Deterring North Korea, Why It's Expensive but Essential

Kim Jong Un of North Korea wants his army to be equipped with swarms of kamikaze drones that detonate bombs upon impact with their targets. 

An expression of joy appeared on the leader's face as he watched the machines cause explosions during a drill in Pyongyang. They simulated an attack on the South Korean army, with a mission to eliminate its K2 Black Panther tanks. 

Similar drones are being used on the frontlines of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. The individual payload of each aircraft is relatively small and their range is quite limited. However, when they fly in formation they have great destructive power and are very hard to shoot down. 

North Korea says it is amassing the drones to strike "any enemy target." 

Rising Risks 

Kim Jong Un controls a militarized state which is working to advance its nuclear and missile programs. According to Daily NK, its army, the Korean People's Army, is currently conducting drills for nuclear war. 

It says it's training its soldiers how to launch nuclear warheads from hidden mobile platforms. The goal is to enable surprise attacks.

Because North Korea's media is filled with distortion, it is difficult to assess its real capabilities. The North recently claimed it had fired an "advanced multiple warhead missile" but South Korea dismissed this as an exaggeration. 

Japan's Defense Minister Minoru Kihara believes North Korea will continue with further provocations, such as launching more missiles into the Sea of Japan. In response, the Ministry of Defense (MoD) in Tokyo has developed a detailed plan to strengthen the nation's defenses. 

Japan's Countermeasures 

The MoD report will be essential reading for Japan's next prime minister. That person will replace Fumio Kishida following a vote for the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party, which is due to take place in late September. 

Mr Kishida has been a strong advocate for higher defense spending during his term in office. That goal is also shared by most of the candidates who are vying to replace him. 

The proposal from the defense ministry is expensive. It is requesting the largest-ever annual budget, amounting to about ¥8.5 trillion JPY ($60 billion USD). Lawmakers will vote on the matter in the Diet later in 2024. 

In 2022, the Diet authorized Japan's military to develop what has become known as a "counterstrike" ability. That allows the JSDF to strike enemy bases if Japan faces an imminent attack. 

Real Threat 

The violent rhetoric from North Korea furthermore remains as aggressive as ever. Its propaganda dubs Japan and the United States as "enemy nations" and earlier in 2024, Kim Jong Un used the same term to describe South Korea. 

"North Korea strongly emphasizes cruelty to the enemy," warns Fyodor Tertitskiy from Kookmin University in South Korea. 

"While most cultures stress that even enemy soldiers are human beings, North Korean propaganda erases the humanity of Americans and Japanese." 

He believes that the North Koreans are also trying to dehumanize people from the South. Previously the message was that South Korea should be liberated. Now, however, the North describes the South as an "enemy state" that should be wiped out, says Dr Teritkskiy. 

Change in Approach 

Kim Jong Un shows no inclination to halt or even scale back his weapons program. Meanwhile, his powerful sister Kim Yo-Jong has referred to South Koreans as "scum." 

Although Japan, South Korea, and China continue to pay diplomatic lip service to the idea of using dialogue to achieve denuclearization, in reality, the emphasis is almost entirely upon deterrence. 

Inevitably, to counter serious threats such as North Korea, Japan must work closely with its ally, the United States. However, in Washington, North Korea's denuclearization is widely viewed as a "mission impossible." That is according to Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation. 

"I think it is fair to say that the US government is now more focused on deterrence, which is largely succeeding, than on denuclearization," Mr Bennett told VOA Korean. 

"This change does not mean that the US and South Korea have abandoned trying to negotiate for denuclearization ー which North Korea steadfastly refuses to do. But rather that our governments no longer see denuclearization as a viable solution to the North Korean nuclear weapon threat." 

Show of Strength

The next Japanese prime minister needs to ensure that the National Security Strategy is robust and well-resourced. This is important to restore trust with voters. It can also form the bedrock for cooperation with America and its allies. 

The JSDF plays a crucial role in deterring aggression by North Korea in the Indo-Pacific. And even towards the United States itself. 

It does this effectively because it has learned to cooperate closely with the US, which has a huge military presence in Japan and on the Korean peninsula. American soldiers are currently conducting a joint military drill with South Korea. That involves more than 13,000 personnel, along with warships, helicopters, and aircraft. 

The goal is to show that any attack launched by Kim Jong Un would be met with an overwhelming response. As the US military puts it, "coalition forces will neutralize key enemy facilities to end a hypothetical conflict." 

Japanese Prime Minister Kishida is traveling to Seoul on September 6 for a meeting with President Yoon Suk-yeol. The two leaders will discuss plans to upgrade military cooperation. They both recognize that joint deterrence is an essential response to the mounting dangers from the North.

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Author: Duncan Bartlett, Diplomatic Correspondent
Mr Bartlett is the Diplomatic Correspondent for JAPAN Forward and a Research Associate at the SOAS China Institute. Read his other articles and essays.