing about China's political interference in countries like Canada.

Meanwhile, the CCP-affiliated newspaper, Global Times published an opinion piece titled "US' China strategy shadowed by toxic political atmosphere amid approaching election" on June 10, 2024. The op-ed quotes Biden describing China's economy as being "on the brink." 

The Global Times questioned the "political stage atmosphere" in the US. It also accused politicians of resorting to "sensational rhetoric […] while rational and pragmatic policy discussions are marginalized." 

Beijing has often highlighted shifts in the American political landscape that are driving its leaders into the swamp of populism. However, forceful political rhetoric is not confined to the US alone. The CCP has forever used "US and imperialism" as its most preferred political and strategic punching bag to consolidate its domestic political space.

China's Economy

Despite its media propaganda, China's industrial output growth has slowed due to the property crisis weighing on its economy. The real estate market slump is deepening, with property prices falling more sharply. Recently, The Financial Times reported that property investment in the five months to the end of May declined by 10.1% year on year. Furthermore, residential property sales tumbled by 30.5%. This data underlines the challenges for Beijing as it struggles to stabilize the property market. The latter's prolonged slump has impacted broader economic growth.

Goldman Sachs analysts said that the data and research on China's activity in the first half of June indicate that "significant cross-sector divergences remain in the economy." They highlighted "strong exports and manufacturing activity" but a "still-depressed property activity."

China's current domestic effective demand remains insufficient, and its economy faces grave challenges. Naturally, this aspect of America's most prominent strategic and economic challenger will be highlighted as a key campaign issue. This will be much to Beijing's disdain given that its long game would be better served by expanding divisions inside America's political landscape.

Beyond Mere Rhetoric

China-US relations appear headed for a face-off. There seems to be no hope for significant improvement in bilateral ties, be it a Trump, Biden, or any other presidency. Tensions will prevail with Beijing's (and Beijing-Moscow's) long game with the West likely to play all out. China's behavior during the past decades is that of a revisionist state that is singularly engaged in the deliberate and determined construction of what it calls "comprehensive national power." China is not taking any chances in its strategic calculations for territorial expansion within Asia and beyond.

The China factor has been a recurring and prominent campaign issue in the US presidential elections. And the trend is likely to be seen yet again this time. It remains to be seen whether the next American president will implement campaign rhetoric into actual policies and actions.

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Author: Dr Monika Chansoria

Learn more about Dr Chansoria and follow her column "All Politics is Global" on JAPAN Forward, and on X (formerly Twitter). The views expressed here are those of the author and do not reflect the views of any organization with which she is affiliated.