If the conflict with Iran drags on, US involvement in Northeast Asia could weaken. China, North Korea, and Russia could take provocative actions in the region.
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People watch smoke rising into the air following an explosion in Tehran, Iran, on February 28. (©AP via Kyodo News)

The United States and Israel have jointly attacked Iran. Reports say that the area around the offices of that country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was among the targets. Hours later, Iranian officials confirmed his death from the attack.

Iran has also launched ballistic missiles towards Israel and other neighbors in retaliation. Currently, the Olympic Truce period continues, as stated by a United Nations General Assembly resolution. Both sides should end the exchange of attacks as soon as possible. To that end, Iran must commit to abandoning its nuclear weapons program. 

In a video posted on social media, US President Donald Trump explained the reasons for the attack. He said, Iranian leaders "had rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions." Trump also called on the Iranian people to overthrow the current regime.

A satellite image reveals extensive bomb damage to a facility related to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. February 28. (PLEIADES NEO (C) AIRBUS DS 2026, provided by Reuters/Kyodo)

Why Negotiations Failed

During its recent negotiations with Iran, the US demanded that Tehran abandon its efforts at uranium enrichment. That's because the resulting material could be used in the production of nuclear weapons. 

Meanwhile, Iran maintained that it had the right to engage in nuclear energy development for peaceful purposes. It cited the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as authority for its claim.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (©Supreme Leader's Office, Reuters)

Nonetheless, it is clear that Iran was intent on developing nuclear weapons. The very fact that the regime built a uranium enrichment facility 80 to 90 meters underground is evidence that it has been scheming to manufacture nuclear weapons.

Moreover, Iran has also refused to allow inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The international community can no longer tolerate such brazen behavior. 

In addition, recently in Tehran, a hardline stance has surfaced urging it to withdraw from the NPT. Such a withdrawal would create a serious threat of nuclear proliferation. For the US administration it would have rekindled the nightmare of North Korea's withdrawal from the NPT in 2003.

Funding Terrorism, Killing Dissent

Iran under the Khamenei regime has been wracked by large-scale anti-government demonstrations since the end of 2025. Many Iranians died in the harsh official crackdown that followed. The US and Israeli attacks aim for nothing less than regime change.

Ayatollah Khamenei had regarded Israel as his sworn enemy. Moreover, under his regime, Iran had actively supported terrorist groups throughout the Middle East. Now is not the time for complacency. There is a risk that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and pro-Iran forces outside Iran could also launch violent attacks on US military bases in the Middle East.

An oil tanker passes through the Strait of Hormuz in December 2018. (©Reuters)

There is also great concern that the Strait of Hormuz could be blocked. It is a major artery for global crude oil transport. Also, oil tankers belonging to Western nations might be targeted. Meanwhile, Japan remains reliant on the Middle East for the bulk of its crude oil imports.

In addition, there is the danger that if the conflict with Iran drags on, US involvement in Northeast Asia could weaken. That could lead China, North Korea, and Russia to take provocative actions in Northeast Asia.

The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, must prepare for the possibility of multiple crises in the Middle East, Northeast Asia and elsewhere. Wherever it might be, there is a very real need to protect Japanese nationals. To do that will certainly require the holding of multiple National Security Council meetings.

Black smoke from an Iranian missile attack rises from Bahrain's capital, Manama. February 28 (©Reuters)

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Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun

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