Election Pits Security and Growth Against Tax Politics

With Japan heading into a general election amid rising prices and growing regional uncertainty, party leaders used late-January debates to lay out sharply different visions of the country's future. At an online party leaders' debate hosted by Niconico on January 24 and a Japan National Press Club forum on January 26, candidates moved quickly past slogans. They argued instead over security policy and social spending.

The Cost of Evasion

Speaking early in the January 24 Niconico debate, Sanae Takaichi framed Japan's future around material constraints rather than abstract ideals. "First of all, no matter what happens, Japan must never be unable to feed itself," she said. "Food security, energy security, and disaster preparedness. These are policies that protect lives."

Rather than treating growth and security as competing priorities, Takaichi argued that domestic production capacity and exports were mutually reinforcing. "If we have surplus capacity, we should export aggressively," she added, linking self-sufficiency to international competitiveness rather than retreat.

That emphasis on trade-offs stood in sharp contrast to the opposition's reliance on slogans detached from fiscal arithmetic. Nowhere was that clearer than in the arguments advanced by the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) and the Social Democratic Party. Both claimed Japan could simultaneously abolish the consumption tax, halve social insurance premiums, eliminate university tuition nationwide, and abandon nuclear power.

Sanae Takaichi, president of the Liberal Democratic Party, speaking at a party leaders' debate, January 26, Tokyo.
(©Sankei by Masahiro Sakai)

"We will make university tuition and entrance fees free across the country. It only costs ¥3 trillion JPY ($20 billion USD)," JCP leader Tomoko Tamura insisted. She then added, "We will also make the consumption tax zero and cut social insurance premiums in half." No funding mechanism beyond vague redistribution was offered, even as defense spending and demographic pressures were invoked as moral rather than budgetary questions.

Containing the Burden on the Working Generation

Nippon Ishin no Kai took the opposite approach. Representing the party at the Japan National Press Club debate on January 26, co-leader Fumitake Fujita focused on cost containment rather than benefit inflation. "Medical spending is already ¥47 trillion (approximately ￥320 billion). In 15 years, it will reach ￥80 trillion (roughly $540 billion)," he warned. "If we don't reform this now, the burden on the working generation will continue to rise."

Rather than proposing new universal entitlements, Ishin pointed to concrete measures already implemented, including hospital bed reductions, efficiency reforms, and new over-the-counter drug systems. "We have already produced over ¥1 trillion ($6.7 billion) in fiscal effects in just the past few months," he said, framing reform as execution rather than aspiration.

The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) adopted a similar posture. Party leader Yuichiro Tamaki described the DPP as "a party that delivers policy." He emphasized rent subsidies, student loan tax deductions, and targeted relief for younger workers. "There is support for homeowners through mortgage tax breaks, but nothing for renters," Tamaki noted. "That's unreasonable."

Sovereignty and Strategic Reality

Sanseito focused its interventions on energy and security as matters of sovereignty rather than ideology. Party president Souhei Kamiya rejected the premise, advanced by the JCP and the Social Democratic Party, that Japan could preserve peace by disengaging from power politics or reducing its defensive capacity. "You cannot talk about peace while ignoring power," he said, directly challenging arguments that higher defense spending itself creates instability.

Kamiya also criticized what he described as a lack of seriousness in debates over energy security, repeatedly noting that "Japan is a country without resources." He dismissed opposition arguments as "nice-sounding words," warning against "arguments detached from reality" that avoid responsibility while appealing to voters. For Kamiya, energy policy and defense were inseparable from what he called "responsible politics": politics that acknowledge material constraints rather than denying them.

The most striking example of detachment came from the left's treatment of defense and the Japan-United States alliance. Social Democratic Party leader Mizuho Fukushima warned that raising defense spending to 2% of GDP would "destroy people's lives," arguing that "medical care, education, and daily life are being crushed because of rising military budgets."

She went further, accusing Takaichi personally of manufacturing security crises: "The tense security environment isn't increasing naturally, it's being created by the government, by Ms Takaichi herself."

What was missing from this critique was any acknowledgment of regional realities or alliance obligations. Fukushima also failed to address China's aggressive words and actions towards Japan. While Fukushima spoke of American "demands" driving Japanese policy, she offered no alternative security architecture beyond opposition itself.

The JCP took a similar line, portraying defense spending as inherently destabilizing while refusing to engage with scenarios involving Taiwan, the East China Sea, or North Korea beyond general appeals to peace.

Ambiguity and Political Evasion

Constitutional Democratic Party leader Yoshiko Noda's newly formed Centrist Reform Alliance fared little better. During the Japan National Press Club debate, he was pressed repeatedly on the basic structure of his party. "You have two leaders, two secretaries-general, two policy chiefs," one journalist noted. "Isn't that irresponsible?" Noda defended the arrangement as a temporary "shared responsibility" model, likening it to "using low gear at the start." Yet when asked who would actually serve as prime minister in the event of a power transition, he offered no answer. "We will consider that after the election," he said.

*Yoshihiko Noda, co-leader of the Centrist Reform Alliance, at the Japan National Press Club, Tokyo, January 26. (©Sankei by Masahiro Sakai)*

That hesitation reinforced a broader impression of evasion. On energy policy, Noda attempted to straddle pro- and anti-nuclear factions, insisting that "our basic policy has not changed" while conceding that messaging differed depending on context. On security, he affirmed the US alliance in principle, but avoided clear positions on issues such as the relocation of US forces in Okinawa, where his coalition partners remain openly opposed.