The race for the next Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president is underway with voting on September 27. This election is unique in many ways. From the record number of candidates to the disbanded party factions, candidates who previously wouldn't have had a chance are now contenders. Moreover, the LDP is the majority party in the National Diet. Therefore, whoever is selected as the LDP leader will likely be confirmed prime minister.
On September 16, FNN-Sankei published its most recent public opinion poll showing the candidates' popularity. Shigeru Ishiba led the pack at 25.6%, followed by 43-year-old Shinjiro Koizumi with 21.9%.
Sanae Takaichi was third with 12.5%. Other candidates trailed, with single-digit popularity at 5% or less.
Should any of these top three candidates win, it would signal a big change for the party. Ishiba has a reputation as a lone wolf. Koizumi is very young, and Takaichi would be the first woman in the position.
The winner must collect a majority of votes. Those come from the LDP members of the Diet (367 votes) and an equal number representing the one million rank-and-file party members. How will candidates appeal to these groups?
To untangle this historic election we spoke with Mitsuru Sakai. He is The Sankei Shimbun's political editor at the newspaper's head office.
A Party Election of Many 'Firsts'
What is different about this LDP Election?
It's an election with a lot of unknowns. There are nine candidates, the highest number in history.
In addition, most party factions have been disbanded. In the past, votes would tend to converge around faction lines. The high number of candidates itself is a symbol of the factions' dissolution. Previously, only people who had consolidated consensus within factions would be allowed to run.
With these groups gone, it's harder to predict how the election will go. In addition, with so many candidates, we are still at the stage of understanding the ins and outs of each candidate's policy and dissecting them.
For example?
Toshimitsu Motegi proposes to avoid a tax hike to pay for the defense budget, a different position compared to PM Fumio Kishida. This came as a surprise as Motegi is LDP secretary-general, and would not be expected to differ with the government position.
Then, Shinjiro Koizumi proposed that couples can choose whether to keep their surname when marrying. The debate therefore moved in that direction.
All in all, there is quite a lot of chaos in the policy debates. I envision that feeling will continue for the next few weeks.
The Top Contenders
Who are you expecting to win?
Just looking at the polls, several candidates are unlikely to win, barring a surge in popularity.
We have narrowed down the three expected top candidates: Shinjiro Koizumi, Shigeru Ishiba, and Sanae Takaichi. The two who get the most votes on September 27 will then likely fight it out in a second round of voting.
What are the polls saying?
All major news media polls place Koizumi, Ishiba and Takaichi in the top three. Depending on the poll, Koizumi and Ishiba are either first or second, while Takaichi tends to be third.
Our reporters have also been asking the 367 Diet members their intention to vote. Among them, 200 or so say they have decided. Even looking at this data, our predictions are similar to that of polls.
Are the polls an accurate estimate of the rank-and-file members' views?
It's not an exact scientific correlation, but it's a good estimate.
There are also different kinds of polls measuring the overall public's opinion. However, we've noticed that regardless of respondents' political affiliation, the preferences for candidates seem consistent across the population.
In the past, looking at polls has been a pretty accurate predictor of how the votes will go among rank-and-file members.
Chances of Winning
Among the top contenders, who do you think is the most likely to win?
I think Koizumi has a strong chance due to his popularity. He might even have a small chance of winning more than half the votes in the first round.
Having said this, Ishiba is also quite popular. So is Takaichi, but a little less than the other two, I think.
What makes a candidate popular among fellow LDP Diet Members?
The personality of each candidate becomes quite important. It's often said that Ishiba likes political debate, but isn't good at making allies.
Takaichi is similar. She ran in the last LDP elections [2021] and lost. Since then, she has failed to build alliances, something she has admitted publicly.
Koizumi's more active than the other two. Therefore, if we sum up the vote of rank-and-file and LDP diet members Koizumi is at the top.
Ultimately, we will have to see if he can hold his nerve until the end of campaigning, as I've noticed that his policy explanations are insufficient.
Faction Politics
Are factions still informing the consensus building within the party?
There are still remnants of the old dynamics. Candidates still appeal for votes through their connections.
However, it was thanks to the absence of factions that so many people were able to run. But the ultimate consensus will likely be built through what remains of factions.
Do you think that factions will disappear?
I ultimately think factions will likely reappear in the future. They were dissolved more than twenty years ago, but they re-emerged. In addition, although most factions have been disbanded, the Aso faction remains, leading to a sort of halfway situation.
Many aren't aware that the current factions did not call themselves that to begin with. They defined themselves on the surface as "policy discussion groups." In practice, they were ways to gather consensus and wield power among other members of the LDP.
Therefore, as in the past, I think factions will likely emerge once again, although perhaps by a different name.
About Policy
How do you think that the future leader will position themselves towards foreign countries?
It's quite difficult to predict as none of the top three candidates has experience as a foreign minister.
Ishiba has experience as Minister of Agriculture and of Defense. Koizumi has experience as Environment Minister. Takaichi doesn't have a lot of experience negotiating abroad.
All three candidates have talked about strengthening the alliance with the United States and Japan's defense in the midst of the threats from China and preparing for a possible Taiwan contingency.
However, diplomacy is something that requires quite a lot of charisma and ability. On foreign affairs, Kishida was quite successful. He delivered a speech [in English] before the US Congress. And he was quick to respond to the threat in Ukraine.
The question is whether someone else can perform that way. It's arguably one of the hardest things to estimate at this point. However, the basics of the policies I believe will be the same, no matter who wins the election.
What are the key policies being debated?
Because the LDP is just one party, on major themes — such as economics, or diplomacy — there are few differences among the main candidates. By and large, there is a consensus to continue Kishida's agenda.
This means the debate veers towards other themes, where opinions diverge.
One such theme is the double surnames for married couples. Koizumi has firmly argued that married couples should have the choice of legally keeping their surname. [Currently, a household must choose one surname.]
Ishiba has expressed similar ideas. Among those most critical are Takaichi and [Takayuki] Kobayashi.
There is no data to prove this, but on the surname issue, it's often said that many LDP members and supporters are against the proposal. Therefore, there is a chance that this debate might work against Koizumi.
What about Constitutional Reform?
This is a topic where we've seen some interesting developments.
To give some background, the postwar Japanese constitution has never been revised since its ratification [during the Occupation]. The LDP was founded in 1955 precisely with the aim of revising that constitution.
The year 2025 marks the party's 70th anniversary, and little has been achieved on its original aim of constitutional revision.
In 2023, however, Kishida pushed this issue along. The debate progressed. In the midst of this, all nine candidates were aligned on constitutional revision.
It's quite rare that all candidates are so clear. In theory, whoever wins is saying they will push for constitutional revision.
Having said this, whether they will achieve it is another matter. It's not easy to amend the Constitution. Two-thirds of the National Diet needs to vote in favor. Then, a national referendum must approve it by a majority vote. None of this has ever happened. The next LDP leader will have to prove they are a skillful enough politician to move this debate along.
What about other national issues?
Another topic has been imperial line succession. Takaichi has shown the strongest support of keeping the male succession line, whereas Ishiba has argued for debating the possibility of a female succession line.
The 'Party Funding' Issue
Is the issue of factions and their party funding issue a key topic this time?
The LDP stance is that they have addressed the problem. Some punishments have been meted out, and a few people have been arrested and prosecuted.
However, outside the LDP many are saying that the party has not sufficiently taken responsibility for the problem.
Since the term of the Upper House expires in October 2025, a general election has to take place before then. Therefore, candidates are facing the dilemma of also having to keep in mind a wider general electorate.
Going Forward
What will you be looking for in the next few weeks?
Each candidate needs to provide evidence that they can get things done. I'll be looking for that.
What schedule can we expect in the coming weeks and months?
The candidates are all traveling around the country to appeal to voters based on their policies.
During this time, a lot of things could happen. It's a race to win, so a candidate might decide to go all in and risk it by changing their strategy.
Our role as political reporters is to look at the proposed policies and evaluate if they are realistic. This we will do until the day of the vote, on September 27.
What happens after that?
Currently, a new cabinet is expected to start on October 1. For example, should Koizumi become LDP leader and then PM, he has said he will dissolve the National Diet and call an election soon after.
No matter the winner, we reasonably expect a dissolution of the Diet between October and November, or at the latest in December. After that, there will be a general election. If there is a general election, I think it's likely the LDP will win.
Also, the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party is just about to elect its leader. In other words, a general election might take place at about the same time as the US presidential election.
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Author: Arielle Busetto
