Contingency in the Taiwan Strait: Japan Must Speak Frankly Now

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United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made a strong statement on March 30 following his first meeting with Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani. "America and Japan stand firmly together in the face of aggressive and coercive actions by the Communist Chinese," he declared. "Japan," he added, "would be on the front lines of any contingency we might face in the western Pacific, and we stand together in support of each other."

What does this mean? The Japanese government must clearly explain it to the public.

In doing so, the government must carefully communicate the following:

1. A crisis involving a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan is drawing closer
2. This crisis is not unrelated to Japan's own survival
3. Japan has been preparing to respond to such a crisis together with the US and other allies
4. When the time comes, Japan will take the initiative in addressing the situation.

China's Escalation in the Indo-Pacific

Since entering the 21st century, China has experienced extraordinary economic growth. Around 2010, it began increasingly assertive actions in the Indo-Pacific region. 

It built military bases in the South China Sea and openly declared its intention to "unify" Taiwan. Furthermore, it conducted repeated military operations in the Okinawa and Nansei Islands area and now regularly threatens Japan's Senkaku Islands.

In the face of China's military rise, Japan had several options.

The first option was to tolerate China's aggressive external behavior and accept falling under its influence.

Tokyo's second option was to rely on Washington to contain China's attempts at unilaterally changing the status quo by force. However, given China's emergence as a military superpower, the US can no longer contain it alone.

Abe's Third Path

The second Shinzo Abe administration, launched in December 2012, chose a third path: to resist China's coercion through Japan's own economic development, military preparedness, and unification of the liberal democratic bloc.

For over half a century after World War II, Japan relied on the US for its security. However, Japan must take proactive measures, or it risks losing not only the free and open Indo-Pacific order — essential for its trade-based economy —  but also its own territories like the Senkaku Islands.

Abe's administration promoted economic growth through Abenomics while creating Japan's first-ever National Security Strategy in 2013. This laid the groundwork for a national structure where the country protects itself. It enacted a series of laws to enable response to contingencies, including the Act on the Protection of Specially Designated Secrets and Legislation for Peace and Security. 

In parallel, it strengthened the US-Japan alliance while also forging military cooperation with nations such as Australia, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, and India.

Kishida Administration's Reinforcement

Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's administration further reinforced this strategy. In December 2022, it introduced a new national strategy emphasizing counterstrike capabilities. Simultaneously, it began fundamentally strengthening Japan's defense over five years with a defense budget of ¥43 trillion JPY (approximately $293 billion USD).

Specific measures included enhancing capabilities in space, cyberspace, and electromagnetic domains. They also strengthened the defense of the southwestern islands, stockpiling ammunition and fuel and developing evacuation plans for Okinawa and nearby islands. 

While continuing dialogue with China, Japan has spent the past decade strengthening deterrence and response capabilities through the US-Japan alliance and building ties with like-minded countries. To prevent war with a power like China that respects only force, one must also demonstrate power. The goal is to prevent a Taiwan contingency and protect the free and open Indo-Pacific.

China Rehearses Military Invasion

However, Chinese President Xi Jinping's regime has shown no intent to abandon the option of "armed unification" with Taiwan. Xi's military continues to conduct large-scale exercises around Taiwan. These are no longer merely for intimidation.

On February 13, Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, reported at the Honolulu Defense Forum that China's military drills have expanded from six brigades in 2022 to 42 brigades involving 150 vessels and 200 amphibious combat vehicles by the summer of 2024. He warned these were "not exercises. They are rehearsals."

In response to this increasingly dire assessment, the United States passed the National Defense Authorization Act for FY2025 on December 23, 2024, setting a defense budget of $895 billion. This marks a nearly 1.5-fold increase over America's 2015 budget of $560.4 billion. The clear objective: deterring China. Washington is giving it everything it has.

Yet, even this may not be enough to prevent a Taiwan contingency. A scenario in which China, in coordination with Russia and North Korea, simultaneously provokes conflict in Taiwan, the Korean Peninsula, and the South China Sea is also possible. The current US military force alone may not be able to respond to all of these threats.

That is why Secretary Hegseth has called on Japan to work with the US to address conflicts not only on Japanese soil, but also in the wider western Pacific, including Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Time for Japan to Speak Frankly

Now is the time for the Japanese government to frankly explain to the public the true nature of the threats facing the nation and the steps taken so far.

The government must clearly explain to the public why further increases in defense spending are essential. At the same time, it must move without delay to make full-scale contingency preparations. It should also take steps to formalize a defense relationship with Taiwan. Ultimately, the government must lead the nation in revising the constitution to define the Self-Defense Forces as a military.

If Japan truly wishes for peace, it must also be prepared for war.

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(Read the Seiron article in Japanese.)

Author: Michio Ezaki

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