Satellite image showing the entrance to a tunnel destroyed in a US airstrike, at a nuclear facility in Isfahan, central Iran, on June 22 (provided by Maxar Technologies, Reuters/Kyodo).
As tensions rise in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific, few voices are as well-positioned to offer insights as Fred Fleitz. A former CIA analyst and chief of staff to the Donald Trump administration's National Security Council, Fleitz now serves as vice chair of the America First Policy Institute's Center for American Security. During his recent visit to Tokyo, Fleitz sat down with JAPAN Forward to share his perspective on United States military strategy, Iran, North Korean provocations, and what Japan is doing to meet the demands of a shifting global order.
In a wide-ranging conversation, Fleitz discussed the Trump administration's recent airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the intelligence coup behind Israel's precision strikes, and the fragility of US-China deterrence. He also touched on Japan's growing responsibilities as a security partner.
Whether on diplomacy with Pyongyang or debates over defense spending in Tokyo, Fleitz laid out a blunt but pragmatic assessment of the challenges ahead.
A Ceasefire and a Message of Resolve
Following a decisive US airstrike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure and a subsequent ceasefire between Israel and Iran, Fleitz emphasized that options for progress through diplomacy had been exhausted before taking military action.
"Trump gave Iran sixty days to negotiate in good faith. When that failed, he extended another two weeks. But Iran refused to abandon its uranium enrichment, which is clearly linked to weapons development," Fleitz said. The strike, he argued, showcased Trump's willingness to use precision and force when necessary, sending a message not only to Iran but also to adversaries like China and Russia.
Fleitz maintained that the ultimate goal was a peaceful resolution, but he expressed skepticism about the Iranian regime's willingness to negotiate in good faith. "This government is unlikely to step down or reform without significant external pressure," he noted. However, he pointed out that diminished Iranian influence could revive stalled regional diplomacy, particularly to broaden the Abraham Accords and efforts to stabilize Gaza.
Mossad's Pivotal Role in Israeli Strikes
Asked about Israel's earlier precision attacks on Iran, Fleitz credited the Mossad for an intelligence operation of exceptional sophistication.
"Mossad had agents inside Iran feeding precise human intelligence. They recruited defectors from the Iranian government and military, even setting up drone bases inside Iran," he explained. For example: "They sent fake messages to lure generals to targeted locations. The Iranian regime didn't even know it was happening. That's both a triumph for Israeli intelligence and a massive failure for Iran."
According to Fleitz, the most consequential moment came when Iran fired missiles directly at Israel. That act of retaliation allowed Israel to assess and expose Iran's underperforming air defenses. "They had Russian-made systems that either didn't work or weren't deployed in sufficient numbers. Israel figured out how to neutralize them. Without that attack, they [the Israelis] wouldn't have known," he said.
Implications for Japan
Japan imports roughly 80% of its oil from the Middle East, and Fleitz acknowledged Tokyo's delicate position. While Japan neither endorsed nor condemned the US strike, it called for de-escalation.
"Japan wants peace in the region, understandably. But Iran may not see Japan as a neutral player due to its close alliance with the US. Still, if there's any chance Japan can help defuse tensions, it should try," he said.
On the question of whether Japan should dispatch its Self-Defense Forces to the Strait of Hormuz, Fleitz was cautious. "I don't think that will be necessary. China has advised Iran not to escalate, and Iran doesn't want to jeopardize that relationship. I don't believe the Strait will be closed," he added.
The North Korea Challenge
Turning to North Korea, Fleitz warned that Pyongyang's arsenal is already formidable and growing. "They likely have 40 to 80 nuclear weapons and solid-fueled ICBMs that can launch quickly. That's a serious threat to US national security."
He expressed hope that Trump would pursue another summit with Kim Jong Un. "Trump is personally invested in resolving the abductee issue, especially after his conversations with Prime Minister (Shinzo) Abe. That will absolutely be part of any renewed talks," Fleitz affirmed.
However, he also noted new complications: "North Korea resumed missile testing after perceiving US weakness under (Joe) Biden. They've grown closer to Russia, receiving satellite tech and cheap energy in exchange for weapons and possibly troops in Ukraine."
Fleitz was particularly concerned about battlefield experience being gained by North Korean soldiers in Ukraine. "They're dying in large numbers, but also learning modern warfare tactics, including drone warfare. That's dangerous for global stability," he said.
Japan's Defense Spending and Industrial Base
Asked whether Japan is doing enough to deter regional threats, Fleitz urged greater defense spending and capability development.
"Trump supports alliances, but he expects allies to carry their weight. Japanese officials often respond that they want to spend more, but face backlogs in US weapons deliveries. That's a fair complaint," Fleitz noted. "Japan should both buy American and increase its own defense production."
He dismissed concerns that US global commitments would weaken its posture in Asia. "There's a view that we can't support Ukraine and deter China at the same time. I don't buy that. A global power like the US has to do both," he insisted.
Still, he acknowledged that many Trump advisors view China as the number one threat, and that resource prioritization debates will continue.
On Trade and Tariffs
Emphasizing that he is not an economist, Fleitz briefly addressed the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff policy. This is an issue of considerable concern in Japan.
"Trump wants fair trade, and that includes eliminating structural imbalances and non-tariff barriers," Fleitz said. "Whatever the friction, he values the US-Japan relationship deeply. This is a minor dispute between friends."
Final Thoughts
Fleitz concluded by reaffirming Trump's hard stance on Iran's nuclear ambitions. "The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was the worst deal ever. It allowed enrichment and had weak verification. Under Trump, any new deal would prohibit both uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing. No exceptions."
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Author: Daniel Manning
