Prime Minister Takaichi, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, pins roses on candidates confirmed elected in the 2026 Lower House election at the party’s Tokyo headquarters in Nagatacho on February 8. (©Sankei by Naoki Aikawa)
Just a day after the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) crushing victory in Japan's Lower House election, the political reverberations are already being felt. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's ruling party secured 316 of 465 seats, giving it the largest single-party share in postwar history.
A Lower House supermajority will allow the ruling party to override Upper House opposition on most bills and put them in the starting blocks for serious constitutional amendment talks.
Experts say the scale of last night's election is expected to reshape the country's domestic and security policy landscape, consolidate factional dynamics, and signal a potential ideological pivot within the party and beyond.
Why Voters Bet on Takaichi
Rintaro Nishimura, senior associate at the Asia Group and a specialist on Japanese politics see a trio of forces behind the LDP's landslide win: Takaichi's personal popularity, conservative constituents ready to move beyond the LDP's past scandals, and the lead opposition Centrist Reform Alliance's (CRA) failure to present itself as a serious alternative.
"The election was framed as a binary choice between Takaichi and the Centrist Reform Alliance," Nishimura explained. Voters responded to the LDP's image as the only party "capable of navigating a tough period for the nation both domestically and economically."
Takaichi's appeal, he added, is rooted in her record of results-oriented governance. Her leadership of last year's [2025] supplemental budget, which addressed inflationary pressures, offered tangible proof of competence.
On the international stage, Nishimura said the Japanese leader quickly established rapport with global leaders, including US President Donald Trump, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, and the Italian Prime Minister, projecting a sense of confidence and reliability, further amplifying her popularity.
Security Threats at the Gate
Domestic security concerns also shaped voter behavior. Heading into the New Year, Japan faces rising risks, from China's assertiveness to North Korea's nuclear threats and regional instability linked to Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine.
Since Takaichi's November Diet remarks on a potential Taiwan contingency, China, in particular, has intensified both military pressure and economic retaliation.
A January survey released by the Cabinet Office found that nearly 70% of respondents cited China's military modernization and its activities near Japan as their primary security concern.
"Voters want a party that can adapt and respond to challenges," the Asia Group analyst said. The LDP has advocated strengthening defense capabilities, enhancing intelligence operations, and pursuing pragmatic economic security measures.
By contrast, opposition messaging, often framed around "peace-oriented diplomacy" without practical deterrence, failed to resonate amid growing regional tensions, Nishimura added.
Generational shifts in political expectations likewise played a role, whereby Younger voters increasingly distrust parties focused on criticism without solutions. Nishimura noted that the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) has capitalized on this trend by negotiating across party lines, while the lead opposition CRA lost traction.
Under Takaichi, the LDP demonstrated pragmatism, securing policies such as stricter rules on foreign nationals and raising the income tax exemption threshold — measures that benefited from cross-party collaboration, Nishimura said.
Supermajority, Super Stakes
With a historic Lower House supermajority, the LDP can now pursue an ambitious domestic and security agenda. Legislative priorities are likely to include enhancing defense spending, revising three key strategic security documents and nuclear policies, and introducing anti-espionage measures.
Opposition efforts once threatened to dilute these initiatives, but Nishimura said, "that concern no longer exists if the LDP can theoretically override Upper House votes with the supermajority in the Lower House."
But fiscal policy will require careful messaging, Nishimura cautioned. Proposals such as the planned income tax hike for defense in 2027 come on the heels of temporary tax cuts, including the proposed two-year suspension of the food consumption tax.
Clear communication, he said, will be essential to justify these measures to the public while balancing national security needs.
On the question of constitutional amendment, a long-standing pillar of the LDP's founding ideology, the analyst described the situation as a "curious case."
While the ruling party now holds the seats needed to start discussions on potential revisions, and could theoretically gain wide support from parties like Ishin no Kai, DPP, Sanseito, and even Team Mirai to reach a supermajority in the Upper House, Nishimura said, "building [internal LDP] consensus and public support is a different matter altogether, as Abe experienced."
"Selling the necessity of these reforms to the public will be of paramount importance."
Power Shift in the LDP
Wielding the most commanding postwar mandate will mean Takaichi is poised to reshape the factional map within the LDP internally.
Although the incumbent prime minister did not previously have a strong factional base, her electoral success makes it difficult for lawmakers to challenge her authority. Nishimura drew parallels with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a close confidante of Takaichi, who once cultivated a loyal group of lawmakers whose victories were tied to his leadership in 2012.
"There will be a strong group of lawmakers who faced tough elections and were carried to victory by Takaichi's popularity," he noted. "These members, especially the conservatives and those implicated in the political funding scandal, could prove to be strong allies to Takaichi going forward."
With no national election required until July 2028, the Asia Group analyst said Takaichi has a significant window to advance her agenda without immediate political pressure and with broad backing from the former Abe and Aso faction line.
"It really feels like the 'liberal' experiment under Kishida and Ishiba has given way to a return to a more conservative LDP under Takaichi. Those who benefited under Ishiba, especially, will be pushed aside, similar to how more conservative lawmakers were pushed aside by Ishiba," Nishimura added.
RELATED:
- Historic Victory for Takaichi As the LDP Wins Super Majority
- Can PM Takaichi Transform Japan's Defense Before It's Too Late?
- Could a Zero Consumption Tax Drain Restaurant Traffic?
Author: Kenji Yoshida
