Expert Says Move Beyond Tokyo vs Rural Debate and Focus on Happiness Levels

The upcoming general election will be held on October 27. Key issues being debated include Japan's declining births and aging population. Another major topic is the centralization of Tokyo. Rural areas, which are already facing severe population decline, are particularly concerned about the continued outflow of young people to the capital.

However, Japan's development has benefited from the concentration of people and resources in major metropolitan areas, making this dynamic difficult to change. 

Some experts stress the importance of shifting the focus to "happiness levels" and moving away from the outdated Tokyo-versus-rural framework in future discussions.

Ishiba's Commitment to Local Regions

On October 15, the first day of the general election campaign, Shigeru Ishiba, the new Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, delivered a speech in Iwaki, Fukushima Prefecture. 

He stated, "It's never the elites in the capital who change the country. It's the people in the local regions — the everyday citizens."

While Ishiba has faced criticism for inconsistencies in some of his remarks, his commitment to prioritizing local regions has remained consistent. 

In his October 4 policy speech, Ishiba emphasized the government's plan to focus on five pillars of protection, including safeguarding regional communities. He also announced the creation of a Headquarters for Creating New Regional Economies and Living Environments and mentioned doubling grants for regional development.

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Concerns from Tokyo

At the same time, Tokyo is feeling a growing sense of concern over this stance. 

At the National Governors' Association (NGA) meeting in August, an emergency declaration aimed at addressing population decline included a reference to "population concentration in specific areas."

This was widely interpreted as blaming Tokyo's centralization for exacerbating the problem. The "Tokyo vs regional areas" debate has resurfaced repeatedly at the NGA and other forums. Many prefectures fear that as more people move to Tokyo, which already has the lowest total fertility rate in the country, the population decline will accelerate.

In response to Shigeru Ishiba's appointment as prime minister, a Tokyo official remarked, "Will we be cast as the villain again?" 

Many candidates in the upcoming general election are once again emphasizing policies focused on regional revitalization.

Tokyo's dominance is evident in the statistics. As of October 1, 2023, population estimates from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications show that Tokyo's population grew by 0.34%, reaching 14.08 million compared to 2022. This represents an increase of 0.14 percentage points and makes Tokyo the only region to experience population growth. 

Moreover, Tokyo's nominal GDP stood at approximately ¥113 trillion JPY (about $741 billion USD), accounting for over 10% of the national population and more than 20% of Japan's total GDP.

Concentration of Talent

However, when viewed from a broader perspective, a different picture emerges. "The concentration isn't limited to Tokyo alone. It also includes the three surrounding prefectures — Saitama, Chiba, and Kanagawa. Criticizing only Tokyo is misguided," says Takeshi So, a professor of urban planning at Reitaku University's School of Engineering.

The Tokyo Metropolis and the three surrounding prefectures account for nearly 30% of Japan's population and over 30% of its GDP. Notably, the region's GDP share exceeds its population share. 

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Professor So explains, "This demonstrates the area's exceptional productivity. To redistribute the population to rural areas, it is crucial to maintain current productivity levels. However, the means to achieve this remain uncertain."

Reflecting on Japan's development since the Meiji Restoration, Professor So explains, "Japan has prospered by concentrating talent from across the country into major cities. This concentration has fueled the country's remarkable growth, and changing this structure is not realistic." 

He concludes, "The concept of a fulfilling life likely varies between large cities and rural areas. Our focus should be on discussions that raise the happiness level in each region."

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(Read the article in Japanese.)

Author: Shinnosuke Oizumi, The Sankei Shimbun