EDITORIAL | Japan's Energy Security Held Hostage by Nuclear Regulators

Energy security is increasingly important amid rising international tensions and global warming. Against this background, the 7th Strategic Energy Plan was unveiled at the end of 2024. It sets out the power source mix for fiscal 2040.

A noteworthy feature of the new plan's proposed energy mix is the appropriate role of nuclear power generation. The new plan deletes the phrase "reduce dependence on nuclear power as much as possible." That phrase had been included in all versions of the plan since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident 14 years ago. Replacing it now is the clarion call to "make maximum use of nuclear power."

In addition, a new system has been added that allows electric power companies that own multiple nuclear power plants to build a new nuclear power station on an existing site if they are decommissioning another one. This measure should facilitate the rapid introduction of next-generation reactors with revolutionary designs.

Bringing Boiling Water Reactors Back Online

Hoping to achieve both a stable electrical supply and decarbonization, the Cabinet is expected to approve the 7th Strategic Energy Plan within the fiscal year. Last autumn, around the same time as this policy shift, boiling water reactor (BWR) type nuclear power plants began restarting. First, Unit 2 at Tohoku Electric Power's Onagawa Nuclear Power Plant in Miyagi Prefecture restarted in October. Unit 2 at Chugoku Electric Power's Shimane Nuclear Power Plant in Shimane Prefecture restarted in December 2024.

The 12 reactors that had been restarted up to that time were all pressurized water reactors (PWRs). There are many BWRs of the same model as the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in eastern Japan. However, delays in the mandatory safety inspections of these sites resulted in the restart of many western Japan reactors but few in eastern Japan.

Overcoming this regional disparity must wait for the restart of Unit 7 at TEPCO's Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station in Niigata Prefecture. Despite the power plant having passed safety inspections by the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) Niigata Governor Hideyo Hanazumi has yet to grant his approval. The plant has since completed fuel installation and remains on standby status.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his administration should take steps to quickly resolve this situation. Their failure to do so could lead to an electricity supply crisis in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

At present Japan has a total of 33 nuclear power plants. Eighteen are the PWR type and 17 are the BWR type. However, as of January 2024, only 14 have been restarted. The process is clearly way behind schedule.

*Tokyo Electric Power Company's Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 6 (right) and Unit 7. Niigata Prefecture, April 2021. (©Kyodo)*

Only Nuclear Power Meets Japan's Energy Needs

Some people argue that Japan can satisfy its electricity needs even without nuclear power. They think any shortfall can be supplemented by relying on thermal power generation using imported natural gas. However, in the end, such a shortsighted strategy would be a huge outflow of national wealth. It could also trigger a decline in Japan's industrial competitiveness and cause economic stagnation precipitated by rising electricity prices. The Japanese people, the Ishiba administration, and the opposition parties must all face up to this stark reality.

Global warming also merits close attention. It is inextricably linked to the energy picture. The Paris Agreement of 2015 enumerates an international set of rules for preventing global warming. Each member state is required to submit updated greenhouse gas reduction targets every five years. The next deadline in February 2025 is fast approaching.

Japan's previous target was a 46% reduction by FY2030. Therefore, the target for FY2035 is expected to be an even higher reduction of around 60%.

To achieve such an ambitious target, the government must promote the restart of nuclear power stations. Furthermore, it must take immediate action to build new ones. Japan once boasted world-leading nuclear power technology. However, the 13-year-long shutdown has cast a long shadow over Japan's nuclear power construction capabilities, including the supply chain.

The Paris Agreement

The 7th Strategic Energy Plan expresses high hopes for solar and wind power generation. It envisions these sources providing power equal to or even greater than nuclear power. Nonetheless, long-term continuous operation is a prerequisite for core power sources.

Moreover, renewable energy is inherently unstable and solar panels are seriously damaging forest ecosystems. The only thing that can meet this challenge is nuclear power.

Meanwhile, it will also be necessary to carefully assess the impact of the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the dynamics of global decarbonization negotiations. This has been threatened following the inauguration of the Trump administration on January 20.

AI-related Energy Demand

Other factors in growing electrical demand are the increasing adoption of generative AI (artificial intelligence) and the rapid growth of the semiconductor industry, including data centers that support it. These require high-quality high-volume electricity not subject to frequent disruptions

Furthermore, the establishment of a viable nuclear fuel cycle is urgently needed for the sustainable use of nuclear energy. Related to this, Japan Nuclear Fuel Limited's reprocessing plant must be completed. Furthermore, the Nuclear Waste Management Organization of Japan must find a geologically suitable disposal site for high-level radioactive waste. We hope to see progress in both respects in 2025.

Currently, the NRA holds the key to Japan's energy recovery. Nuclear energy is a key element in the response to global warming. NRA has blatantly delayed nuclear power station safety inspections, which should be completed within two years per the Administrative Procedure Act. One example is the Japan Atomic Power Company's Tsuruga No 2 reactor. NRA rejected its restart based on the unscientific logic that "the possibility [of an active earthquake fault in the area] cannot be completely ruled out."

If the NRA's self-righteousness is allowed to continue, the achievement of the 7th Strategic Energy Plan's goals will move ever further away.

This year 2025 will be crucial to getting Japan's national energy strength back on track.

(Read the editorial in Japanese.)

Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun