INTERVIEW | Imagining a New Trump Administration: Japan as 'Independent' and 'Resilient' Ally

In November America will elect a candidate to fill the 47th term of President of the United States. Currently, the election is expected to feature former US President Donald Trump as the Republican candidate. The likely Democratic candidate is the incumbent, President Joe Biden. Both parties hold national conventions, in July and August, respectively, where their final selections will be made.

On June 6, The Sankei Shimbun and JAPAN Forward sat down with former Trump administration presidential advisors Fred Fleitz and Steve Yates to discuss foreign policy and what Japan might expect if Mr Trump wins. 

Fred Fleitz is Vice Chair of the America First Policy Institute's Center for American Security. His colleague, Steve Yates, is now a Senior Fellow and Chair of the China Policy Initiative at AFPI. Both experienced White House advisors emphasized that the Trump team put importance on constructing stronger, more independent and cooperative partnerships with US allies and partners. That type of relationship, they explained, would establish more effective deterrence against American adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran. 

In part one of this two-part series, Mr Fleitz, who was also Deputy National Security Advisor in the first Trump administration, discusses what we might expect from Donald Trump's approach to global security issues. Then in part two, we hear from Mr Yates on policy toward China and the region.

Excerpts from the interview with Mr Fleitz follow.

On Overall Approach to Foreign Policy

From the perspective of AFPI, what would US Foreign policy look like if former President Trump wins the White House again?

Mr Fleitz: The AFPI was formed in 2021 by a group of former Trump senior officials. It's now about 200 people. And we work on all kinds of issues, both domestic and foreign. But we have a pretty aggressive program on US foreign policy.

We are looking at how to have a much tougher approach to China. But we [also] have to have tougher approaches across the board [...] to establish American deterrence to keep US adversaries at bay. And not just China, but also Russia and Iran.

[Expect] some fairly aggressive diplomacy by Trump to quickly end the war in Ukraine. And that's related to the China issue for Japan. We think it's essential to stop this axis between China and Russia, incorporate Russia back as a European power, and stop the current international system from becoming a China-led system. The war in Ukraine is helping China move in that direction.

There has been much concern about the 'fairness' issue affecting allies' contributions to defense. 

Mr Fleitz: ["Fairness"] does mean that we work closely with our allies. We [also] make members of alliances pay their fair share. 

I think Mr Trump is going to focus on France and Germany for not paying their 2% of their GDP for NATO, and for paying way less than they should to arm Ukraine in the war against Russia. Mr Trump is pretty serious about fairness. It is not fair that [the US} give a disproportionate amount of weapons to arm Ukraine and the French and Germans aren't doing that. 

Japan's Defense Capabilities

Although Japan is making every effort to increase its defense capabilities, some say that there is still much work to be done.

Mr Fleitz: I'm very pleased to hear Japanese officials and diplomats and American officials say that the US-Japanese relationship has never been stronger. I like to hear that. I think it never had been stronger when Trump and Abe were close friends. So I'm happy they're saying that because this is a very crucial relationship between the United States and Japan. It's crucial for global and international security. 

There is no way to stand up to China without this strong security relationship. [Although] I have criticisms of the Biden administration, I give them a lot of credit for promoting the trilateral relationship between the US, Japan, and South Korea. 

A lot of credit has to go to the Japanese Prime Minister and the South Korean President for their heroic efforts to move forward to move beyond historic differences because the threat of China is so severe. And I know that was difficult for both countries. This was something that they decided to do in the trips that both men made to the other country to try to demonstrate their willingness to engage in dialogue and to concentrate on the real threat. Is the threat China or is the threat arguing about World War II? 

Clearly the threat from China's not going away. And China just delights when it sees the US, and South Korea and Japan bickering.

Do you think a strong Japan will contribute to peace and stability in this region?

Mr Fleitz: I'd like to see Japan be as strong as possible. I know there are restrictions in Japan's constitution for doing that, but I think there have been some creative ways for Japan to defend itself and to stand with its allies in the region. I hope that continues because this relationship is crucial for regional and global security. 

Nuclear Deterrence

We see China building their nuclear arsenal. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida promotes the Nonproliferation Treaty framework. 

Mr Fleitz: It is a concern that there has been a significant increase in China's nuclear arsenal in recent years, as well as long-range missiles to deliver those weapons. Exactly how many weapons the Chinese have is unknown because they're so protective. 

The US would like to include China in an intermediate nuclear forces agreement or a renegotiation of the START agreement with Russia. China has never agreed to do that. And it is a significant issue. Now, China's nuclear arsenal is a lot smaller than Russia's, but it is modern and it's growing. We're [probably] looking at hundreds, maybe a thousand weapons by the end of this decade. 

I think it's going to be a focus of a new Trump administration to press China to join treaties to control nuclear proliferation. China should be part of a renegotiated New START treaty. 

China and the US also have differences on broader trade and economic issues.

Mr Fleitz: [If elected,] Trump's policy on China is going to be very tough on trade. It's going to be a very tough language calling for accountability for China being the origin of the coronavirus and how it hasn't been held accountable. Trump has never forgotten that. 

At the same time, I think Trump will engage in transactional diplomacy. The idea is that we have to be tough with our enemies, but we also have to talk to them. 

That talk will include pressing President Xi Jinping to discuss how we get China involved as a party to some type of new nuclear agreement with Russia and with the United States to limit the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Because if China keeps building up its arsenal, they're going to encourage other states to do so. 

I'm hoping with enhanced diplomacy and dialogue, we can maybe make some progress in pressing the Chinese government to consider this. 

The North Korean Abductions of Japanese Citizens

The abductees issue was always on the table every time President Trump had a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. It should be solved by the Japanese government and North Koreans. But the fact is that Japan needs some help and understanding from its ally and partner countries. Do you think Mr Trump still remembers the abductees issue?

Mr Fleitz: I do, and I think he's the first President who was so outspoken about the abductions issue. I've met with the families of young men and women who were abducted, kidnapped by North Korea. It's a serious issue. President Trump took it very seriously. And I think he'll continue to do so if he's reelected.

On American Support for Trump

Can you explain some reasons why half of the American population seems to support Mr Trump?

Mr Fleitz: In many ways, it's a backlash among Americans [who] believe that US leaders have not considered the interests of the American people when making important foreign policy decisions. The US worker has to be considered first before we sign a trade agreement and send troops abroad and sign treaties. 

I would add that there's a real perception among a large number of Americans that they were better off when Trump left office. And this certainly goes for domestic issues. 

Our southern border hasn't been secure. There's been millions of illegal aliens coming into our country, something Japan would never tolerate. And some of them are terrorists, some of them are criminals, some are drug dealers. It's a real issue. There's been an increase in crime, and there's been an increase in inflation. 

Is the [New York] court decision against Mr Trump affecting the election campaign? What are voters' reactions?

Mr Fleitz: A large number of Americans believe that the court case was a misuse of justice, a weaponization of our justice system. That's why donations to Trump have soared since the verdict. There are moderate Democrats, Republicans, and Independents who are coming to Trump because they believe that this was a case that never would have been brought against anyone whose name wasn't Trump. And the fact that it was not brought until the election year looks very bad. 

So we think this has probably strengthened Trump's chances to win. 

Continues in Part 2 with the interview of former Trump advisor Steve Yates.

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(Read the related report in Japanese.)

Author: Mizuki Okada