An equity investor examines how the theory of creative destruction, brought into focus by the 2025 Nobel Prize, is unfolding in Japan's political landscape.
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Sanae Takaichi delivers a greeting at the Liberal Democratic Party's joint parliamentary meeting following the leadership election, on the afternoon of October 4 at the party headquarters in Nagatacho, Tokyo.

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The Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded in October to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their respective work on economic growth. Specifically, Aghion and Howitt were recognized for their analysis on the role of creative destruction in sustained growth. 

Creative destruction explains how innovation and technological advancement drive long-term economic growth by dismantling outdated systems and replacing them with more efficient ones.

This theory holds profound implications for Japan's macroeconomic and political landscape, especially given the historic appointment of Sanae Takaichi as the country's first female prime minister. The timing couldn't be more symbolic. 

From Theory to Political Reality

The newly formed coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Nippon Ishin no Kai (Ishin) outlines a bold policy agenda that reimagines the reformist spirit of Abenomics. I anticipate that Takaichi's administration will usher in a new wave of creative destruction, challenging entrenched regimes that have long resisted transformative change.

Liberal Democratic Party President Sanae Takaichi (right) and Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) leader Hirofumi Yoshimura sign the coalition agreement at the National Diet Building, October 20. (©Sankei by Ataru Haruna)

A striking example of this occurred even before Takaichi officially assumed office: the LDP ended its 25-year coalition with Komeito party, citing irreconcilable policy differences. 

While Komeito attributes the split to Takaichi's perceived leniency regarding a slush fund scandal, the deeper divide lies in foreign policy, particularly toward China. Komeito has traditionally favored a dovish approach, whereas Takaichi advocates a more assertive, hawkish stance, echoing but surpassing the posture of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

A Case Study in Creative Destruction

Though the full impact of this policy shift remains to be seen, Takaichi swiftly forged a new coalition with Ishin, a party that shares her firm stance on China. Their joint policy agreement, released in October, signals a comprehensive redefinition of Japan's domestic and international priorities.

It's an exhilarating moment for Japan. The political realignment underway may catalyze long-overdue economic reforms and reshape the country's geopolitical strategy. Creative destruction, as expounded by Howitt and Aghion, is not just an academic concept. It's unfolding in real time, and Japan may be its next great case study.

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Author: Masakazu Hosomizu

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