Election Blow to Japan's Ruling Bloc as Opposition Surges

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner Komeito suffered a significant setback in the July 20 Upper House election. They lost enough seats to fall below the 125-seat majority threshold in the 248-seat chamber. This marks the first time since the LDP's founding in 1955 that the ruling party or coalition has lost majorities in both houses of parliament.

Seat Tally and Political Realignment

Of the 125 contested seats, the LDP secured 39 and Komeito eight, giving the ruling coalition 47 new seats. However, that was insufficient to maintain control. Combined with existing seats, the coalition now holds roughly 122 seats in the Upper House, just shy of a majority [125 seats].

Opposition parties and newcomers capitalized on voter frustration. The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won 22 seats, and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) took 17. The right-leaning Sanseito made a striking leap from one seat to 14, while the newly formed Japan Conservative Party secured two. Nippon Ishin no Kai gained seven, the Japanese Communist Party and Reiwa Shinsengumi each won three, and smaller groups and independents rounded out the results.

Sanseito's rapid rise proved especially damaging to the LDP. Running on a "Japan First" platform, it highlighted issues like restricting foreign land purchases and limiting immigration. These positions appealed to voters disillusioned with the LDP's handling of economic policy, public safety, and cultural issues. Sanseito's calls for consumption tax cuts and tougher foreigner-related regulations struck a chord with conservatives who felt the LDP had lost its way under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

*Sanseito leader Sohei Kamiya pins a flower on a winning candidate to celebrate their projected victory. July 21, Shinjuku Ward, Tokyo (©Sankei by Naoki Aikawa).*

Voter Dissatisfaction with the Ruling Coalition

Economic anxiety drove much of the voter discontent, according to a Sankei Shimbun editorial. Inflation in food and energy prices without corresponding wage growth left many households feeling financially strained, the article stated. The Ishiba administration's relief measures, mainly one-off cash handouts, were viewed as insufficient and politically expedient. Meanwhile, opposition parties promised direct tax cuts, further highlighting the ruling bloc's perceived inaction.

Critics also cited Ishiba's weak communication on economic policy, especially on how consumption tax revenues relate to social security funding. LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama acknowledged the party's failure to explain its approach and said it had "underestimated public frustration over rising costs."

Foreign Policy and Social Conservatism

National security concerns also played a role. Ishiba came under fire for what was perceived as a tepid response to China's provocative actions. These included a close encounter between Chinese and Japanese military aircraft and the arbitrary conviction of a Japanese national in China during the campaign. Ishiba's absence from a recent NATO summit further drew criticism.

On the domestic front, Ishiba's stance on traditional conservative values appeared ambiguous. He offered limited leadership on constitutional revision and remained largely silent on the imperial succession debate. Furthermore, he did not strongly oppose liberal initiatives, such as separate surnames for married couples or the LGBT Understanding Promotion Act. These perceived compromises alienated core LDP supporters, opening the space for newer conservative parties.

Fragmented Opposition

Despite the LDP's losses, no single opposition party emerged as a dominant alternative. The CDP gained seats but benefited more from divided conservative votes than a groundswell of its own support. Smaller parties like the Communist Party and Social Democratic Party continued their long-term decline, facing aging bases and ideological fatigue. The outcome underscores a shift away from the traditional LDP-vs-main opposition dynamic toward a more fragmented political spectrum.

*Akiko Kurabayashi of the Japanese Communist Party bows to supporters after her projected loss. July 20, Kyoto. (©Sankei by Ryota Tsukawaki).*

Ishiba Says He Stands Firm — for Now

Prime Minister Ishiba acknowledged the defeat but vowed to remain in office. He cited the need to avoid a political vacuum amid pressing issues like security and trade talks with Donald Trump's administration. Calling the result a tough but instructive verdict, he said his government would redouble efforts on defense and the economy.

Nevertheless, pressure within the LDP is mounting. Traditionally, a prime minister who fails to meet a self-imposed electoral benchmark is expected to resign. Ishiba already drew criticism in 2024 for remaining in power after a Lower House setback. With two major defeats behind him, calls for his resignation or for a leadership contest are likely to intensify.

Party Secretary-General Moriyama suggested he would consult with Ishiba about his own position, signaling potential Cabinet changes. Meanwhile, opposition leaders, including DPP's Yuichiro Tamaki and CDP's Yoshihiko Noda, rejected any coalition with the Ishiba administration, making a return to majority governance via cross-party alliance unlikely.

Outlook

Without control of the Upper House, the Ishiba government faces serious legislative hurdles and likely political gridlock. Any new policy will require cooperation with independents or opposition blocs, further weakening the administration's authority.

Although the Prime Minister retains legal authority in the absence of a no-confidence vote from the Lower House, the dual loss of both chambers places him in the weakest position of any postwar Japanese leader in decades. Whether he survives politically may depend on the LDP's willingness to rally behind him or replace him.

Author: Daniel Manning