Earthquakes in Tibet: A Man-made Disaster, Not Natural Calamities

A recent earthquake has suddenly brought Tibet back to the media's attention after a long hiatus of Chinese shutdown and information blockade. The quake claimed many lives, although official reports say 126 only. However, the real figure is estimated much higher. The disaster displaced around 45,000 people with many still missing. 

This earthquake is a clear message to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership and to the international community about what is happening in Tibet. The Tibetan plateau has witnessed frequent earthquakes and landslides in the past few years. While the authorities attribute these earthquakes as natural disasters due to the friction of the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates, many see them as man-made disasters prompted by rampant damming and mining activities on the Tibetan plateau. 

This paper will examine and explore why the Tibetan plateau is experiencing such natural disasters, what is the possible cause, and the remedy. 

What Happened? 

On the morning of January 7, a massive earthquake of magnitude 7.1 followed by a series of aftershocks struck southwestern Tibet. Its epicenter was in Dingri County, Shigatse prefecture, some 270 km from the Tibetan capital Lhasa. 

The earthquakes claimed many lives and left the region and areas around it devastated. Tremors were felt in Nepal, India, and Bhutan, such was the intensity. While the United States Geological Survey measured the earthquake as 7.1 on the Ritcher scale, the China Earthquake Networks Center records it as 6.8. The earthquake is said to be among the worst tremors to hit the Himalayan region in 100 years.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun was asked about help from Nepal, India, and others. In response, he simply said, "Currently China's search, rescue, and medical care support is well guaranteed. We appreciate the care and support from the international community," thus directly avoiding the question.

His Holiness the Dalai Lama prayed for the people affected. Also, the Central Tibetan Administration's leadership requested China's cooperation in the efficient execution of relief work. However, Chinese spokesperson Guo Jiakun, in a typical Chinese wolf warrior diplomacy, condemned the Dalai Lama and the Central Tibetan Administration as separatists. 

Global Times' Stunning 'Spin'

A Global Times' editorial comment came more fiercely: "The Western human rights lens that some have tried to impose on Xizang will inevitably be torn apart by the facts and ultimately collapse completely." It is a totally irrelevant and out-of-context comment that betrays the CCP's guilt.

The editorial further boasts: 

"Just 10 minutes after the earthquake, rescue helicopters were already in the sky. Within less than half an hour, the team had begun to clear debris. Within less than a day, local networks, roads, and power supplies were restored, and most affected residents were sheltered in warm tents or prefab houses, with hot three meals a day." 

This is very commendable and professional. But if what they say is true, why China is not allowing neighboring Tibetans and international media and volunteers to join and witness the facts? 

The reality of the situation is that the CCP has shut down Internet connections and arrested more than 21 netizens for sharing information. It has further blocked individuals and organizations from entering the affected areas. Residents are threatened not to send pictures and information to the outside world.

Chinese Focus on Infrastructure

China's first reaction to the earthquake was, "Tibet earthquake caused no damage to dams [or] reservoirs." According to the South China Morning Post, following the earthquake, China's Ministry of Water Resources stated that inspections found no impact on dams or reservoirs in the region. 

This succinctly betrays the CCP's fear and guilt. They are more concerned about the dams than the people's lives. Nevertheless, the dams are sure to be affected. It is for this reason that China did not allow neighboring Tibetans and international volunteers in Tibet. 

A week after the earthquake on January 16, China confessed to damage at five of the 14 hydropower dams it had inspected. It had also evacuated about 1,500 people from six villages downstream to higher ground. But this could be the tip of the iceberg.

Why Earthquakes in the Himalayan Region?

Nepal and Tibet are said to be on the active seismic zones and fault lines of the Indian and Eurasian plates. The Indian tectonic plate is slowly moving northward and pushing the Eurasian plate at a rate of 5 cm a year. This is creating strong pressure on the earth beneath, resulting in earthquakes in the region. Many attribute the earthquakes in the regions to this friction of the Indian and Eurasian plates. This puts the Himalayan region in a very precarious and earthquake-prone zone. 

While the above explanation may be one of the major causes of earthquakes, it is not the sole source of the tremors. Continued and frequent earthquakes in the last few years tell another story. In 2008 earthquake of magnitude 7.9 quake in the Ngaba region of Eastern Tibet killed almost 12,000 people. A magnitude 7.0 earthquake hit Kyegudo (Yushu) in eastern Tibet in 2010. More than 3000 died and many more were rendered homeless and displaced. Nepal was the epicenter of a magnitude 7.8 quake in 2015 that claimed more than 9000 lives and destroyed more than a half million homes. In May 2021, an earthquake of magnitude 7.3 shook southern Qinghai. 

Reports say that according to China's CCTV, "There have been 29 earthquakes of magnitude three or above in the past five years within 200 km of the Shigatse quake epicenter." It also reported that since 1950, 21 earthquakes of 6 or above magnitude occurred in the Lhasa block with the 2017 Mainling earthquake of magnitude 6.9 as the largest.

Why Tibet?

Why are so many earthquakes in Tibet all of a sudden? Tibetans have never experienced earthquakes so frequently in the past. My parents never said anything about experiencing them, and even the ancient Tibetan folklore and folktales rarely mention earthquakes. Why have the Indian and Eurasian plates started colliding frequently in these past few years? This is an important question that we all must contemplate.

While the Indian and Eurasian plates may play a role, we cannot dismiss other causes as factors. Many, including scientists, attribute their frequency to human factors such as China's damming of the Tibetan rivers, deforestation, excessive mining, and militarization of the Tibetan plateau. 

China has occupied Tibet since 1950. Since then, it has always looked at Tibet as a colony to be exploited and a military base to further its hegemony in Southeast Asian countries. Disruptions from these activities cause earthquakes, making these man-made disasters and the CCP regime is responsible for them.

Now the Tibetan plateau, ravaged and over-exploited by the CCP regime, has burst out to protest and to ring the alarm bell about the lurking cataclysmic disaster in the region and the deadly and devastating repercussions for the neighboring states. 

Rivers that Flow to Billions Throughout Asia

Former World Bank Vice Chairman Dr Ismail Serageldin has rightly said that the next world war will be over water. If what China is doing in Tibet is any indication, this is true and the danger is very imminent. 

Tibet is known as the Water Tower of Asia. Some ten of the largest rivers of Asia and their tributaries feeding more than 1.8 billion people originate from the Tibetan plateau. Tibet also hosts the largest number of glaciers (46,000) and permafrost, next to the North and South poles. Often it is referred to as the Third Pole and the roof of the world. 

China wants to control these rivers through cascades of behemoth dams. If it does so, it will gain hegemonic sway over the riparian states. 

Four major rivers of Tibet: Senge Khabab, Langchen Khabab, Maja Khabab, and Tachog Khabab are the Indus, Sutlej, Ganges, and Brahmaputra rivers of India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. The Indus River, which provides water to 268 million people in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, is already drying up because of Chinese dams upstream. 

India's Brahmaputra River which originates in western Tibet as Tachog Khabab, flows 1625 km along the southeast Indo-Tibet border. It is joined by the Kyichu River and others and flows further east as Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra). Then, at Metok County, it takes a sharp U-turn and descends toward India into Arunachal Pradesh and on to Bangladesh. 

Covering 2,900 km from its source in Tibet to the Bay of Bengal, the Brahmaputra feeds and provides fresh water to more than 114 million people in Tibet, India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. It accounts for 30% of India's freshwater resources. (ICIMOD 20/03/2024). 

Damming the Brahmaputra and Other Rivers

China has built numerous dams to control the water flow of these rivers. These are not run-of-the-river dam projects, as China wants the international community to believe. The CCP harbors a more sinister political and hegemonic agenda behind these dams than simply satisfying its hunger for hydropower. 

It has dammed the Indus and Sutlej rivers. Not satisfied with the six major dams of Zangmu, Yamdrok, Pangduo, Zhikong, Jiacha, and Lalho on the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra River), China is going ahead with its $137 billion mega-dam project at Metok region. This is the crucial point where the Tibetan river takes a sharp U-turn to flow into India and Bangladesh. The project cost is reported to surpass all other infrastructure projects globally, including China's Three Gorges Dam, currently considered the world's largest. 

China says dam construction is ongoing in tandem with its quest for clean energy for the Tibetan plateau. But Fan Xiao, a Chinese geologist, says, "The region surrounding the Yarlung River has too few people and too small an economy to require all that electricity."

Zangmu Dam alone produces 2.5 billion kW of electricity annually. Combining it with hydroelectricity from other dams on the Yarlung Tsangpo, the total is much more. 

Then why does China need this Metok dam with 300 billion kW capacity at a great risk of geological disaster? Fan Xiao, a Chinese geologist, warned against Beijing's plan to construct the controversial mega-dam. In the South China Morning Post, he cites it as a geologically unstable biodiversity hotspot that could cause irreparable environmental damage. (Business Standard Jan 7, 2025).

Weaponizing the Mekong

Tibet's rivers, Drichu and Machu, are the sources of the Yangtse and Huangho Yellow Rivers, the cradle of Chinese civilization. Tibet's Gyalmo Nyulchu River flows to China, Myanmar, and Thailand as Nujiang, Thalween, and Salween. Zachu River of Tibet is the source of the famous Mekong River which flows to China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam, providing fresh water and sources of livelihood for the people throughout the region. 

On the Mekong River alone, China has built 11 huge dams, including the massive Three Gorge Dam. Several more are still being planned. 5000 kilometer Mekong River comes into the news sometimes in desperate attempts to warn the inhabitants that it is drying and dying. The livelihood of more than 70 million people in the riparian states is at stake with the damming of the Mekong River by China. Furthermore, dams on the upstream Mekong were built without any consultation or information sharing with the downstream countries. 

With total control over the rivers in Tibet, China harbors an "open and close tap policy" to gain geopolitical leverage over the countries downstream. The riparian states are brought to kowtow to Chinese dictates through intimidation and threats to open or close the dams, weaponizing water to cause floods or droughts. This leaves the government and people in these regions at the mercy of the CCP's dictates and manipulation. 

Environmental and Human Damage

China's dam-building frenzy on the Tibetan plateau is said to satisfy the mainland's water scarcity and hunger for hydropower. This is clear from Xi Jinping's policy to turn Tibet into a base for the "West-East Electricity Transmission Project." However, it leaves Tibet, China, and other neighboring states at perpetual great risk of earthquakes, flooding, and massive environmental damage. 

Another main and important reason for this dam-building frenzy is to achieve geopolitical leverage over downstream nations. This is dangerous. It will adversely affect the security of all the Southeast Asian countries. The international community must stop China from weaponizing the dams.

There is also a third reason: forcible relocation. These dam construction and mining projects enable the communist regime to relocate the Tibetans forcefully from their traditional homes and settlements under the pretext of development and better housing. China has forcefully relocated many Tibetans to exploit their water and mineral resources. This practice leaves those moved in a precarious position and dependent on meager government subsidies. 

More than 930,000 Tibetans have been coerced into moving since 2000, Human Rights Watch says.

Cost of Huge Power Output

Dechen Palmo, a research fellow at the Tibet Policy Institute, writes, "Over the last seven decades, the People's Republic of China has constructed more than 87,000 dams. Collectively they generate 325.26 gW of power, more than the capacities of Brazil, the United States, and Canada combined. On the other hand, these projects have led to the displacement of over 23 million people."

In February 2024, despite appeals and protests from Tibetans and the international community, China went ahead with the Kamtok Dam in Derge, Kham region in Sichuan. According to Tibet Watch, the dam was expected to relocate 12 villages from both sides of the river affecting some 4287 people. 

We still don't know what happened to the 1000 people who were arrested at the time.

Some scientists have blamed large dams for triggering earlier earthquakes. Most notoriously, the role of the Zipingu dam in the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 is raised in question.

According to the International Rivers advisory note in 2010, "Yushu County, on the upper reaches of the Yangtse River, is a hotbed of planned dam building in China. As we know from more than 100 documented cases around the world, high dams can trigger earthquakes. There is strong evidence linking the devastating Sichuan earthquake of May 2008 to the Zipingpu Dam." 

A Ticking Time Bomb

Brahma Chellaney, a geo-strategist, writes, "The new dam project will give China control over cross-border river flows, thus allowing it to leverage its territorial claim to India's sprawling, Tibet-bordering Arunachal Pradesh state, which is almost three times the area of Taiwan." 

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has reported that "China is quietly and irreversibly working to legitimize its control over border regions, including territories disputed with India." China has been relocating and populating the border regions along India, Nepal, and Bhutan to gain a better negotiating position while contesting territorial disputes.

The Pentagon's 2021 annual report revealed that China has built housing complexes within the disputed area with India. These are close to the mega-dam project near the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. This is the same salami-slicing tactic used by China to encroach upon and claim territories by occupation in the Southeast China Sea. It has people in the Indo-Pacific region, including Japan and the Philippines, on high alert.

According to some reports, between 1954 and 2003, 3484 of the country's 85,300 dams collapsed. China's dam critic Fan Xiao warns that the country's poorly built and dangerous reservoirs are time bombs waiting to be exposed in the event of a severe flood or other unexpected occurrence. 

According to a recently updated report, "A case in point is the 2001 disaster after an artificial dam in Tibet gave away to kill 26 people and damaged property worth Rs 140 Indian crore (over 16 million USD) along river Siang in Arunachal Pradesh."

Conclusion

From the above warnings, China's rampant dam-building and mining activities are not just a Tibetan problem. They are a ticking time bomb for India, Nepal, Bhutan, and the Mekong countries. These riparian states must join the Tibetans in garnering international support to stop China from damming the Tibetan rivers and ensure the free passage of fresh water. 

This Chinese hegemonic expansionist policy must not succeed. Furthermore, the CCP regime must be warned and made accountable for the mega-disaster in the making before it's too late. 

What Riparian Nations Can Do Now

The riparian nations under threat should make it a point to join the International water-sharing law and call on China too to sign the treaty. The UN Watercourses Convention, the World Bank international rivers and lakes initiative, and the UN Law of International Water Resources should govern all those affected. China should be stopped from exploiting the Tibetan water and land resources and weaponizing Tibetan rivers to gain geo-political hegemony over the neighboring countries. 

RELATED:

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• INTERVIEW | Kamtok Dam in Tibet: Environmental and Cultural Crisis Exposed
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Author: Dr Tsewang Gyalpo Arya

Dr Tsewang Gyalpo Arya is the Representative of the Liaison Office of HH the Dalai Lama for Japan and East Asia. He is the former Secretary of the Department of Information and International Relations (DIIR) and the Former Director of the Tibet Policy Institute of the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) in Dharamsala, India. His books include "Harnessing the Dragon's Fume" and "The Ancient Tibetan Civilization".