EDITORIAL | China Nuclear Buildup Needs Tougher Response from the US

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According to the recently released annual report by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) on Military and Security Developments Related to the People's Republic of China (PRC), Beijing now has more than 600 operational nuclear warheads. That represents an increase of around 100 warheads in just one year.

DoD's 2020 report put the size of China's nuclear stockpile at just under 200, projecting it would double by 2030. This shows that the pace of expansion of the PRC's nuclear capabilities is substantially exceeding previous forecasts. Moreover, China is reportedly considering shifting from its long-held nuclear no-first-use stance to a policy of not ruling out first-use.

A Concerning Rise in Nuclear Threats

Russia continues to make nuclear threats in Ukraine. Meanwhile, North Korea, which is actively supporting Russia, is also accelerating its nuclear missile development. The incoming Donald Trump administration should take into account the reality that nuclear-armed autocratic nations are strengthening their cooperation. 

Trump and his national security team must quickly examine and strengthen the reliability of "extended deterrence." In this case, we mean the circumstances where the United States uses its nuclear forces to defend Japan and other allies.

China will have over 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, the latest DoD report projects. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) remains secretive about its nuclear forces, their current status, and its own goals. However, the pace of expansion can be expected to accelerate further. 

We should also take heed of the report's warning that not only the quantity but also the quality of nuclear warheads has been improved. China has further been diversifying its delivery methods of every type from precision strike missiles to intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs. Meanwhile, it has also strengthened the offensive capabilities of its strategic nuclear submarines and strategic bombers. 

Commitment to 'No First Use'

Historically, the PRC has adhered to a "no first use" policy, under which it pledged it would not use nuclear weapons unless it comes under nuclear attack. However, the report notes that the Xi Jinping administration is now considering adopting a "first use" approach. That would allow Chinese leaders the option to be the first to use nuclear weapons in the course of a conflict.

If true, that would represent a major strategic shift with an invasion of Taiwan in mind. 

Specifically, in this regard the report mentions the following scenario: "Beijing probably would consider nuclear first use if a conventional military defeat in Taiwan gravely threatened CCP regime survival" (p 116).

This suggests that if a conflict with Taiwan were going badly due to intervention by the US military, there is a risk that the People's Liberation Army would attack US military bases in the region with low-yield nuclear weapons. Japan could also be targeted. 

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the United States possessed 5,044 nuclear warheads as of January 2024. By the same date, Russia had 5,580. The US now must simultaneously deal with Russia's nuclear capabilities and China's dramatic qualitative improvements.

The incoming Trump administration will seek to install Cabinet members and senior officials who are considered tough on China. However, the direction of its nuclear strategy is unclear. 

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba should discuss China's nuclear buildup during his expected meeting with Trump in January 2025. 

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Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun

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