How to Leverage Trump's Tariffs Into a Win-Win for Japan's National Interest

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United States President Donald Trump's tariffs are alienating longtime allies — Europe, Canada, and even ASEAN members. Sensing an opening, Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to visit Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia in April. His strategy of drawing nations into China's orbit now extends to Japan and South Korea as well. This is a troubling shift — and precisely why Japan must reinforce its national foundations now.

Yet Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has shown a conspicuous lack of both action and strategy in responding to Trump's tariffs. When reciprocal tariffs were announced, he met with opposition leaders on April 4, including the Communist Party. What meaningful insight does he expect to gain from the Communists? Fumio Kishida, former prime minister and the architect of Ishiba's rise to power, delivered a scathing critique: "There's no sign of any effort or action from the prime minister. Simply accepting the tariffs and saying we'll support small and medium-sized enterprises is pathetic."

Trump insists, "My policies will never change." Regardless of the damage inflicted on the global economy, for now, no one can stop him. The tariff war will likely continue until his political base feels directly threatened. Japan, too, must act swiftly and boldly to safeguard its national future. And the first clue lies in Trump's speech on April 2.

Clues from Trump's Deal with Abe

Midway through his Rose Garden address, Trump made an unexpected reference to the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. He mourned Abe's untimely death, speaking with heartfelt affection and deep respect. Recalling their negotiations over the Japan-US trade agreement, he said, "[We] worked out a deal, and it would have been a much better deal."

*US President Donald Trump shakes hands with then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in June 2019. (©Sankei file photo)*

This legacy is Japan's unique advantage. While Ishiba and others may underestimate its value, we must not let this irreplaceable inheritance go to waste.

In his first term in 2018, President Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on Japanese automobiles. Rather than responding defensively, Abe addressed the proposal calmly. He reframed it as part of a broader US economic concern and proposed a practical solution. At the time, Trump had imposed tariffs on China, which retaliated by restricting imports of US soybeans and beef — just as we're seeing now.

Abe responded by lowering tariffs on agricultural and livestock products, boosting imports of American goods. In return, Trump withdrew the 25% auto tariff. The two leaders agreed that as long as the trade deal remained in place, the US would not impose additional tariffs on Japanese automobiles or auto parts.

Rice on the Path Forward

This is precisely why Japan should begin by expressing appreciation for Trump's remarks about Abe. Then, in respect for Abe's intentions, Japan should state clearly: if Trump breaks the agreement, Japan will have no choice but to withdraw as well. We would be forced to restore beef tariffs. With next year's midterms approaching, Trump surely understands the importance of support from US livestock farmers.

Many — including former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi of the LDP — argue that Japan should present a bold initiative to President Trump. When it comes to Japan, the issues he has long fixated on are automobiles and rice. As noted above, we've already addressed the auto issue. That leaves rice.

*Harvesting the new rice crop in Tako Town, Chiba Prefecture, in 2024. (©Sankei by Masahiro Sakai)*

This is where Japan now has an opportunity to offer a bold, transformative proposal. Trump has claimed Japan's rice tariffs are as high as 700%. While the actual figure is closer to 200%, this may be the moment to propose eliminating rice tariffs altogether.

At the same time, Japan must abolish the acreage reduction policy — not just on paper, but in practice. This outdated system has long been the root cause of the rice industry's decline. Instead, the government should redirect subsidies to support full-time farmers, who are expected to become the backbone of Japan's future rice production.

A Win-Win Opportunity

PM Ishiba, who once served as Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries under the Aso administration, previously expressed interest in reforming the acreage reduction program. Although the proposal was ultimately left out of the LDP's basic policy plan, Ishiba is now in a position to act. If a bold shift in rice policy can help lift Japan out of its current difficulties, there's no reason not to act now.

Eliminating tariffs would open the market to cheaper foreign rice. Domestic prices would fall, supply shortages would ease, and consumers would benefit.

To support domestic farmers affected by falling prices, the government could offer targeted subsidies — just as many other countries do. However, the current subsidy system needs fundamental reform. For years, under the acreage reduction program, the government has spent ¥350 billion JPY annually ($2.4 billion USD) subsidizing farmers for not growing rice. This backward use of public funds must end.

Instead, subsidies should go to large-scale, full-time farmers — the ones expected to lead the future of Japan's rice industry. It should allow them to grow as much delicious rice as they wish.

The required budget would be about ¥150 billion ($1 billion). According to Kazuhito Yamashita, Research Director at the Canon Institute for Global Studies, this would result in annual savings of ¥200 billion ($1.4 billion) compared to current acreage reduction spending.

And there's an added bonus: Japan's food self-sufficiency rate would rise from the current 38% to 70%. By leveraging pressure from the Trump administration to completely overhaul its distorted rice policy, Japan could achieve a rare win-win — benefiting not only itself, but also the US, farmers, consumers, and national food security.

*Japanese destroyer Kaga with American and French aircraft carriers east of the Philippines on February 12, 2025. (©Japan MSDF)*

A Bold Vision to Meet Trump on Security

Trump has also voiced his dissatisfaction on sharing the defense burden of the international community. He claims that while the US has long borne that burden, "when you want to cut back a little bit, they get upset that you're not taking care of them any longer," he said on April 2.

Here too, Japan has a chance to present a bold vision. The Kishida administration approved three key security documents, including the National Security Strategy, and pledged to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP. But that is no longer enough. Now is the time to clearly signal a review of the strategy—and a further increase in defense spending to build a stronger Japan.

Three years have passed since the strategy was adopted, and a revision should already be in progress. Yet Ishiba is blocking it. A meaningful update would require stronger defense capabilities and, by extension, higher spending — likely reigniting debate over tax increases.

Such a debate could damage the ruling party in the Tokyo assembly election in June and the Upper House race this summer. Worried about the political fallout, the Ishiba-led Prime Minister's Office has been working to suppress any discussion of a revision.

The prime minister's foremost duty is to protect the lives of Japan's citizens and defend the nation from its greatest threat: China. Blocking a national security review — just to avoid taking a political hit? Surely Ishiba doesn't believe elections and politics exist solely for his own gain. Or does he?

Rice and defense. Only by proposing bold plans in both — and by demonstrating the resolve to turn Trump's pressure into leverage for the national interest — can Japan weather the coming tariff storm.