LDP president Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (second from left) pins a victory rosette on a projected winner on February 8 at party HQ in Nagatacho, Tokyo. (©Sankei by Naoki Aikawa)
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) scored a landslide victory in the February 8 Lower House Election. The party vaulted from 198 seats before the election to more than 300, and as of 5:30 AM February 9, it had already secured 316 seats, according to Japanese media tallies. That puts the LDP not only above a straight majority but also past the two-thirds supermajority threshold (310 seats). This gives the government the power to override bills even if the Upper House rejects them. It also meets the Lower House requirement to initiate proposals for constitutional revision.
The scale of the win is striking by historical standards. At 316 seats, Takaichi has surpassed both Yasuhiro Nakasone's and Shinzo Abe's peaks, placing the result at the top of the most dominant postwar election outcomes for any party. Past LDP high-water mark victories were smaller: 300 seats under Yasuhiro Nakasone in 1986, 296 under both Hayato Ikeda in 1960 and Junichiro Koizumi in 2005, and 294 under the first Shinzo Abe administration in 2012.
Crushing Centrist Defeat
The rout was especially severe for the Centrist Reform Alliance, formed through the merger of the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito. The alliance entered the election with 167 seats but fell short of 50, with senior figures including Katsuya Okada, Yukio Edano, Jun Azumi, and long-timer Ichiro Ozawa losing their single-seat district races.
Yoshihiko Noda, a co-leader of the Centrist Reform Alliance, told a press conference on February 8 that the bloc was headed for a disastrous defeat. "I bear primary responsibility for this crushing defeat," he said, adding, "I deserve to die a thousand deaths."
LDP Secretary-General Shunichi Suzuki listed two reasons for the historic victory. First, Takaichi's personal popularity. The second point he made was the opposition's failure on many fronts. This appears to include the CDP and Komeito decisions to disband their parties and form a new one immediately preceding the election.
Small Parties Gain as the Vote Splinters
Smaller parties made incremental gains. Sanseito expanded from its pre-election total of two seats to 13, while the Tomorrow Party of Japan surged into the Lower House with 11 seats, securing representation there for the first time.
LDP-coalition partners Ishin no Kai, as well as the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), added small gains to their pre-election levels. Ishin picked up two seats while the DPP added one. Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Party won no seats.
A total of 1,284 candidates ran for seats in the Lower House. Because the LDP and its coalition partner Ishin largely avoided coordinating nominations, they ended up competing head-to-head in 85 districts.
The centrist camp, the DPP, the Japanese Communist Party, and Sanseito also fielded candidates aggressively. With the opposition often splitting the vote among multiple contenders, only 43 districts ultimately shaped up as clear one-on-one contests between the ruling side and a single opposition challenger.
Fast-track Pledges Now Expected
Tax on Food
Most parties proposed reducing the consumption tax on food items to zero for at least a few years' time. The LDP and its Ishin coalition partner proposed an initial two-year term to measure the impact on the overall economy. Expect this to proceed quickly.
Constitutional reform
Takaichi said repeatedly during the campaign and again on a commercial TV program on February 8 that constitutional revision is "a core LDP principle." She added that she hoped the Diet's Commission on the Constitution would now be able to "properly deliberate concrete proposals." Constitutional reform is also one of the agreed goals of the LDP-Ishin coalition.
National Defense
Look for a new National Defense Strategy and better conditions for the Self-Defense Force. Many voters placed a high priority on security. With Okinawa on the front line in many respects, all four Lower House seats in Okinawa Prefecture were also grabbed by the LDP. Takaichi referred to the national security theme, including strengthening the Japan-US alliance, in her campaign speeches.Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi also prioritized the new National Defense Strategy after his reelection was confirmed late on February 8.
Strong Economy
The success of many of the policy priorities for the government depends on escalating the growth of Japan's economy.
According to the 2025 coalition agreement, the LDP and Ishin plan a shift to more inflation-responsive policy by revising income-tax deductions to reflect price rises. To achieve this, the coalition aims to introduce a refundable tax credit and create a new government efficiency bureau to review and scrap low-impact tax breaks and large subsidies.
Proposals that emphasize good governance and economic growth, and that complement proposed shifts in social security and consumption tax policy, are expected.
Social Security
Voters are looking for a better balance between the tax burden on working-age families and social services that support previous working generations. Exactly how these policies will be developed is unclear, but Takaichi has emphasized that igniting the economy is one key.
The LDP and Ishin no Kai laid out many of these and other priorities in the coalition agreement. Opposition parties DPP and Sanseito agree with several of those priorities. All eyes will be on how close to a national consensus these parties come for moving these policies forward.
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(Read a related article in Japanese.)
Author: Daniel Manning
