Two Japan Coast Guard patrol boats (in front) block a Chinese Coast Guard ship (center back) off the coast of Uotsuri Island in the Senkaku Islands, on the morning of April 27. In Ishigaki City, Okinawa Prefecture (©Sankei by Naoki Otake)
Plans are underway to evacuate all residents of the Sakishima Islands in Okinawa Prefecture in the event of a Taiwan emergency or a military invasion of the Senkaku Islands. The Sakishima Islands are a general designation for the numerous islands in the Miyako and Yaeyama island groups.
Within the Cabinet Secretariat, a study group has been established on "noncombatant evacuation operations" (NEO) for the islands. It is tasked to draw up a preliminary plan for the evacuations of residents by the end of FY2024.
At the tail end of the Pacific War, the land battle for Okinawa claimed the lives of many civilians. So, naturally, every possible diplomatic means must be employed to avoid such an emergency. The fact, however, is that China adamantly refuses to change its hardline stance. That being so, we need to prepare for whatever emergency might arise.
Protecting Civilian Lives
Both national and local governments are responsible for protecting the nation's citizens against such an eventuality. A NEO is a necessary activity for that purpose.
In the event an armed attack by a foreign country appears imminent, the government has decided it will evacuate all residents (approximately 110,000 people) as well as an estimated 10,000 tourists from five municipalities in the Sakishima Islands. These are Japanese islands near Taiwan including Ishigaki, Miyakojima, and Yonaguni. Residents and others would be transported to areas outside of Okinawa Prefecture, including Kyushu and Yamaguchi Prefecture on Honshu.
Civilian aircraft and ships will be used to transport the civilians, which Okinawa Prefecture estimates would take at least six days to complete. Airports and other infrastructure should be prepared ahead of time.
Bad weather is also a concern. Evacuations might have to be suspended for several days if there are serious storms. Therefore, the government also needs to prepare underground shelters to serve as evacuation facilities and air raid shelters. These should be strong enough to accommodate residents staying for up to two weeks.
Preparing to Receive Evacuees
Local governments in the seven Kyushu prefectures and Yamaguchi Prefecture would be accepting the Sakishima Islands evacuees. These prefectures, too, will need to prepare accommodations, stockpile food, improve medical systems, and prepare livelihood support measures in case the evacuation becomes prolonged.
We also need to prepare shelters on the main island of Okinawa and for possible NEOs from Taiwan. If a Taiwan contingency appears imminent, numerous Japanese and other foreigners living in Taiwan are likely to be evacuated to Japan. Tourists caught there would be included as well. There is also a strong likelihood that discreet NEO from both the Sakishima Islands and Taiwan could be implemented simultaneously.
Okinawa's Responsibility
One concern, however, is that the prefecture of Okinawa has been dragging its feet regarding evacuation preparations. Governor Denny Tamaki and leftist forces who support him have opposed evacuation plans and other measures. Incredibly, they claim that planning might actually incite an armed crisis.
This is a twisted way of thinking that disregards the lives of the residents of Okinawa.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine provides a recent example. Large numbers of residents of the eastern part of Ukraine were evacuated. That too was an NEO and some Ukrainian evacuees were even given refuge in Japan. Are they and the Ukrainian authorities who had them flee the parties who incited the conflict? Of course, it would be utter nonsense to claim so.
To protect the lives of residents of Okinawa, Governor Tamaki and the prefectural government should actively cooperate with the national government to prepare while there is still time.
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(Read the editorial in Japanese.)
Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun
