Inside the Pradhanmantri Sangrahalaya in New Delhi, featuring panels of all former and current Prime Ministers of India. (©JAPAN Forward by Kenji Yoshida)
Sunlight pours over the bustling streets of Delhi. At first glance, the city appears chaotic — crowded sidewalks, blaring horns, and ceaseless motion. Yet beneath the clamour lies a rhythm of its own.
So too is India's position in the world. Though seemingly complex and at times contradictory, a closer look reveals a clear trajectory.
I recently returned from a familiarization tour hosted by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, where 14 journalists from seven countries traveled from Delhi to Mumbai.
Beyond glimpses of scenic beaches and the Taj Mahal, the program provided us with rare access to senior officials, policy makers, and diplomats across the region.
In our many conversations, one question kept lingering: Can India's "strategic autonomy" endure in a rapidly shifting global order?
Autonomy Under Pressure
For a country like Japan, firmly tethered to the American orbit, the idea of strategic autonomy can feel almost foreign. India, by contrast, has embraced it as a cornerstone of its foreign policy since gaining independence in 1947. In the decades after the Cold War, the country leveraged multilateral partnerships to expand its diplomatic space.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has become the contemporary embodiment of this balancing act. Modi, for instance, attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin in August but notably skipped China's Victory Day parade — a gesture closely watched in Western capitals.
And when confronted with Trump-era tariffs, India, unlike most of Washington's allies, stood its ground.
Yet this longstanding doctrine is coming under unprecedented scrutiny, driven primarily by mounting US pressure.
In August, Washington imposed tariffs of up to 50% on major Indian exports. With shipments to the US projected at roughly $86.5 billion USD in fiscal year 2024–25, key domestic sectors such as textiles, chemicals, jewelry, and seafood are feeling the heaviest burden.
American grievances run deeper than trade imbalances or demands to halt Russian oil imports. At issue are vexations over Modi's subsidy-heavy "Make in India" agenda, which the Trump administration views as a barrier to open-market access.
Modi's Economic Hurdles
Adding to the tensions is President Trump's proposed reform to the H-1B visa program, which would impose fees of up to $100,000 per new applicant.
The stakes are high. India's IT sector accounts for roughly 8% of GDP, with the US as its largest market. Given that Indians comprise more than 70% of H-1B visa holders, new restrictions could disrupt not only major tech firms such as Infosys and TCS, but also smaller and mid-sized companies that rely on overseas placements.
At home, challenges persist as well. Despite steady economic growth, job creation has not kept pace, leaving many youth and college-educated workers facing employment stagnation.
Public sentiment toward Modi, now in his eleventh year in office, has correspondingly moderated.
Resilience in Action
Still, India's potential remains immense.
Faced with American protectionism, it has moved to widen trade with Africa and the broader Global South, reaching nearly $100 billion in commerce with African nations in 2024–25. Trade with ASEAN and Latin America is also accelerating.
The move goes beyond simply diversifying export destinations. It reflects a deliberate effort to reshape supply chains and demand structures, broadening India's strategic options and reinforcing its ability to act independently on the global stage.
In one of our discussions, the deputy general manager of India's Export-Import Bank acknowledged the intensity of US pressure and outlined measures to shield exporters. In September, the bank rolled out additional credit support for companies affected by the tariffs.
Digital and Strategic Frontiers
India's digital economy mirrors a similar proactive approach. Its startup ecosystem — the world's third largest — has produced dozens of unicorns (startups valued at over $1 billion), cementing the country's status as an emerging hub for data and technology.
Central to this growth is a resilient national infrastructure like the Unified Payments Interface (UPI). As one local journalist noted, "India's UPI, overseen by the nonprofit NPCI, has evolved from a mere payment system into a nationwide network integrating healthcare, education, and public services."
By August 2025, UPI was processing over 20 billion monthly transactions, with adoption spreading to several countries, including the UAE, Singapore, and France.
Strategic industries beyond tech are also drawing attention. India, ranked 16th globally in shipbuilding, aims to break into the top ten under the "Maritime India Vision 2030." Partnerships with established shipbuilding powers like South Korea and Japan are deepening to support this ambitious goal.
As it happened, Modi's cabinet approved a $10 billion comprehensive plan to accelerate shipbuilding development during our visit.
New World, Renewed Doctrine
That said, realizing India's full potential will also require a recalibration of its external strategy.
Defensive responses to US pressures alone may not suffice. Incremental reforms on subsidies and market access will need to be paired with an active exploration of new demands and innovation.
India's engagement in international frameworks should follow the same forward-looking logic. The Quad, for example, should evolve beyond a consultative forum into a platform where India proactively sets agendas on maritime security, supply chains, and emerging technologies.
Such leadership would not only broaden India's global influence but also help mitigate Washington's apprehensions over Delhi's role in BRICS and other multilateral groupings.
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Author: Kenji Yoshida
