Chinese President Xi Jinping closes his eyes tightly at the closing ceremony of the National People's Congress, March 11, Beijing (©Kyodo)
The Chinese president's assertion of "100 years of unprecedented changes" may be materializing. This time, however, the upheaval seems to be centered around Xi Jinping himself.
Bizarre Developments and Rising Rumors
Since whispers of Xi Jinping suffering a stroke during the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) Third Plenary Session in July, China's political sphere has been awash with unusual developments and persistent rumors. Speculation about whether Xi has lost full or partial control over his authority has only intensified. One event stands out as particularly significant: the arrest of Miao Hua. Miao was a key member of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and Director of the Political Work Department. This development could mark the beginning of a major upheaval within China's political landscape. It also suggests that Xi might no longer fully control the military.
The Arrest of Miao Hua
On November 11, I reported the arrest of Miao Hua, a prediction officially confirmed on November 28, making this one of the earliest reports in English-language media. This arrest holds immense significance. Beyond Xi Jinping himself, the CMC consists of only five other members, forming the apex of military leadership in China. The removal of a CMC member is therefore not a trivial matter.
Who is Miao Hua?
To understand the significance of Miao Hua's arrest, it's important to examine Miao Hua's background and his longstanding ties to Xi Jinping.
Miao Hua, now 69, has spent decades serving in prominent political roles within the Chinese military. Early in his career, he managed political affairs in the Nanjing Military Region. At the age of 44, he rose to the position of Director of the Political Department for the 31st Group Army, stationed in Fujian Province. This marked a pivotal moment in his career, as it coincided with Xi Jinping's appointment as acting governor of Fujian.
Miao's extended tenure in Fujian allowed him to establish a close relationship with Xi, who, during this period, held several military-adjacent positions. He was First Secretary of the Fuzhou Military Sub-district Party Committee and Political Commissar of the Fujian Anti-Aircraft Reserve Division.
A Steady Ascent Under Xi's Leadership
After Xi Jinping ascended to the helm of the Chinese Communist Party in 2013, Miao Hua's career trajectory accelerated rapidly. He was appointed Political Commissar of the Navy in 2014 and earned the rank of Admiral in 2015. By 2017, Miao had assumed the role of Director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission. Then, the following year, he became a member of the commission itself.
These swift and significant promotions underscore Xi Jinping's trust and reliance on Miao Hua. They also mark him as one of Xi's closest military allies. The bond they shared was evident in the unparalleled speed at which Miao rose through the ranks — a testament to his perceived loyalty and capability within Xi's inner circle.
A Suspicious Announcement
An investigation into Miao Hua was announced through an unusual channel: the Ministry of Defense. The brief statement noted that Miao was "suspected of serious violations" and had been suspended following deliberation by the Party Central Committee.
Historically, announcements about high-ranking officials, such as former Vice Chairman Xu Caihou former Director-General of the CMC Zhang Yang, who was the predecessor of Miao Hua, were made by Xinhua News Agency, the CCP's primary mouthpiece. The decision to have the Ministry of Defense — a department under the State Council — deliver news of a vice-state-level official's suspension raises eyebrows. This unorthodox approach highlights a deviation from established norms.
A High-Profile Arrest Embarrasses Xi Jinping
Reports of Miao Hua's capture describe a scene reminiscent of a Hollywood thriller. On November 9, 200 armed military police reportedly stormed Miao's residential compound, apprehending him in front of onlookers with a black hood over his head.
Such a public arrest appears designed to send a strong message. Given Miao's long-standing association with Xi Jinping, the spectacle dealt a significant blow to Xi's image and his network of loyalists.
Arrest Timing Suggests a Broader Agenda
Miao Hua's arrest came just days before Xi Jinping embarked on international visits to attend the APEC and G20 summits. During Xi's absence, investigators reportedly compiled damning evidence against Miao, circulating it within key circles.
By the time Xi returned on November 24, the case was virtually irrefutable. Within only 4 days, the Ministry of Defense publicly announced Miao's suspension. The timing strongly implies that Xi may not have been directly involved in the investigation, adding to speculation about power dynamics within the CCP.
Fallout Expands Beyond Miao Hua
Rumors of further purges in the military abound. Rocket Force Commander Wang Houbin, Eastern Theater Command Commander Lin Xiangyang, and Armed Police Force Commander Wang Chunning are all said to be under investigation. Notably, Lin has reportedly either committed suicide or been murdered.
Wang Chunning's conspicuous absence from a national public security video conference on November 21 fueled speculation. His usual seat beside Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong was occupied by Zhang Hongbing, the Armed Police political commissar.
Other senior figures allegedly under scrutiny include Zhong Shaojun, Xi's military "chief of staff," and Navy political commissar Yuan Huazhi. The fallout could implicate many individuals tied to Xi Jinping or Miao Hua, threatening the coherence of Xi's military influence.
A Family Connection Adds Intrigue
Adding to the drama, rumors have surfaced regarding Cai Qi's son, Cai Erjin, who is said to be under investigation. While some claim he was detained for espionage, others suggest he was involved in a mysterious car accident on Beijing's North Fifth Ring Road, allegedly staged by military intelligence. This incident echoes the scandal involving Ling Jihua's son before the 18th Party Congress, which had profound consequences for Hu Jintao's leadership and smoothed Xi Jinping's rise to power.
Cai Qi, a Politburo Standing Committee member and one of Xi's closest allies, has also displayed erratic behavior, notably skipping key public appearances with Xi. If both Cai and Miao Hua, Xi's trusted confidants, are under fire, it could signal a coordinated effort to weaken Xi's authority.
Diminished Public Presence
Since the CCP's Third Plenary Session, mentions of Xi Jinping in state media have noticeably decreased. Meanwhile, other high-ranking officials have received greater coverage, signaling a potential shift in power dynamics. Public declarations of loyalty to Xi, once routine, have also become less frequent.
Zhang Youxia Steps Into the Spotlight
Zhang Youxia, a Central Military Commission Vice Chairman, has emerged as a central figure in this unfolding drama. Recently, Zhang met with United States National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Elsewhere, he also received a state-level reception in Vietnam. During Xi's absence, Zhang also held talks with Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov and presided over a military theory work conference, . These have further amplified his prominence.
Zhang Youxia's Role in the Purge: A Preemptive Move
Amid the ongoing speculation, military experts suggest that this new wave of purges within the People's Liberation Army (PLA) may be orchestrated by Zhang Youxia. The goal appears to be sidelining Xi Jinping's influence in the military and potentially forcing his resignation at the CCP's Fourth Plenary Session.
Zhang's alleged motivation lies in self-preservation. Former Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who fell from grace in 2023, was Zhang's subordinate and successor as head of the Equipment Development Department. Accusations of bribery against Li inevitably raise questions about whether Zhang was the recipient of those bribes. Faced with potential scrutiny, Zhang may have opted to act preemptively, reshaping military leadership to protect his position.
Growing Dissent Within the PLA
Xi Jinping's extensive military purges and structural overhauls have reportedly fostered widespread discontent. His arrests of senior officers, such as respected Air Force General Liu Yazhou, and his controversial restructuring of the Rocket Force, have alienated significant factions within the military. These moves have also heightened resistance to any potential invasion of Taiwan, a scenario the PLA reportedly opposes.
Yao Cheng, a former Navy Lieutenant Commander, claims that Xi's inability to enforce the Chairman Responsibility System — a doctrine centralizing military control under his leadership — has led to internal paralysis within the CMC. With figures like Miao Hua and Li Shangfu removed, the body's effectiveness is severely compromised.
Speculation on Xi Jinping's Political Future
Yao Cheng predicts that Zhang Youxia's actions could culminate in a reorganization of the CMC at the Fourth Plenary Session. Xi Jinping may retain a ceremonial role, stepping back from positions of substantive power. For example, giving up such as General Secretary of the CCP and Chairman of the Military Commission. This strategy would aim to avoid widespread turmoil while addressing discontent within the Party and military ranks.
Rumors suggesting that Xi Jinping may step down at the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session have been circulating online for some time. Until recently, such claims lacked substantive evidence. However, the extraordinary circumstances surrounding the recent arrest of Miao Hua have added weight to these speculations.
I now lean towards believing that while the internal dynamics are still unfolding, a consensus on the distribution of power in a post-Xi Jinping era has yet to be reached.
For now, Xi appears to be retained as the public face of the regime, allowing time for further maneuvering behind the scenes. The delay may indicate that those vying for control are waiting for a more opportune moment to usher Xi out of his leadership role.
Unusual Emphasis on Stability
Recent comments by Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong about maintaining "social stability and political order" during "this winter and next spring" have fueled rumors of imminent political upheaval. Ostensibly they are aimed at addressing rising unemployment and economic dissatisfaction. However, some interpret these remarks as hints of deeper concerns — potential health or political crises involving Xi Jinping.
Reports of a scar on Xi's head, allegedly from minor brain surgery, have added fuel to the fire. Combined with the CCP's increased control measures, these developments evoke historical precedents where leadership changes were accompanied by heightened social vigilance.
The Looming Storm
Internally, China faces escalating public dissatisfaction and a rise in violent "revenge against society" incidents. Externally, the prospect of renewed US tariffs under the Donald Trump administration presents another significant challenge.
Under this dual pressure, the CCP's stability appears increasingly precarious. A sudden collapse of its already fragile system would not be entirely unexpected. Meanwhile, the Party grapples with unprecedented internal and external crises.
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Author: Jennifer Zeng
Find articles by Jennifer Zeng on JAPAN Forward. Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) and on her blog page, Jennifer's World.
