The direction China takes has a significant impact both globally and regionally. If the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) continues down its current path, is a local debt implosion and a collapse of the banking system inevitable? Could the CCP really start a war to deflect from domestic crises? Inside China, many developments are unfolding, and they are closely connected to the region and the rest of the world, including Japan.
A Leader Vanishes Amid Speculation
From May 21 to June 3, 2025, Xi Jinping did not appear publicly. His 14-day absence fueled widespread speculation about his grip on power. This absence, coupled with unusual developments in the CCP, echoes historical patterns of leadership transitions in China. From the mysterious death of a key military figure to subtle shifts in state media, the signs point to a potential power struggle at the highest levels.
Drawing on historical precedents and recent updates, this article examines the unfolding situation and its implications for China's future.
Xi Jinping's Absence: An Ominous Sign
Xi Jinping's 14-day disappearance from public view is unprecedented in its context. Unlike previous absences, such as in 2012, when he was consolidating power before becoming General Secretary, or in 2023, when a rumored brain surgery kept him out of sight, this time, his absence follows persistent rumors of a power struggle.
Reports suggest Xi may have lost influence as early as April 2024, with loyal military factions attempting but failing to restore his authority.
Notably, Xi's wife, Peng Liyuan, has not accompanied him on recent foreign trips. And his domestic entourage has been downgraded. Lower-ranking officials like Vice Premier He Lifeng are replacing senior figures like Cai Qi.
Unusual Signals from the CCP's Core
The CCP's operations have also shown alarming irregularities. The Political Bureau, which typically meets monthly, failed to convene in late May 2025. That was despite rumors of an earlier meeting to oust Xi.
State media, particularly People's Daily, took the highly unusual step of omitting Xi Jinping and other top leaders from its front pages for three consecutive days, from June 2 to June 4, 2025. Instead, they focused on mundane topics like carbon reduction and regional development.
A Liberation Army Daily article on May 30, titled "Public Power Must Serve the Public," indirectly criticized Xi, warning against the misuse of power. It was a message amplified by other official outlets. These anomalies further suggest a deliberate distancing from Xi's leadership.
The Mysterious Death of Xu Qiliang
The death of Xu Qiliang, a former vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission and a close ally of Xi, also adds to the intrigue.
Officially announced on June 3, 2025, Xu's death was reported five days earlier by former Chinese journalist Zhao Lanjian, who claimed Xu was "scared to death" amid intense pressure.
Xu, who worked closely with Xi during their time in Fuzhou in the late 1980s and early 1990s, played a key role in Xi's military reforms. His sudden death, with no clear cause disclosed, has sparked speculation about its connection to Xi's rumored decline. This was especially noted as other military loyalists like He Weidong and Miao Hua have recently fallen from grace.
Quiet Reshuffles at the Provincial Level
Amid Xi's uncertain status, several high-level personnel changes have occurred discreetly.
On May 30, 2025, Zheng Yanxiong was removed as director of the Central Government Liaison Office in Hong Kong. Some link that move to the potential rise of Wang Yang, a reform-minded figure rumored to be Xi's successor.
Wang, known for his moderate handling of the 2011 Wukan village protests, contrasts sharply with Xi's hardline policies, such as the 2016 crackdown on Wukan's democratic elections.
Other provincial and ministerial officials were also replaced, signaling a broader reshuffling that may reflect a power transition in progress.
Historical Parallels: The Fall of Past Leaders
The CCP has a history of delayed announcements when leaders lose power. Hua Guofeng, Mao Zedong's successor, was sidelined for over three years from 1978 to 1981 after clashing with Deng Xiaoping's reforms.
Hu Yaobang's resignation as General Secretary in January 1987 was only confirmed in October, nine months later.
Zhao Ziyang, ousted in May 1989 for sympathizing with student protesters, still made public appearances, including a speech at Tiananmen Square, before his removal was formalized.
These cases suggest Xi could remain a figurehead even if his power has eroded, as the CCP maintains a facade of unity.
Social Unrest and Systemic Anxiety
At the grassroots level, tensions are palpable. On May 20, 2025, a worker in Sichuan, dubbed "Brother 800," set fire to a textile factory after being denied 800 RMB ($111 USD) in wages. His action burned for 37 hours and caused significant damage.
Public sentiment online overwhelmingly supported the worker, reflecting deep frustration with systemic inequality.
Meanwhile, scholar Yuan Hongbing reports that mid- and lower-level CCP officials are forming "cliques" across military, political, and business sectors to protect themselves in anticipation of regime collapse, highlighting the widespread anxiety permeating Chinese society.
Conclusion: A Nation at a Crossroads
China stands at a pivotal moment. The CCP's upcoming Fourth Plenary Session, reportedly planned for August 2025, may clarify Xi Jinping's fate and the country's direction.
Will new leaders abandon the Party's authoritarian model? Or will they scapegoat Xi while preserving the system? As rumors swirl and historical patterns resurface, the world watches closely.
For now, the abnormalities surrounding Xi and the cracks in the CCP's facade signal a profound uncertainty about China's future trajectory.
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Author: Jennifer Zeng
Find Jennifer Zeng's articles on JAPAN Forward. Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) and on her blog page, Jennifer's World.
