INTERVIEW | What Happened in South Korea with Katsuhiro Kuroda

When President Yoon Suk-yeol placed South Korea under short-lived martial law in December 2024, Katsuhiro Kuroda watched the chaos unfold from his home. The award-winning journalist and former Seoul bureau chief of The Sankei Shimbun has observed South Korean politics over four decades. In an exclusive interview with JAPAN Forward, he shares his perspective

Having covered former President Chun Doo-hwan's post-coup extended martial law in 1980, Kuroda sensed something markedly different this time. "I was utterly baffled," he said. "Martial law is usually a response to widespread unrest, but there was nothing of the sort."

"Some actually mistook President Yoon's declaration as a warning of an imminent North Korean attack."

In a televised address on December 3, Yoon defended his decree as a necessary measure to eradicate "anti-state and pro-North Korean forces." He claimed they were jeopardizing the nation's freedom and security but did not specify who these forces were.

"The million-dollar question is why pursue an act seemingly destined to fail," Kuroda asked rhetorically. "Could it have been stress, a mere political misjudgment, or perhaps a cognitive issue?"

The Preceding Impasse

In the lead-up to the martial law declaration, tension between the main opposition Democratic Party and the executive branch reached a boiling point. For months, the opposition-dominated legislature pushed through bills that posed challenges for Yoon, only for the president to repeatedly exercise his veto power.

*South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung holds a press conference at the National Assembly in Seoul on December15 (©Kyodo)*

Some suggest that Yoon sought to break through this political impasse with a shock-and-awe political maneuver.

But such gridlock, Kuroda said, could never have been solved through military intervention. Even for a journalist with four decades of observing South Korean politics, Yoon's aberrant gambit was perplexing.

Another theory gaining traction argues that Yoon acted to protect his wife, the First Lady. There had been increasing calls for a special counsel probe into her alleged scandals. This view was further bolstered when the chief editor of Chosun Ilbo, South Korea's leading conservative newspaper, lent credence to it in a recent column.

A Veteran Reporter's Perspective

Kuroda, however, sees it slightly differently. While acknowledging that the "First Lady risk" was deeply personal to the president, he said that Yoon, a seasoned prosecutor, would have been astute enough to recognize that martial law would not achieve the desired outcome.

Instead, Kuroda speculates that the president may have grown increasingly apprehensive over the mounting scrutiny from opposition parties, civic groups, and left-leaning media, all "targeting the First Lady as a political scapegoat," potentially triggering the downfall of his reign.

One may never come to fully understand it. But setting aside the motives, Yoon's six-hour flirtation with authoritarianism has seemingly unleashed serious political repercussions.

Navigating the Aftermath

Yoon, impeached by parliament on December 14, now awaits a Constitutional Court ruling to determine his fate. If formally removed from office, an early presidential election will be held within 60 days. Under such a scenario, opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, who currently leads the polls, will likely assume the nation's highest office.

*Supporters of South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol gather near the presidential residence in Seoul on January 6th (©Kyodo)*

This spells trouble not only for the conservatives in South Korea but for neighboring Japan, explained Kuroda. A long-standing critic of Yoon's pro-Japan stance, Lee may, if elected, attempt to undermine or reverse the President's signature foreign policies. Yoon's ouster could also result in Tokyo losing its most reliable regional partner in decades.

Concern in Japan

In a recent poll conducted by Japanese Broadcaster NHK between December 6-8, 66% of respondents expressed being "very or somewhat concerned" about the impact of the disarray caused by Yoon's martial law declaration on Japan-South Korea relations.

While it's most ideal for Japan if Yoon remains in office, Kuroda expressed cautious optimism about the opposition leader. Despite Lee's long history as a vocal critic of the Japanese government, the journalist noted that his stance could change once he takes office.

"Lee Jae-myung tends to tailor his positions to suit his audience. But deep down, I think he has a pragmatic streak," Kuroda said.

The Roh Moo-hyun Precedent

To illustrate his point, Kuroda cited the example of Roh Moo-hyun's presidency (2003-08). Like Lee, Roh was a nationalistic, left-wing politician who initially flaunted openly anti-American views. However, midway through his term, Roh — as he later admitted himself — evolved into a pragmatist.

"One of the most striking examples of Roh's shift was when he signed a Free Trade Agreement with Washington, despite fierce opposition from his core base. And when he decided to deploy South Korean troops to support American efforts in Iraq," Kuroda said.

Roh's transformation, Kuroda added, was shaped by the shifting geopolitics of his time, and Lee could very well follow a similar trajectory. "That's where the Japanese, myself included, should place our bets should Yoon be ousted," he said.

Evaluating Alliances for the Next Election

When asked if the ruling People Power Party had a chance to recover from the latest turmoil, Kuroda argued it would depend on whether party members could embrace major change.

"One thing Yoon and his party often forget," Kuroda said, "is that Yoon won the last presidential election by a razor-thin margin."

"Figures like Ahn Cheol-soo and Lee Jun-seok, who garnered support from women, center-left and younger voters, were crucial to Yoon's victory," he continued. "But once in office, Yoon gradually sidelined them, and in turn, those voters turned their backs on the administration."

To have even a remote chance of winning the next presidential election, Kuroda said the ruling party must expand its base beyond traditional voting demographics.

He pointed out that while opposition parties control parliament, the mayors of South Korea's four largest cities — Seoul, Daegu, Incheon, and Busan — are from the ruling party. This, Kuroda said, should offer a ray of hope for Yoon's beleaguered party and serve as a foundation to build on.

Author: Kenji Yoshida