How the Opposition Miscalculated Takaichi's Path to Power

On October 15, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president Sanae Takaichi met at the Diet with Nippon Ishin no Kai leader Hirofumi Yoshimura. She sought cooperation for the upcoming prime-ministerial vote, including the option of a coalition. Both parties agreed to proceed with concrete policy talks. This was exactly the miscalculation three opposition figures made. These three lawmakers are Jun Azumi (Constitutional Democratic Party secretary-general), Tetsuo Saito (Komeito leader), and Yuichiro Tamaki (Democratic Party for the People leader).

Ishin had effectively bet on Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi to win the LDP race and was already talking with his camp. On that premise, the trio assumed Takaichi's team had no real channel to Ishin.

Secret LDP and Ishin Talks

What they missed was the LDP's quiet ongoing diplomacy. In the run-up to the October 15 leaders' meeting, LDP deputy secretary-general Koichi Hagiuda and a tiny team had been working hard on Ishin. As one Takaichi aide put it, "Only a very small circle handled it, entirely behind the scenes."

On a TV broadcast the same day, Saito struck a measured tone. "Forming a coalition should not just be about seat counts. I want to see substantive policy talks," he said. He also pressed Ishin to hold the line on its call to ban corporate and organizational donations. This was one of three policy areas where Ishin and the LDP policies diverged. Saito urged that it be treated as a top-tier negotiating item. Still, with Komeito now outside government, the feeling of being sidelined was hard to ignore.

*(From left) CDP's Jun Azumi, Komeito's Tetsuo Saito, and DPP's Yuichiro Tamaki*

Komeito insiders say the party assumed that once it left the coalition, "Takaichi would soon hit a wall." If the numbers had lined up, some add, Komeito might even have entertained the "Tamaki-for-PM" idea. This was an idea CDP secretary-general Azumi floated.

The 'Tamaki for Prime Minister' Idea

If the CDP (148 seats) joined forces with Ishin (35), the DPP (27), and Komeito (24), the bloc would total 234 seats. That would have been one more than the 233-seat majority. In that scenario, a four-party alliance would outnumber the LDP and push it into opposition. Takaichi would not have been able to do anything.

On October 8, in talks with DPP secretary-general Katsuya Shimba, Azumi signaled he wasn't fixed on CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda as the unified opposition nominee. Instead, he floated Tamaki: if the parties could rally around the DPP chief, "he would be a strong candidate." With Komeito on board, that scenario would have been close to ideal for Azumi's camp.

A DPP insider now laments the missed opening, saying that "had Tamaki laid out a governing blueprint with no preconditions, things might have played out differently." Pressing the CDP on security and energy "made a simple 'yes' impossible," the insider added, arguing he could have signaled pragmatism after taking power.

A Missed Golden Opportunity

Tamaki said he had "the resolve to become prime minister." According to a party insider, however, he "let a golden chance slip through his fingers."

On the night of October 15, Tamaki posted a video expressing displeasure with Ishin, which moved toward coalition talks with the LDP after a three-party opposition leaders' meeting. He said Ishin seemed "two-faced." The DPP leader added, "They should stop trying to outwit or deceive others," and "Parties should honor good faith in inter-party dealings."

*Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the Democratic Party for the People (©Sankei by Hideyuki Matsui).*

That said, Tamaki himself had been two-tracking, meeting Takaichi while also attending the three-party opposition leaders' session. "Two-faced" or not, he was clearly weighing both sides.

Komeito on the Back Foot

Tamaki's moves also buffeted Saito, and senior figures in Komeito's support base, Soka Gakkai. Komeito had been weighing partial pullouts from single-seat districts. However, an LDP–Ishin tie-up would make even Hyogo Prefecture, where Komeito won two seats, hard to defend. The party could be driven toward a full retreat from single-seat races and a shift to proportional-only.

After meeting Komeito, the ever-competitive Azumi pointed to a potential CDP–DPP–Komeito alignment. "It's still hazy, but I can see another axis taking shape," he said. The pitch was deliberately vague, more trial balloon than blueprint.

(Read the article in Japanese.)

Author: Takashi Arimoto, The Sankei Shimbun