INTERVIEW | Unmasking North Korea with Dr Kim Yeoul-soo

Tensions are once again high on the Korean Peninsula. On October 11, North Korea accused the South Korean military of sending unmanned drones over Pyongyang on three separate occasions earlier in the month. These drones allegedly carried and disseminated a large number of anti-regime leaflets throughout the capital.

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff have categorically denied Pyongyang's allegations. However, with both sides raising alerts, the incident has heightened tensions along the Peninsula's heavily militarized border. Just days later, North Korea elevated hostilities by blowing up symbolic roads and rail lines connecting the two Koreas.

In another significant move, North Korea recently dispatched thousands of troops to Russia to aid its military objectives in Ukraine. Reports indicate that the first batch of North Korean soldiers may have arrived at the frontlines. The total deployment could reach up to 12,000.

In an interview with JAPAN Forward, Dr Kim Yeoul-soo shared his insights on these ongoing developments. Dr Kim is a retired South Korean Army lieutenant colonel and senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs.

Excerpts follow.

Expanding Cooperation Between North Korea and Russia

Why is North Korea sending its troops to Russia?

I see largely three reasons: security, economic, and military. First, by deploying and potentially sacrificing his own men in Europe, Kim Jong Un aims to secure assurances from Moscow that the action will be reciprocated in the event of a crisis on the Korean Peninsula.

Second, North Korea will likely receive energy, food, and other economic benefits in exchange for its military support. For example, each North Korean soldier is expected to earn around $2,000 monthly. That is, assuming they get paid the same as foreign mercenaries. If the final troop count reaches 12,000, their combined wages could exceed $280 million annually. The Kim regime in Pyongyang is expected to pocket about 80 percent of the total earnings.

*Panmunjeom in the DMZ between North and South Korea (©Henrik Ishihara Globaljuggler via Wikimedia Commons)*

Third, Pyongyang hopes to gain access to Russia's advanced military technology and weapons. These include but are not limited to, S-300 and S-400 anti-ballistic missiles, nuclear submarines, military satellites, and ICBM reentry technology.

What are your thoughts on reports of North Korean soldiers being sent to the frontlines?

If they are being sent to the frontlines, it's mostly likely the Kursk area. The Ukrainian military launched an offensive in this region in August. They aimed to leverage it in future ceasefire negotiations as a barter for Donbas. However, Russia has since reclaimed about one-third of the territory. From Russia's perspective, retaking the remaining two-thirds is now its primary objective. North Korea's special forces will probably be deployed only after sapper [combat engineer] and support units assess the battlefield conditions.

Will the deployment help the Russian military strategically?

The Russian military's total casualties to date are estimated to be around or over 600,000. That is why Putin raised the military conscription age from 27 to 30. Some people suggest that the North Korean troops will be no more than "cannon fodder." However, in a war of attrition, I think this characterization is not entirely accurate.

There are certainly complications for the North Korean combatants. Notably, the open landscape of Ukraine differs significantly from the mountainous terrain of the Korean Peninsula. The current battle also resembles the trench warfare of World War I. With Ukraine's diverse array of military drones, even the most skilled North Korean soldiers may struggle to evade thermal detection on such an exposed battlefield.

*The counteroffensive of the Ukraine forces near Bakhmut in May 2023 (©Serhii Nuzhnenko, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty/the Collectionofwar.ukraine.ua)*

North Korean Soldiers in a Strange Land

There have been reports of defection by North Korean soldiers. What are your thoughts on this?

Organization is crucial in any military operation. In the current formation, it appears the North Korean army is not operating as a unified force. Rather, it is divided and integrated into Russian military divisions. They are wearing Russian uniforms, using Russian weapons, and learning basic Russian to navigate the language barrier.

This arrangement subjects the North Korean troops directly to Russian command. And the likelihood of desertion will increase if they are pushed to fight on the front lines. The temptation to desert would be even greater if Ukrainian psychological warfare agents distributed leaflets encouraging safe surrender.

That is why so-called execution squads were likely sent alongside the North Korean troops to monitor and prevent potential desertion.

If you ask me, this whole situation is totally absurd. Had North Korea taken a formal process, these soldiers would have been recruited with dignity, celebrated, and served with pride. Instead, the servicemen are treated no better than foreign mercenaries.

How will South Korea respond?

The South Korean government has announced that its response will be measured. In other words, it would vary based on North Korea's troop deployment, its mission in Ukraine, and any further military reinforcements or weapons procurement. South Korea will also closely monitor the types of weapons and technology Russia transfers to North Korea.

In terms of military response, South Korea could supply defensive weapons to Ukraine. For example, counter-drone systems or KM-SAM I & II. Offensive weapons like the K9 Thunder, K2 battle tank, or short-range ballistic missiles might be considered for transfer only if the North Korea-Russia military alliance further deepens.