Yoshihisa Komori 
The Senkaku Islands (©Sankei by Kenji Suzuki）
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(Washington DC) Dr Toshi Yoshihara, former professor at the United States Naval War College and leading authority on Chinese maritime strategy, recently sat down for an interview with The Sankei Shimbun. In it, he noted that China has warned that it is preparing to declare joint management of the Senkaku Islands. Beijing plans to demonstrate it has established a "permanent presence" in the waters surrounding the islands and will thereby overtly reject Japan's administrative authority over them.
Beijing is considering sending Chinese maritime militia members disguised as fishermen to land on the Senkakus at the same time, Yoshihara revealed. This is intended to make it more difficult for the United States to intervene militarily under the Japan-US Security Treaty.
Yoshihara, a Japanese-American scholar, served as a senior research fellow at the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) of the US Naval War College for over 10 years. Currently, he is a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) in the US capital.
China Maneuvers Near the Senkakus
During the interview, Yoshihara referred to reports that armed vessels from the China Coast Guard (CCG) recently entered Japanese territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands for more than 92 hours. That is the longest period of time on record. He also mentioned other reports that CCG vessels had entered the surrounding contiguous zone (within 24 nautical miles) for 355 days in 2024.
China is attempting to demonstrate its permanent presence and control over the Senkaku Islands to the international community, Yoshihara concluded. "[If] China can demonstrate that it can be in those waters on a more or less permanent basis and Japan can't do anything about it, how can Japan actually in practice claim that it has administrative control of the waters?"
Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the command office for the East China Sea area of the CCG in Shanghai in November, 2023. According to Yoshihara's research, Xi issued an order to "strengthen sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands (the Chinese name for the Senkaku Islands)" there. Since then, the size and frequency of CCG incursions into waters around the Senkaku Islands have increased dramatically.
The official website of the CCG not only mentions these incursions, it seeks international recognition for its "permanent presence and patrols" around the Senkaku Islands.
As their immediate goal, the Chinese authorities are pursuing a strategy of officially declaring Chinese sovereignty and administrative rights over the Senkaku Islands. As part of that strategy China will for the time being settle for notifying Japan it intends to exercise joint control of the Senkaku Islands.
Role of China's Maritime Militia
The Japan-US Security Treaty obligates the US to joint defense in an armed attack on territory under Japanese administration. However, China's denial of Japan's administration over the Senkaku Islands could become an obstacle to joint defense of the Senkakus.
Yoshihara believes, "In order to gain effective control over the uninhabited Senkaku Islands, China is also planning an operation to land maritime militia units disguised as fishermen on the Senkakus."
The Chinese maritime militia is the smallest of maritime forces under the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). It might then be difficult to determine whether the Chinese incursion constitutes an "armed attack." That is a condition for activation of the joint defense pledged by the United States under the Japan-US Security Treaty. Yoshihara characterized this as a thorny issue for both Japan and the US.
Senkakus Central to Xi Strategy
Dr Yoshihara also pointed to parallel actions China has been taking while pushing its offensive against the Senkaku Islands. China has, for example, been tightening its grip on waters around Taiwan through military exercises and naval blockade simulations. It has similarly repelled Philippine resupply ships from reaching the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands, South China Sea.
He also emphasized that the seizure of the Senkaku Islands is integral to the Xi regime's ambitious maritime expansion strategy. Following are the key points Yoshihara made during the interview.
PRC Strategy to Claim Sovereignty
There has been a sharp increase in intrusions of Chinese naval vessels into waters around the Senkakus since President Xi Jinping ordered the China Coast Guard to strengthen the PRC's sovereignty over what it calls the Diaoyu Islands. In one instance, the CCG set a new record for its illegal presence by staying in Japanese territorial waters for more than 92 hours. It has also intruded upon the contiguous maritime zone around the Senkakus for 355 days in a single year.
China is attempting to deny Japanese administrative control of the area while demonstrating to the world that it has established a "permanent presence" in Senkaku waters. Beijing's plan next calls for China to declare its own sovereignty and administrative rights in the area. Then it will notify Japan it is exercising joint management of the Senkaku Islands.
Meanwhile, Beijing is also developing a strategy to have Chinese maritime militia members disguised as fishermen land on the Senkakus. Their purpose would be to occupy the islands to show effective control. Using the militia could make it difficult to determine whether such a move constituted an "armed attack" for activating joint defense under the Japan-US Security Treaty.
In order to escape the current danger, Japan could consider its own defensive measures. For example, it could station civil servants on the Senkaku Islands. Such a change to the status quo would likely elicit a strong reaction from China. However, unless Japan is prepared to deal with this issue decisively, the standoff will remain unresolved.
China's Maritime Expansion Strategy
At the same time as Beijing has escalated its Senkaku Islands "offensive," it has been pressuring Taiwan with military and maritime quarantine exercises. Meanwhile, the China Coast Guard has carried out large-scale offensives against Philippine government officials and civilians at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. These advances on three fronts are parts of China's large-scale maritime expansion strategy in the Pacific.
Beijing is devising methods that cannot be judged as pure military attacks against Taiwan — such as a naval blockade or fomenting domestic disruption on Taiwan — rather than a large-scale frontal landing operation. This approach could be especially challenging for the United States. Also behind Beijing's new aggressiveness is a major trend in which the military balance between the US and China is tilting in China's favor.
There has been a prevailing impression that the Trump Administration is prioritizing mediation in Ukraine and the Middle East. While it may not have made its policy toward the Indo-Pacific clear, the greatest threat to US interests remains China. Furthermore, the basic policy of the United States still is to direct maximum resources toward deterring China.
About Dr Yoshihara
Toshi Yoshihara is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, DC. He was born in 1972 and grew up in Taiwan. He received his master's degree from the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University. Yoshihara then earned his PhD from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. He has taught at several prestigious universities, including the US Naval War College. A prolific author, Yoshihara's published books include Mao's Army Goes to Sea: The Island Campaigns and the Founding of China's Navy (2023, in English and Japanese).
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Author: By Yoshihisa Komori, The Sankei Shimbun Washington, DC
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