EDITORIAL | The Last Thing Trump Needs is Trade Rifts with Allies

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The incoming second Donald Trump administration's lineup of Cabinet members and senior officials in foreign policy, security, economics, and trade has been finalized.

They suggest that Donald Trump aims to achieve "peace through strength." That is the same principle that led former President Ronald Reagan to victory in the Cold War. Doing so will require strong military forces to serve as a deterrent and solidarity among the world's democracies. However, some of Mr Trump's choices raise concerns about policy priorities.

Trump started by naming Senator Marco Rubio as his choice for Secretary of State. He also selected Congressman Michael Waltz as his National Security Advisor. These were two solid choices of capable individuals for key foreign and security policy positions. Both are hardliners on China and recognize the importance of alliance relations.

Defense of America, Coordination with Friends and Allies

However, Peter Hegseth is Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense. At the same time, he is facing a sexual assault allegation that puts his Senate confirmation in jeopardy. Although he served in Iraq and Afghanistan, Hegseth has never held a senior position in the government or military. It appears Mr Trump expects Hegseth to restructure the Department of Defense and correct the Biden administration's prioritization of racial and gender diversity.

*Pete Hegseth at the US Capitol in Washington on December 2. (©Getty Images via Kyodo)*

Sustained efforts are undoubtedly needed to make the United States military a strong, meritocratic organization. However, unlike during Trump's first term, the world now is confronted with the danger of a chain reaction of crises in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Any one of these could escalate into an all-out war.

A US secretary of defense must possess a realistic strategic outlook. Moreover, he or she must be able to gain the trust of US military commanders and allied nations alike. Wouldn't someone like James Mattis, Trump's first secretary of defense during his first term, be more suitable?

A Ceasefire in Ukraine

Ukraine will likely become the first test of Trump's diplomacy. The President-elect has already promised to arrange an early ceasefire in that conflict.

His designated special envoy for this purpose is retired Army Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg Jr. Kellogg is known for advising Trump to adopt a peace plan that would adopt the current front line as a ceasefire line. It would also freeze Ukraine's North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership bid.

*US President-elect Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (©AP via Kyodo)*

However, a ceasefire should not be rushed without first providing security guarantees for Ukraine. Otherwise, it could afford Russia an opportunity to resume its invasion. Moreover, it could also invite aggression by authoritarian nations in Japan's immediate neighborhood.

Avoiding a Trade War

As for trade policy, Trump has named Peter Navarro as senior adviser to the president. Navarro led the trade war with China during the first Trump administration. His appointment means he will surely be a key player in setting the administration's trade policy.

Navarro will likely revive a transactional trade policy that prioritizes the practical interests of the United States. Additionally, the incoming administration has threatened to raise tariffs, but not only on China. It has also threatened to impose tariffs on allies and like-minded countries. However, if the administration is to pursue "peace through strength," it cannot afford to repeat developing rifts with its allies.

Japan should be a key link in the global network of like-minded countries led by the United States. Does Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba have what it takes to bring this about?

Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun

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