A satellite image reveals extensive bomb damage to a facility related to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Black smoke rising from it in Tehran. February 28. (PLEIADES NEO (C) AIRBUS DS 2026, provided by Reuters/Kyodo)
"Khamenei has been eliminated, and Xi Jinping is trembling." This phrase has been circulating widely among Chinese observers in the past few days. The United States and Israeli military strikes against Iran have triggered a profound geopolitical shock.
Beyond their immediate regional consequences, many in the international community are asking a broader question: what do these developments mean for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and for Xi Jinping personally?
In my view, the upheaval in Iran carries multiple layers of implications for Beijing, ranging from strategic and military consequences to economic and psychological reverberations within the Chinese leadership.
A Major Blow to Beijing's Global Ambitions
First and foremost, the crisis in Iran represents a significant setback to the CCP's global strategic ambitions.
It has long been widely understood that replacing the United States as the dominant global power is a central objective of Beijing's long-term strategy. Within that strategy, Iran occupies a pivotal position, serving as the CCP's most important partner in the Middle East and a crucial node in what some analysts have described as Beijing's broader geopolitical "Ignition Plan."
In simple terms, this strategy seeks to create multiple flashpoints around the world, forcing the United States to confront simultaneous crises across different regions and thereby overstretching American strategic capacity.
To sustain such pressure, Beijing has been willing to provide support — even to organizations such as Hamas that many countries classify as terrorist groups. Iran, for its part, has long served as a central patron and logistical hub for numerous militant organizations throughout the Middle East.
If the Iranian regime — the backbone of this network — is seriously weakened or removed, it would represent a major disruption to the architecture Beijing has quietly relied upon to challenge US influence globally.
In that sense, dismantling what many view as a nexus of extremism in the Middle East would not merely reshape regional politics. It would also deal a strategic blow to the CCP's broader geopolitical calculations.
Myth of the CCP's Military Defense Systems
Second, the events surrounding Iran have exposed the gap between the CCP's military propaganda and battlefield reality.
As recently as September 2025, numerous Chinese media outlets enthusiastically reported what they described as a "major shift" in Middle Eastern arms procurement. Iran, according to those reports, had decided to introduce China's HQ-9B long-range air defense system. That made it the third Middle Eastern country — after Qatar and Egypt — to deploy the platform.
These reports went even further. They suggested that the HQ-9B had already begun forming an anti-stealth defensive shield across the region. With Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran all reportedly selecting Chinese air defense systems, the narrative claimed that Washington's long-standing dominance of the Middle Eastern security architecture had been broken.
According to these optimistic projections, future aerial confrontations between the HQ-9B and American F-35 fighters might become a routine feature of Middle Eastern skies.
Reality, however, has proven far less flattering.
During the recent US–Israeli strikes against Iran, as well as during the swift American operation in early January that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, Chinese-supplied defensive systems appeared effectively powerless in the face of US military capabilities.
Weapons that once appeared formidable in Chinese military parades now seem, at least to critics, more symbolic than operational — grand displays that fail to perform when confronted with real combat conditions.
Economic Shockwaves for Beijing
Third, the turmoil surrounding Iran threatens to deliver a significant economic blow to China.
According to estimates from TD Securities, China currently purchases roughly 99% of Iran's oil exports, accounting for approximately 13% of China's seaborne crude imports in 2025.
Conversely, Iran has become deeply dependent on the Chinese market. In 2024, roughly 90% of Iran's sanctioned oil exports were sold to China. And nearly half of Iran's government revenue was reportedly tied to these energy transactions.
If Iran's oil production or export capacity is disrupted by prolonged military operations, China stands to lose one of its most important sources of discounted crude oil.
The economic ties extend far beyond oil. Beijing and Tehran previously signed a sweeping Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement, under which China pledged to invest $400 billion USD in Iran over 25 years.
Iran also occupies a key position within China's Belt and Road Initiative, serving as a strategic corridor connecting Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.
Some reports suggest that Chinese investment in Iranian energy and infrastructure projects has already exceeded $100 billion.
Should the current conflict escalate or destabilize Iran's political system, many of these investments could effectively evaporate, turning into sunk costs with little chance of recovery.
The Psychological Impact of Precision Decapitation
Fourth, the use of precision strikes against senior leadership targets carries a powerful psychological impact for Beijing's ruling elite.
Xi Jinping has often declared that China's 1.4 billion people constitute a "great steel wall." Historically, the CCP has relied on the notion that sheer population size can serve as a strategic shield.
During the Chinese Civil War, historical accounts describe instances in which CCP forces allegedly pushed civilians — including women and children — to the front lines, calculating that Nationalist troops might hesitate to open fire.
Yet the logic of modern precision warfare undermines that traditional shield.
When facing technologies capable of targeting leadership structures directly, the concept of a "human wall" becomes irrelevant. Precision decapitation strategies focus not on mass armies but on command nodes and political leadership.
Under such conditions, the protective barrier of population size disappears. The burden of vulnerability shifts directly onto the bodies of the leaders themselves.
For Xi Jinping and the CCP's top leadership, the psychological implications of this strategic reality are unmistakable.
Triggers in the External Environment
Fifth, dramatic changes in the international environment can easily trigger fractures within the CCP's internal power structure.
Following the arrest of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro in January, Xi Jinping initiated a sweeping purge within China's military leadership. He removed senior figures, including Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department Chief Liu Zhenli.
Their removal left a seven-member Central Military Commission effectively reduced to only two active members capable of voting — an unprecedented situation that raises serious questions about the functioning of China's military command system.
Although the reasons behind Zhang's detention remain widely debated, his previous roles included overseeing China's weapons development and procurement systems.
This has led some observers to speculate whether Xi discovered severe deficiencies within China's military equipment — deficiencies that became impossible to conceal in the face of US military capabilities.
Internal Fractures and Political Crisis
Whatever the true reason, the arrests appear to have triggered an extraordinary political crisis within China's leadership circles.
Some insiders have even suggested that the shock may exceed the turmoil caused by Lin Biao's failed escape in 1971, one of the most dramatic political crises of the Mao era.
The purge has triggered a profound crisis. Signs of soft resistance abound: no theater or group army has publicly endorsed the move against Zhang. Yet, it is now over a month since the announcement.
The National People's Congress Standing Committee held two sessions in February — including an unscheduled emergency one. Yet, it failed to strip Zhang and Liu of their deputy status. That is a prerequisite under CCP rules for prosecution. It suggests resistance within the legislative apparatus as well.
In CCP lore, "the Party commands the gun," yet history often shows the reverse. A leader unable to fully control the military faces existential peril. Before the Chinese New Year, Xi broke tradition by addressing troops via video from indoors rather than in person. He was surrounded only by Zhang Shengmin and Defense Minister Dong Jun — projecting an image of profound isolation. Other military figures were seated distantly.
Fear of a 'Soviet Moment'
At a moment when the CCP's internal power structure appears unusually fragile, the shockwaves from Iran carry another deeper concern: the possibility of systemic instability.
Sources close to China's military circles say the death of Iran's supreme leader has been viewed internally as one of the most consequential international developments capable of influencing Communist Party stability in two decades.
The timing is particularly sensitive, coming shortly after the arrests of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. At this moment, morale within the armed forces is reportedly unsettled.
According to several individuals familiar with the military system, the CCP leadership has ordered political work departments across China's theater commands to increase the frequency of ideological reporting. Grassroots units are now required to submit regular summaries of soldiers' discussions about the Middle East situation.
Some units have even convened closed-door meetings in which officers individually questioned soldiers about their views on Iran and required them to sign written statements affirming their political loyalty.
Online discussion in China about leadership assassination, military loyalty, or regime change has been heavily censored or suppressed.
Behind these measures lies a deeper anxiety — what many inside the CCP refer to as avoiding a "Soviet moment," a sudden collapse triggered by a chain reaction of political and social pressures.
Unanswered Question of Succession Resurfaces
The targeted elimination of Iran's leadership has also revived a sensitive issue inside China: succession.
Iran, anticipating the possibility of leadership decapitation, had reportedly prepared contingency plans in advance. These included the rapid formation of an interim leadership council and the division of the Revolutionary Guard into autonomous operational units capable of continuing military operations even if the top leadership was eliminated.
By contrast, Xi Jinping has yet to designate a clear successor.
Reports suggest that one of Xi's major conflicts with other senior CCP figures revolves precisely around this issue. Increasingly, speculation has emerged that Xi may wish to emulate North Korea's dynastic model and transform China into a family-based political dynasty.
Some sources claim Xi has multiple sons born outside his publicly known family, each reportedly placed in different positions for political grooming. If such a dynastic ambition were realized, it would effectively reduce many of China's traditional revolutionary families — once equal partners within the Party elite — to subordinate status.
In this sense, Xi's ambitions could be interpreted as a challenge to the entire existing political order of the CCP elite.
At such a delicate moment, the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may offer other factions within the Party an unexpected opportunity to challenge Xi before such a dynasty can fully take shape.
A Larger Question: Will Washington Stop with Iran?
For Beijing, however, the most unsettling question may be even broader:
Will the United States stop with Iran?
Donald Trump has frequently described Xi Jinping as "a good friend." Yet many of the major geopolitical actions undertaken during his current administration have directly undermined Beijing's strategic interests.
These moves include:
- Reasserting US control over the Panama Canal.
- Cracking down on transnational drug networks linked to Chinese capital.
- The capture of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro.
- Signals suggesting potential intervention in Cuba.
- And now the ongoing military operations against Iran.
Each of these developments represents a significant strategic setback for Beijing.
For decades, the CCP has viewed the United States as its ultimate adversary and has quietly prepared for a long-term confrontation. Many of its global strategies — including unrestricted warfare tactics — were designed with that eventual conflict in mind.
Whether Trump's policies arise from strategic calculation or instinctive geopolitical intuition, the result is clear. The CCP's international environment is deteriorating rapidly, and many of its carefully constructed geopolitical arrangements are unraveling.
Trump's earlier warning that any Taiwan invasion would prompt Beijing strikes — once dismissed — now carries weight after Maduro's seizure and Khamenei's elimination. US disclosures of detailed PLA Rocket Force data coincided with Xi's sweeping purges there, hinting at intelligence breaches.
In a hot conflict, America possesses the capacity for swift, devastating blows beyond decapitation. Recent discussions even question whether the CCP might dismantle its nationwide surveillance cameras. These tools for domestic control could inadvertently expose leaders' movements, as reportedly occurred in Iran via infiltrated traffic systems.
These events may force Xi to reconsider forcible Taiwan reunification.
The Strategic Contest Ahead
In the end, the rapidly changing global landscape can seem confusing and chaotic. Yet beneath the surface, the central storyline may be far simpler.
It is a confrontation between the free world and the axis of communism and terrorism embodied by the CCP.
From Tehran to Beijing, the outcomes of this confrontation will shape the political future of the twenty-first century.
And in that contest, many believe the final outcome will be clear: systems built on repression and fear rarely prevail indefinitely.
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Author: Jennifer Zeng
