Dr Ken Weinstein in his office at the Hudson Institute. (©JAPAN Forward)
"The security environment isn't like it was 10 years ago. We know where the threat is coming from. We know the magnitude of the threat," says Dr Ken Weinstein. He had just returned from a whirlwind trip to Seoul and Tokyo when we caught him on September 10. Earlier that morning, he had hosted "Insights from Okinawa: Governor Denny Tamaki on Building a Sustainable US-Japan Relationship."
With Okinawa very much on his mind, Dr Weinstein sat down with The Sankei Shimbun and JAPAN Forward at Hudson Institute in Washington, DC that afternoon. About ten days earlier, he had also spoken with Yonaguni Island (Okinawa) Mayor Kenichi Itokazu during his visit to Washington.
In this last part of his interview, Dr Weinstein focuses on Okinawa. His comments address the good and the bad in United States relations with Japan's westernmost prefecture. In particular, he discusses what might be done to improve relations and maintain the Japan-US deterrent posture in the region.
Excerpts follow.
Last part
Tip of the Spear
What can new American and Japanese leaders do to improve relationships with Okinawa?
The election results in Okinawa, whether it be for the prefectural assembly, or the most recent mayoral race in Okinawa on the weekend of September 8, show that the "All-Okinawa Party" [Governor Denny Tamaki's party] doesn't have a lock on public opinion in Okinawa.
Moreover, there is a broader recognition of the security threat the People's Republic of China poses. That is not just to Japan overall but to Okinawa in particular.
Therefore, I hope that by engaging Governor Tamaki and engaging public opinion in Okinawa, we can begin to see [relations] change. We can look for a transformation of the hard-line regarding the United States that we see out of some quarters in Okinawa.
Also, we are definitely seeing a shift in the [previously] friendly [public] attitude towards the People's Republic of China.
Is there much more to be done?
There's a lot of work that has to be done on the US side, on the Japanese side, and the Okinawa side as well.
Meanwhile, the Okinawan government should not be viewed as the equivalent of either the US government or the Japanese government in these discussions. [Despite that] they would like to be considered as such.
What steps can the Japanese government and the US take to help improve public opinion?
The commander of US forces, Lt General Ricky N Rupp issued a statement not too long ago. He was talking about the need for better coordinating mechanisms [with Okinawa] and for reaching out. And I might be misstating that, better coordinating mechanisms. That's my word, not his.
But the point is that the US government, the Japanese government, and the Okinawan government need to figure out a better way to engage each other. And they also need to engage the broader public in Okinawa on the issues.
'Baskets' of Issues
Does 'engagement' include base issues?
There are issues in several baskets. There's the noise basket.
[However, it also] includes the horrific crimes allegedly committed by US servicemen. These crimes are a direct threat to the US-Japan alliance. They undermine everything that all of us who believe in the alliance work on on a daily basis, and they are horrific.
It is very dark days for every ambassador who has to deal with these challenges, [including] going down to Okinawa, as Tom Schieffer did, right after one of these incidents to apologize to the people of Okinawa. It's just profoundly depressing.
Are there also other types of issues?
There are also tragic accidents. Accidents are going to occur. But the more training we do, the more our forces become equipped to avoid [accidents], the fewer there will be.
The noise problem will be reduced over time, as we move towards more automated systems with the drones, UAVs, USVs. [UAVs are unmanned aerial vehicles. USVs are unmanned surface vehicles.] I'm talking a decade from now. Some of these noise concerns will be somewhat abated as we increase the presence of automation and smaller equipment in our US forces in Japan.
Japan also [will be] moving towards greater unmanned systems. That will mitigate some of those challenges [in Okinawa]. Not all of them, but these are smaller systems that don't make noise and are more flexible, certainly.
On Moving US Forces to Henoko
What about moving the Futenma Air Station to Henoko?
Well, it will certainly reduce the noise in the Futenma area. But I don't have an answer as to Henoko. However, I think there's no alternative to the Futenma replacement plan. And even over time, there can't be.
What can be done to respond to Okinawa's concerns?
We need to do more to engage public opinion on the China security threat and on the role of US forces. And also engage more on what the US forces add to the Okinawan economy.
While we do this, [we need to] recognize fully that Okinawa bears an undue burden for the security of Japan. It also does so for US force posture in the Indo-Pacific.
I was in Okinawa on a totally personal visit with my wife in May. It's striking how much of the island is [touched by] the significant presence of the US bases. It is dramatic and very visible, and it's definitely a burden for Okinawa.
Two Okinawas
In the beginning, you mentioned recent elections in Okinawa. Are those also relevant?
There are two Okinawas. [One is] the Okinawa mainland and Okinawa government, and [another is] the Nansei Shoto southwest islands. They have politician mayors, and their opinion is totally the opposite of the prefecture. In particular, Yonaguni.
Do you think public opinion from the Nansei Shoto can favorably influence public opinion on the main Okinawa island?
Look, the Yonaguni Islands are increasingly important to Japanese national security, to American national security. And to Taiwanese security. Also, it's no secret that the US has asked for Japan to build up its capabilities on Yonaguni Island.
We're very fortunate that the mayor [Itokazu] of Yonaguni came [to Washington.] He is a strong supporter of the US-Japan alliance. Also, he is someone who has done a lot of exchanges with the people of Taiwan over time. There are strong ties between Yonaguni and Taiwan, which are also very important.
Over time, I would hope that the islands of the Nansei Shoto have a much greater impact on the debate within Okinawa Prefecture itself. And I think they will because we're in a very different time and different security environment.
The security environment isn't like it was 10 years ago. We know where the threat is coming from. We know the magnitude of the threat.
Read Part 1: INTERVIEW | Hudson Institute's Ken Weinstein on Priorities in Security for Japan's Next Leader
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Interview by: Susan Komori for JAPAN Forward and Hiroo Watanabe, Washington Bureau Chief, The Sankei Shimbun
