Politics & Security

Ishiba Avoids Going Machiavellian, Signaling Mayhem in the LDP

New PM Shigeru Ishiba gets to decide who gets the top government and party jobs, but a little cunning would have helped avoid decisions sure to divide the LDP.

Published

8 hours ago

October 7, 2024

Masato Inui

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivers a policy speech at the extraordinary Diet session on October 4 (©Sankei by Kazuya Kamogawa)

No doubt about it, Shigeru Ishiba is an honest man.

Making personnel decisions is one of the most difficult jobs in a company or government agency. Companies and government offices that do it poorly will decline and eventually disappear. That is precisely why elite staff are assigned to the human resources department in large companies and national government agencies.

Still, it is impossible always to have personnel decisions that everyone can agree on.

Moreover, Nagatacho, as Japan's political world is colloquially referred to, doesn't have a personnel department. As a result, who gets the jobs of ministers and party executives is decided solely by whoever is in power at the time. Naturally, politicians who get the short end of the stick and are relegated to political Siberia harbor intense resentments.

*Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Seiichiro Murakami is on the left of PM Shigeru Ishiba. With them on Setpember 1 is Minister of Defense Gen Nakatani (©Sankei by Masahiro Sakai)*

Ishiba Is No Machiavelli

After enduring many hardships, it is understandable why a politician who has long been slighted but finally manages to seize power, would wonder whether he should just let go of his grudge.

As soon as he became prime minister, Ishiba appointed Seiichiro Murakami to a key Cabinet position. That is the same Murakami who was punished by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) for calling former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe a "traitor" after his assassination. Furthermore, Ishiba did not appoint a single member of the former Abe faction to any of the top four party jobs. That is even though they numbered 100 members at their peak.

This is a textbook example of "retaliatory personnel actions," and its very thoroughness is refreshing to witness.

If Ishiba were a clever opportunist and "Machiavellian politician," he would never have doled out the posts in this fashion. Recently, I wrote in detail about such people. They are what I refer to as "political scoundrels" (akuto) in my new book, Seijika wa Akunin gurai de Chodo Ii ("A Good Politician Should Be a Bit of a Scoundrel," Wani Books, 2024).

If Strategy Was a Factor

Such a description would fit various successful politicians who used every trick in the book to seize power. Think of men like Shigeru Yoshida, Nobusuke Kishi or Kakuei Tanaka.

If one of them was the new prime minister, he would surely have appointed the popular Sanae Takaichi as LDP Secretary General. Furthermore, he would have appointed Takayuki Kobayashi to a key cabinet position. Naturally, it would only be to help fight the general election this month and the Upper House election next summer. After that, he could then get rid of them as he pleased. Or instead, he might select only Kobayashi, who is still in his forties, to isolate Takaichi.

Abe, who defeated Ishiba in a comeback victory in the presidential election 12 years ago, promoted Ishiba as LDP Secretary General, even though he despised him. The result was that he united the party and the LDP was able to regain power. Then after the Abe Administration's base had been solidified, he kicked Ishiba out of the secretary general post. Gradually, he whittled down Ishiba's strength within the party.

*At a party headquarters on September 27, candidates of the LDP leadership election join hands with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to the cheers of the crowd. (©Sankei by Ataru Haruna)*

Shattered Party Unity

Ishiba was incapable of a similar feat. As a result, he opted for an "Ishiba lineup" and completely shattered unity within the LDP.

Of course, individuals who belonged to the former Abe faction are out for vengeance. Those active in the Takaichi and Kobayashi camps will also turn their backs on the administration. And just like Ishiba did in the past, they will likely act as "opposition within the party." They will harass the prime minister and those close to him with cutting criticisms.

If the LDP loses the House of Representatives election on October 27, internal party strife will surely intensify. Nevertheless, I will not make the cliched suggestion that, as LDP President Ishiba, should strive for harmony within the party.

*Sanae Takaichi delivers a speech before the final vote, at the Liberal Democratic Party headquarters on September 27. (©Sankei by Kazuya Kamogawa)*

The 'Takaichi Phenomenon' is a Global Trend

A senior reporter from another company once described Takaichi as a "dangerous politician." Moreover, with the support of 30 percent of LDP members, she can no longer be considered as outlandish.

Donald Trump in the United States is not the only precedent. In Austria, a center-right party is now the largest political party. And in France Marine Le Pen is closer than ever to occupying the Elysee Palace. In all these cases, politicians advocating a "my country first" form of nationalism are attracting considerable support.

The "Takaichi phenomenon" in the LDP presidential election reflects the global trend. That is to rectify the excesses of globalization which have made the rich richer and the poor poorer.

The 70th anniversary of the founding of the LDP will be marked in 2025. All signs point to turmoil within the party.

(Read the column in Japanese.)

Author: Masato Inui, Executive Editor, Sankei Shimbun