Chief advisor to the interim Bangladesh government, Mohammad Yunus. (©AP via Kyodo)
Recent developments in Bangladesh point to a deteriorating security situation in that country, especially in the wake of the killing of the prominent Bangladeshi student activist, Sharif Osman Hadi, and the subsequent violence in its aftermath. It is worth noting that elections are slated to be held in Bangladesh in February.
In light of these developments, how can the recent violence impact countries like India and Japan?
For India, Bangladesh is a next-door neighbor that shares an approximately 4096.7 Km border. Meanwhile, Japan has made substantial investments in the country. All these investments seem compromised at the moment as a wave of violence tears the country apart in different directions.
Bangladesh is geographically very close to India's Northeast. New Delhi, too, has invested a huge amount of time, energy, and resources in the development of the region. However, for successful development, stability, and peace in the neighborhood are absolutely essential. India had a crucial ally in the former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. However, after her departure, New Delhi has lost this critical support.
Bangladesh has also since become a hotbed of Islamic radicalism.
The Long-term Prognosis
In the long term, things do not portend well if Bangladesh does not change course soon. The kind of radicalism that is being seen in Bangladesh is difficult to ignore. In the long term, it will turn out to be very detrimental for the entire region. Additionally, both India and Bangladesh are members of initiatives like the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, known as BIMSTEC. These will also lose traction if the situation in Bangladesh goes out of hand.
China's Hand
China may also have a hand in fomenting the recent tensions in Bangladesh, given that the Bangladesh Interim Government's Chief Advisor, Muhammad Yunus, made China the destination for his first foreign visit.
Chinese influence in Bangladesh has increased since the change of guard in August 2024. Beijing has been working to increase its influence in Bangladesh since then, which looks ominous for both India and Japan in the long term.
Japan-Bangladesh Relations
Japan has had a long and cordial relationship with Bangladesh. It recognized the People's Republic of Bangladesh as long ago as February 1972, soon after its independence. In September 2023, the Japan International Cooperation Agency, JICA, signed a loan agreement with the Government of Bangladesh. It agreed to provide an Official Development Assistance loan of up to ¥217.6 billion JPY (about $1.5 billion USD) for the Matarbari Ultra Super Critical Coal-Fired Power Project. Japan is also investing in a big way in India's Northeast. In the long term, these infrastructure projects could be linked.
Japan will also have to be careful so that it does not lose its level of influence in Bangladesh. At the same time, it must be noted that in the past, Japanese nationals have borne the brunt of attacks, such as at the Holy Artisan café in Dhaka. Also, in a terror attack in July 2016, at a restaurant popular with foreigners in Dhaka's diplomatic area, nine Italians, seven Japanese, an American, and an Indian were killed.
India's Influence
India has some huge levers of influence in Bangladesh, as the Indian private player, Adani, supplies a huge share of Bangladesh's total power requirements. Earlier, power supplies had been cut due to unpaid fees. However, now they have been restored.
New Delhi has also come to the aid of Bangladesh whenever natural calamities have struck in the past. During the COVID disaster, India supplied vaccines to Bangladesh. In fact, India played a very important role in the formation of Bangladesh, right from the birth of the country in 1971. Dhaka must also realize that it needs a peaceful environment to rebuild the country and its battered economy.
Recently, the former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia passed away. Thereafter, Indian Foreign Minister Dr S Jaishankar visited Bangladesh to pay the final respects on behalf of the Indian Government.
India's Border Defense
New Delhi has increased its military presence in the region, in keeping with the threats from Bangladesh. What is more worrying is that these developments present a security threat to India's Northeastern region. Northeast India is connected to the rest of the country by a narrow 22 Km, the so-called Chicken-Neck corridor.
In the past, the Chinese have also pushed into the northern part of the corridor, near Doklam in Bhutan. That led to a tense standoff between the two countries. In addition, in the last few months, Bangladesh seems to be coming closer to Pakistan, the country from which it declared its independence. This certainly is something to worry New Delhi.
What Are the Options for India and Japan?
Recently, Toshimitsu Motegi, Japan's Minister for Foreign Affairs, held a telephone conversation with Sheikh Bashir Uddin, the Interim Government of Bangladesh's Adviser for Commerce, Textiles, and Jute, as well as Civil Aviation and Tourism. They confirmed that Japan and Bangladesh had, in principle, reached an Economic Partnership Agreement. Furthermore, lots of Bangladeshi nationals are working in Japan.
Bangladesh is important for Japan due to its investments and manufacturing expectations. Meanwhile, the situation in Myanmar, the destination for significant Japanese investments in the past, has deteriorated and shows no signs of improving.
For the moment, there are very few options for India and Japan. One option, however, is to just wait and watch, and not take any sudden measures that could damage their long-term interests. Once the situation stabilizes, they can return with other measures, keeping in mind their long-term interests.
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- India, Japan, and the BIMSTEC Countries: What Lies at Stake?
- China is Doing its Best to Capture the Moment in Bangladesh
Author: Dr Rupakjyoti Borah
Dr Rupakjyoti Borah is a Senior Research Fellow with the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies, Tokyo. The views expressed here are personal.
