International Support for Bangladesh Depends on a Stable Government

The interim leader of Bangladesh, Dr Muhammad Yunus, says his first priority is to make his people feel safe again.

He is acutely aware of the urgent need to restore security in the South Asian nation, following a revolution in which hundreds of lives have been lost.

Along with the bloodshed, there have been looting and arson attacks. The police went on strike. Vigilante gangs are patrolling the streets, conducting unofficial "arrests." 

This has created an atmosphere of fear. Recent events have crippled international trade. But my contacts in Dhaka assure me that violence has subsided and the the worst seems to be over.

I am pleased that the fires are petering out. But I wonder how Bangladesh can seek to regain the trust of countries that it regards as partners, including Japan. 

Bangladesh has made impressive socio-economic progress in recent years. It has not achieved this alone: the help of other nations has been essential. Since Bangladesh's independence in 1972, Japan has been its number one bilateral development partner. 

But in my view, no foreign government or business can be expected to provide financial help to a country that is in a state of political chaos or is in the throes of extremism.

Meeting Muhammad Yunus

I've been to Bangladesh a number of times. On one occasion, I interviewed Dr Muhammad Yunus. That was long before he entered politics.

At that time, he was a university professor and banker with a passion for the poor. I was impressed by his pioneering work in providing micro-credit to small businesses, especially enterprises run by women.

Since then, Dr Yunas has gone on to win the Nobel Prize for economics. His work has been lauded internationally. He strikes me as a wise and selfless person. I expect him to be a good influence on his country and will do his best to foster good relations with other nations.

However, it would be wrong to overstate his influence. To call Dr Yunas an "interim leader" is somewhat misleading. He has accepted the position of advisor, yet at this stage, it is not really clear what kind of government he will advise. Dr Yunus himself has admitted he has inherited a "complete mess." 

Politicians loyal to the ousted prime minister, Sheik Hasina have been hounded from office. That has created a power vacuum. The Bangladesh National Party (BNP) led by former PM Khaleda Zia, who has now been released from house arrest, is a formidable political force.

In the past, the BNP has governed in coalition with Jamaat-e-Islami. It is an Islamic organization whose members have been known to espouse anti-western views.

This will worry Japan, which has been the target of extremists in Bangladesh, with terrible consequences.

Bakery Massacre

Islamists belonging to a group called Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) murdered seven Japanese people in Dhaka in 2016.

Nine Italians, an American and an Indian were also killed in the attack on the Holey Artisan cafe, which was popular with foreigners. 

The Japanese victims — five men and two women — were associated with JICA, the government agency that had been tasked with trying to help Bangladesh.

Seven terrorists behind the attack were later tried and put to death.

It took a long time for foreigners to feel safe in Bangladesh following that horrific incident. It still serves as a reminder that foreigners should not take risks there until law and order are reestablished.

That may take time. There is also a possibility that the military could cling to power in a de facto coup d'etat, or even that Islamist factions could seize the government.

Student Revolt

Military generals were not the instigators of this summer's revolution, nor were the opposition politicians from the BNP.

It was students who were at the vanguard of the protests. Their primary gripe was that an authoritarian leader had rigged the jobs market in favor of her cronies.

The students wanted a fairer system. They probably didn't realize that their campaign would gain momentum nationwide and end up with the Prime Minister fleeing the country in a helicopter, while her palace was looted.

So should the students lead the country? Even if that seems like a just outcome and a manifestation of people power, the students do not have a political party to represent them. Dr Yunas has mooted the idea that they could create one. That will not be easy.

Bangladesh is a young country. Democracy has not grown deep roots. It is now entering a period of major uncertainty.

I recognize that Japan has provided support for many valuable projects over the years. Japan is a popular country in Bangladesh and avoids meddling in politics.

But for the time being, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Tokyo and agencies such as JICA need to be cautious. My hope is that we will eventually see suitable conditions for constructive engagement. I wish Dr Yunas well as he takes on the greatest struggle of his career. 

RELATED:

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Author: Duncan Bartlett, Diplomatic Correspondent
Mr Bartlett is the Diplomatic Correspondent for JAPAN Forward and a Research Associate at the SOAS China Institute. Read his other articles and essays.