China's ICBM Progress Marks a New Phase in Nuclear Competition

In April 2024, intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos covered with camouflage nets were observed in China's Gansu Province near Yumen. Satellite analysis by the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals (JINF), whose president is journalist Yoshiko Sakurai, reveals progress toward missile loading, including the removal of camouflage nets. Security and surveillance facilities around the silos are nearing completion, indicating the silos could be operational soon.

Satellite Imagery Reveals Secret Silos

China has not yet disclosed these silos. However, it has constructed extensive ICBM silo fields in Yumen (Western Gansu Province), Hami (Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region), and Hanggin (Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region).

At the Yumen silo site, dome-shaped covers previously concealed excavation work. By April 2024, China had removed some of these covers and placed camouflage nets over them. This is consistent with preparation for missile installation. Internal wiring and other adjustments for operational readiness also appeared to be underway.

In September 2024, satellite imagery showed that some camouflage nets had been removed and silo lids were in place. The lids, measuring approximately six meters in diameter, are consistent with the size specifications of the DF-31 series missiles.

Vehicle platforms about 21 meters wide further support these dimensions, accommodating missiles that are 2.25 meters in diameter and 13 meters in length. Although the images show different silos, China's progress towards completing its silos is evident.

*An intercontinental ballistic missile silo covered with camouflage nets, Yumen, Gansu Province, China, April 2024 (©Japan Institute for National Fundamentals).*

China's Rush to 'Strategic Parity'

Around the silos, China is constructing structures consistent with military barracks, security, and surveillance facilities. September imagery also revealed four military vehicles parked at a security facility, suggesting the presence of a small platoon-sized garrison.

China carried out the test launch of a solid-fuel DF-31AG missile from Hainan Island into the Pacific in September 2024. Analysts think the same missile type is likely intended for these silos. Unlike domestic tests, the September launch was intended to demonstrate China's capabilities to the United States, despite the signal interception and component recovery risk.

JINF analyzes that this was a near-operational flight test with a simulated warhead. It was conducted at a maximum range estimated at 11,700 km, surpassing the missile's declared range of 11,200 km. In other words, it successfully demonstrated the missile's capability of reaching targets as far as Washington, DC.

Greater Need for Deterrence

China currently has 140 ICBM launchers and silos. With the full operation of its three silo fields, however, this could increase to approximately 450, surpassing America's 400 silos. By 2030, China's ICBM force may match that of the US.

As the JINF analysis warns, "The operationalization of these silo fields will significantly enhance China's nuclear capabilities. If the missile test was as successful as reported, this marks a major step toward a mutually assured destruction strategy with the US."

The institute cautions that nuclear parity with the US could embolden China as a nuclear superpower. One concern is whether Beijing would then use force to alter the status quo with neighboring countries, as Russia did in Ukraine. The JINF report also urges Japan to strengthen its deterrence capabilities in response to this growing threat.

(Read the article in Japanese.)

Author: Takashi Arimoto