INTERVIEW: Bill Emmott on Japan's Role in Regional Security and Managing Global Risks

Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of the British magazine The Economist, makes no secret of his fondness for Japan. On July 23 during a visit to Japan, he sat down for an interview with The Sankei Shimbun and JAPAN Forward to discuss the political and security environment surrounding Japan. 

Emmott highly praised the Cabinet's decision to increase defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product (GDP). He pointed out the importance of Japan's defense capabilities in deterring conflict in Asia. In addition, he stated that the amendment of Article 9 of the Constitution should be expedited. He urged the government to make constitutional reform a priority and to address the issue "over the next five years."

Emmott's visit to Japan also coincides with the Japanese language publication of his new book, How to Stop World War III: The Risk of a Taiwan Emergency and Japan's Role. (Fusosha, 2024.) The English title is Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Risk of Conflict Over Taiwan, by Bill Emmott (Routledge, 2024.)

Excerpts Follow.

Impact of Who Wins the US Election

Tell me about the American Election. Who will win?

It is an unusual election for America. Personally, until July 21, I would have said that Trump had a 60% chance of winning, and a 40 % chance for Joe Biden. Now, my guess is that its 60% for Harris, 40% Trump. Suddenly, Joe] Biden withdrew. Now, one candidate is well-known, [Donald] Trump, and the other is not so well-known Kamala Harris. As Difficult as this election is, she has some advantages. She is young and new, would be the first female president if she wins, and the first Asian woman. She symbolizes "new" and "young."

But the problem is that she belongs to the current administration. She does not symbolize a change, because she is part of the Biden administration. That's why it is difficult to judge. 

[Trump's] battle is to force the election into one of Strong versus Weak. [Harris's] battle will be to make the election New versus Old. 

Either way, we will see a change in the American president. What will change in Asian policy?

If Kamala Harris becomes president, there will be a lot of continuity in American politics toward Asia. The Biden policy called for strengthening relationships with allies, especially Japan, the Philippines, Australia, and South Korea. In the case of Harris, there will be strong continuity in Asia. 

Of course, in the case of Trump, the policy will be more unpredictable. His attitude toward Taiwan, specifically, and the way he deals with China. However, there will be still continuity because the policy toward China and relationships with allies can be traced back to [Barak] Obama, as I write in my book.

What about Mr Trump's position on Taiwan? 

He gave an interview to Bloomberg [in June] in which he accused Taiwan of dealing with semiconductor business with the United States in a way damaging to the American economy. And he went on to say that "Taiwan should be paying for America for its defense." I do think he is transactional even with Taiwan. 

He will be a bit transactional with Japan. He's always been a hard negotiator on the cost of the status of forces agreement, both with Japan and South Korea. But Japan has increased its defense spending so strongly and already bought so many Tomahawk [missiles], and it pays the cost of American bases in Japan. These bases are so crucial for Americans. 

Therefore, there are more opportunities for dealmaking with Taiwan and South Korea.

What other issues should Japan be concerned about?

More important for Japan, outside [security] issues, is trade. [Trump] says that he will impose 10% [tariffs] on goods coming from all other countries. Then, [he says he will] raise the tariff on Chinese goods to 60%. 

The 10% tariff is new. That is important for Japan, as the US is a big market. If he goes ahead with it, then Japan, the European Union, and the United Kingdom will have to decide how to respond. 

Mr Abe had good relations with Trump during his first administration. How could that play out now?

My first question is, who will be Japan's prime minister in November? The possibility of a Trump win in the [US] November election could affect the Liberal Democratic Party potentially. If I was a candidate I would say, "I can make better relations with Trump than Kishida." Motegi would say so. Many will claim this. 

International Security Priorities

What about AUKUS and the Quad?

AUKUS [Australia, United Kingdom and the US] will be more vulnerable than the Quad [Australia, Japan, India and the US]. AUKUS is about money, technology, and ship-building capacity. A strong hawkish Republican party will be dominant in a Trump administration and want to build up American defense more rapidly. They will particularly prioritize submarines. In their point of view, Australia's contribution to deterrence with China is not so significant, because it is too far away. 

The dominant thinking of the Republican Party is that you need to build up defense capability in the area close to China. That means Japan, especially, and also ideally the Philippines, Taiwan, and South Korea. And American submarines will be able to [patrol] constantly in the South China Sea or East China Sea, in their point of view.

Strengthening the mutual defense treaties started in the first Trump Administration. But AUKUS is a Biden project and distraction. Meanwhile, the Quad costs very little. [Prime Minister Narendra] Modi of India is willing to participate in the security arrangement. Modi is also an authoritarian leader so there is natural chemistry between them. It is important for Trump. 

So they will continue Quad. But AUKUS is a "no." NATO and Ukraine will [also] be vulnerable.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently talked with Trump. What was that about? 

I do not know. Between now and [the start of the next administration], Ukraine will receive 70 F16s. Russia will take back territory. Ukraine will mobilize more people. So things are moving in Ukraine again. 

Of course, Europeans also need to build up their defense. The problem in Europe is that key governments, France and Germany, are so weak. Germany will have an election and a strong right-wing government will be elected. Maybe it will provide more confidence for them.

Risk of a Taiwan Emergency

Can a Third World War be prevented?

The danger will increase if there is a new Trump administration. He is unpredictable about Taiwan. His unpredictability risks leading the Chinese to draw perhaps wrong conclusions. 

Biden said four times that America will intervene militarily for Taiwan. Maybe Trump thinks that is impossible. Therefore Xi Jinping and the People's Liberation Army could decide that now is the time to try [to take Taiwan]. 

If [America] loses Taiwan, if they lose control of the Western Pacific, they would lose military influence in the Indo-Pacific as a whole. 

Why doesn't the Republican Party let Trump say 'I will intervene militarily in Taiwan?' Isn't it the cheapest way to deter China?          

Yes, I agree. [But] he is not yet president. If I were one of his advisors, I would say "You must find an opportunity early in your presidency, to make it clear that you will intervene. Because it is the cheapest way" to [prevent a] world war. That is the message of [my new] book. 

Deterrence and Constitutional Reform

We have to prepare for an unpredictable future. What Japan should do?

I do think Japan is following a sensible policy. [It has been] building up its defense quite dramatically. At the same time, it has also improved its diplomatic relationships with other countries in the region. Especially in Southeast Asia [and also with] Indonesia, Philippines, and Malaysia. They are so important in a regional crisis if America is not so influential. 

Second, a key question for Japan is the credibility of its defense buildup. People are leaving the Self-Defense Forces. [It is difficult to] recruit people for intelligence work. We see the problems of building up a cybersecurity force. A key task for the Japanese government will be to prioritize these.

I think constitutional reform is very important, too. If there is a weakness in Japan's contribution to deterrence, it is under the constitution's legal restraints. So I think the revision of Article 9 should be prioritized to clarify the legal situation. I do think that it is important [to get that done] in the next five years. 

Would even the Europeans support constitutional revision?

Even Europeans, I do not say all, but I think the balance of opinion is going in this direction. The sense is that we are in a common situation and share a common endeavor.

On His New Book

What is your message to Japanese readers of your new book?           

Good question. My message is "You can be optimistic about the prospect of maintaining peace as long as we work together to build up defense capabilities in a serious manner. And through that effort, build relationships with one another. China can be deterred from its action over Taiwan, the South China Sea, and other matters." 

My message to Japanese leaders is that Japan has a very critical role in this effort. 

RELATED:

• INTERVIEW | In a New Trump Administration, What a US-China Policy Might Look Like
• A Message to the Next American President From Japan
• Duped by Russia: France Falls Into Uneasy Diplomacy with China
• Why is China's Hold on Europe so Strong?
  
  

(Read the related article in Japanese.)

Interview by: Mina Mitsui