John Carroll 
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Recent opinion polls have shown that close to 90% of the Japanese public have a negative opinion of China. Among the reasons for the unfavorable attitude towards Japan's giant neighbor are the continuing incursions by Chinese vessels into waters around the Senkaku Islands, the arrests of Japanese living in China, attacks on Japanese schoolchildren in Chinese cities, and the anti-Japan sentiment rampant on Chinese social media.
Japan would hardly seem fertile ground for Chinese influence operations. But that is definitely not so, according to a new study. A team led by Professor Tetsuro Kobayashi of Waseda University's School of Political Science and Economics carried out the research.
Using two online survey experiments, he and his team examined how Japanese citizens respond to narratives propagated by authoritarian regimes (namely China and Russia) compared to those dominant in democratic societies. They exposed survey participants to both types of narratives and then measured shifts in opinion.
The results were startling and definitely concerning.
Surprising Revelations
According to Kobayashi, "The results showed that both illiberal and mainstream narratives produced persuasive effects in the intended direction. However, the illiberal narratives tended to have a greater impact than mainstream narratives."
A similar study was previously conducted in Germany. It had shown that individuals with low political knowledge and strong authoritarian tendencies were more vulnerable to illiberal narratives and conspiracy theories. However, the responses of Japanese participants in Kobayashi's study revealed them to be broadly susceptible to illiberal narratives regardless of their prior political knowledge and ideological profile.
That led Kobayashi to conclude, "This suggests that it is not only specific segments of the Japanese population that are influenced by illiberal narratives. Rather, it suggests that Japanese individuals are broadly susceptible."
'Autocracies Win Minds'
An article in the online journal "Democratization" sums up the group's research. Published on March 12, it is titled "Autocracies Win the Minds of the Democratic Public: How Japanese citizens are persuaded by illiberal narratives propagated by authoritarian regimes." It defines illiberal narratives as "story-based messages promoted by authoritarian states to influence public opinion in their favor."
The research involved two online experiments with more than 2,500 Japanese participants in each. Participants were exposed to Chinese and Russian narratives as well as mainstream narratives concerning 12 topics. In China's case, these included the Uyghur, Tibet, and Taiwan issues. Japan's handling of the release of wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear power plant was also included. China also expended considerable effort to convince the Japanese public that its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic was more effective than approaches in Japan and other democratic societies.
The contrasting narratives canceled each other out to a certain degree. However, the illiberal narratives ended up having a stronger impact, especially when presented last. That was true even when participants knew that the narrative originated in China or Russia ー attribution had minimal impact.
In other words, the illiberal narratives effectively shaped public opinion, even among skeptics or individuals with quite different political beliefs.
SNS Makes Influence Easier
The study does not get into the question of why Japanese should be so vulnerable to illiberal narratives. However, it mentions the proliferation of social media.
SNS has created new avenues for authoritarian states to influence democratic societies, sway public opinion in their favor, and even destabilize target societies. These narratives are created in such a way as to appeal to and manipulate cultural emotions and values. Meanwhile, they undermine the liberal democratic order.
Persuasive narratives are specifically crafted to appeal to emotions, making it more difficult to construct counterarguments. They are powerful, and their effects are often enduring.
In China's case, such narratives are only one weapon in its influence operations and full-spectrum cognitive warfare on Western society. One specific "hard" propaganda case mentioned in the report was direct Chinese involvement in Japanese politics during the 2024 lower house election. "Wolf warrior" Xue Jian, the Chinese Consul General in Osaka, in effect endorsed the Reiwa Shinsengumi Party candidate.
The report notes that this was only one instance of China's public diplomacy extending its influence into Japan's domestic politics.
Proximity to China May Play a Role
One worrying conclusion reached in the study concerns the cultural proximity of East Asian democracies to China and Russia. According to the study, this may make them more receptive than other democracies to illiberal Chinese and Russian narratives that challenge the liberal international order. It adds, "This calls into question the assumed alignment of East Asian democracies with the US-led liberal democratic order."
The authors of the report do not explain how they came to this provocative conclusion. I would certainly like to see comparative research to either confirm or challenge it. After all, some segments of the citizenry of the United States and Europe have completely bought into Russian narratives.
If the conclusion is true, what is it about the cultural values and thought processes of East Asians that makes them different?
In any event, China, Russia, and other authoritarian regimes are clearly determined to exploit divisions in democratic societies. Trade wars present them with an environment that makes their task all the easier.
The question becomes how to counteract illiberal narratives and other forms of subversion designed to exploit domestic dissatisfaction in democracies.
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Author: John Carroll
