The Chinese military transported this missile in a specially designed vehicle during exercises around Taiwan, according to China's state-run CCTV online edition. October 14, 2024. (©Kyodo)
With its hegemonic status acquired from its economic and Chinese military muscle, China seems determined to rewrite global laws on its own terms. This is unnerving news to its neighbors who face the heat anytime Beijing threatens or flexes its military muscle. Just take a look at the Senkaku Islands issue with Japan, the South China Sea issue with a host of Southeast Asian nations, or the long-festering Himalayan border disputes with India. Then there is the Taiwan issue.
In all cases, China's ties with these countries are on the edge. Its rivalry with the United States over trade and economic issues also threatens the global order.
To complicate the issue further, China has now increased the nuclear warheads in its possession to over 600. This directly raises strategic stability concerns. By improving the diversity and sophistication of its arsenal like precision-strike capable missiles, drone swarms, and stealth fighters, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) electronic warfare "kill list" has acquired greater teeth for dealing with the US carrier group.
The immediate objective is to intimidate Taiwan, which China considers its own territory. Beijing wants to integrate it with the mainland by peaceful means and, if necessary by the use of force. This is troubling news for the region, which must prepare to face the unforeseen consequences.
Pentagon Report
The recent Pentagon report on China's nuclear warheads is indeed very chilling. It is called the China Military Power Report. Issued annually for the past two decades, it is the most comprehensive unclassified report detailing China's defense capability.
Two decades ago, China had a very small and relatively outdated nuclear arsenal. Over time, that has expanded to a nuclear triad with the PLA Navy's ballistic missile submarines conducting deterrence patrols. It has also acquired precision-strike capable missiles with lower-yield nuclear warheads.
The Pentagon routinely assesses China's nuclear arsenal development. The latest information acquired by the Pentagon in fact exceeds what it expected. The 2021 report noted that Beijing's nuclear warheads could top 1,000 by 2030. In May 2023, the Pentagon estimated that China could possess more than 500 operational nuclear warheads. That number surged by about 20% to 600 according to the latest report.
Despite this surge, China's total nuclear warheads are eclipsed compared to the 3,748 active US nuclear warheads (in 2023). According to the Federation of American Scientists' 2024 Status of World Nuclear Forces report, the US has about 5,000 nuclear warheads. That is just behind Russia's approximately 5,500 warheads.
Opaque Policies and Programs
Beijing argues that the United States and Russia jointly hold the largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons. Therefore, Beijing says, the onus lies on those two countries to curb their arsenals before sermonizing to others. A premise for China's argument is its rejection of the international arms control agreements that would limit its growth. Furthermore, Beijing justified the surge in nuclear warheads as a measure to meet its national security needs.
The biggest worry is that there is no transparency in Beijing's claims. Therefore, it is difficult to gain an accurate perspective on its position. This concerns not only the number of nuclear warheads ー there is also a lack of transparency in China's defense spending. That is believed to be about 40 to 90% higher than figures released by the government. However, there is no doubt that Beijing's long-term ambition is to become a global military power to challenge the US at will. The growing bonhomie between China and Russia further encourages Beijing to pursue its long-term goal.
Does this mean that China is seeking nuclear parity with the US and Russia? That may not be the case. More probably China aims to achieve a retaliatory capability threshold first. That would mean marginal increases in nuclear weapons that have strategic significance. It is also what Oriana Skylar Mastro of Stanford University argues in her latest book, Upstart: How China Became a Great Power released by Oxford University Press in October 2024.
Shortcomings and Deficiencies
The surge in nuclear warheads mentioned in the Pentagon report may be working to intimidate the outside world. However, mere numbers do not add to Beijing's nuclear teeth. There are shortcomings and deficiencies in the quality of its personnel that could limit Beijing's ability to match the US.
Moreover, the PLA has not been able to maintain honesty and integrity among its officials.
Several Chinese defense officials have been investigated or deposed. For example, Miao Hua, the director of the Central Military Commission's Political Work Department was recently investigated for suspected "serious violation of discipline," a common euphemism for corruption. Such examples indicate serious deficiencies in Beijing's and the PLA's ability to execute its capabilities.
If this demonstrates the fragility of Beijing's defense and delivery capabilities, how seriously should one take Beijing's continuous threat of military action against Taiwan? Looking at the past two years, Beijing is unlikely to be getting close to executing a "short, sharp invasion of Taiwan at an acceptable cost." Thus, an invasion seems neither imminent nor inevitable.
This does not mean to suggest that the US has changed its position in seeing 2027 as a critical point for a serious military threat to Taiwan by Beijing. Thus Taiwan continues to remain a potential flashpoint between the two powers.
Third Countries' Commitment to the Status Quo
Most countries, including the United States, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state. Like India, the US and Japan also maintain an economic and cultural representative office in Taipei. No less than an embassy, these represent their counties' opposition to any attempt to take the island by force. Also, in the case of the US, its commitment to supplying Taiwan with defensive weapons. That remains a sore point between the US and China.
Washington is also aware of China's energy vulnerabilities. It faces challenges in securing cost-effective and diverse hydrocarbon supplies. If Beijing initiates a military conflict in Taiwan, the US and other stakeholders could enforce a naval blockade, denying Beijing a significant amount of its hydrocarbon imports. At this point, Beijing has no answer to these vulnerabilities.
Impact on Japan
Japan remains protected under the US nuclear umbrella. Nevertheless, it is a non-nuclear country surrounded by three nuclear states – China, Russia and North Korea. In its neighborhood, its security vulnerabilities are understandable. How does then Japan respond to the threats China's nuclear weapons modernization poses to it? One obvious choice is by further deepening its cooperation with the United States.
Japan may believe that China's growing nuclear capabilities are not directed at it. However, there are concerns within the Japanese community about the potential use of nuclear weapons against Japan. These perceived threats from China's military buildup have led Japanese policymakers to reconsider and reevaluate security policies.
The most significant shift is the renewal of Japan's National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Defense Buildup Program 2022. While there is no deviation from the belief that the alliance with the US remains the cornerstone of Japan's security policy, Tokyo also realizes that it needs to work hand in hand with the Americans to respond to potential threats posed to Japan as well as the broader region.
Japan takes solace that since 2010 the bilateral Extended Deterrence Dialogue has been an important mechanism for reconfirming the US commitment to Japan. Moreover, it has also become a key mechanism for sending a strong message to China.
An Asian Nato?
Despite assurances from the US, concerns do remain within Japan about its security protection. There are occasional talks about whether it's time to revisit the nuclear option that could deter China from taking any military actions.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba shared his views concerning the defense of Japan with the Hudson Institute in September 2024. In it, he called for the formation of an Asian version of NATO, a multilateral grouping whereby each member commits to mutual deterrence against the nuclear alliance of China, Russia, and North Korea. Analysts quickly questioned whether Ishiba was advocating a reversal of Japan's decades-old anti-nuclear policy. Japan has the means. Whether or not it has the political will deserves a separate detailed analysis.
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Author: Rajaram Panda, PhD
Dr Rajaram Panda is a senior scholar from India who has taught in and carried out research on Japan for the past 50 years. His latest book is India and Japan: Past, Present and Future (July 2024 by Knowledge World Publisher).
