Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung attend a joint press conference after their meeting at the Prime Minister's Office on the afternoon of August 23. (©Courtesy of the Cabinet Secretariat)
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's decision to resign on September 7 is sending ripples across the sea. In South Korea, policymakers are bracing for the possibility that the fragile bond built with Japan in recent months could falter under his successor.
South Korean media outlets have been quick to point out that the two frontrunners to replace Ishiba — Shinjiro Koizumi and Sanae Takaichi — lean further right.
Both politicians drew attention last month when they visited Yasukuni Shrine on South Korea's Liberation Day, a gesture widely seen as incendiary to the Korean public.
Amid a looming leadership election, concerns are mounting that the cautious bridge-building between the two East Asian states could waver or come under strain.
A Fragile Détente
Only weeks earlier, the atmosphere seemed upbeat. On August 23, Ishiba welcomed South Korean President Lee Jae-myung for their first summit since the latter's inauguration in June.
Lee deliberately chose to stop in Tokyo first, ahead of his maiden trip to Washington.
For Lee, a progressive firebrand who once labeled Japan an "adversarial state" and called American forces in the Korean Peninsula "occupiers," it was a strategic gesture aimed at stabilizing ties with a neighbor long described as "close, yet distant."
During the summit, the South Korean president pledged to resume shuttle diplomacy with Tokyo, endorsed tighter trilateral coordination with Washington, and, most notably, refrained from pressing historical grievances.
The Strategic Restraint
At the heart of the Ishiba-Lee understanding was a balance between domestic and international expectations.
Weeks earlier, on August 14, Lee had stated during the annual Comfort Women Commemoration Day that the comfort women issue remains unresolved and vowed to "set history straight." However, the following day, in his Liberation Day speech, he steered clear of the anti-Japanese rhetoric often adopted by his progressive predecessors.
Ishiba, too, walked a fine line. His August 15 war memorial speech included an expression of Japan's "remorse" for wartime aggression, which Seoul welcomed. But he avoided repeating the phrase at the summit to prevent conservative ire at home.
Both leaders likely understood that another rupture like the Abe-Moon era standoff that followed South Korea's 2018 Supreme Court ruling on wartime labor would be too costly in light of escalating shared geopolitical risks.
Politics in Flux
The new relationship was never firmly grounded. Lee remains under pressure from his left-leaning base to take a tougher line on history, while Ishiba struggles to convince conservatives wary of concessions.
With Ishiba's exit, Seoul worries that this delicate equilibrium may prove unsustainable.
Commentators in South Korea portray Takaichi as a staunch nationalist in the mold of late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Koizumi, despite his reformist image, as firmly right-wing on foreign and security affairs.
Neither has spelled out a clear regional policy, but their track records have raised speculation that the Ishiba-Lee alignment may not outlast the former's tenure.
Thorny Historical Dispute
A key flashpoint remains the wartime labor dispute, or what the South Korean side characterizes as "forced labor" under Japanese colonial rule.
In 2023, the two countries agreed to set up a third-party compensation scheme, channeling payments through a South Korean foundation. This arrangement bypassed the Japanese government and firms, which insist that all reparations and claims were settled under the 1965 treaty.
So far, 26 former laborers or their family members have received payouts of up to $216,000 USD each, funded by private South Korean companies.
The real challenge lies in the scale of potential claims. Dozens of additional cases are pending, and as many as 218,639 Koreans are said to be eligible for compensation.
While the Lee administration has signaled its intent to continue the scheme, the fund is already facing financial shortfalls. A surge in claims would likely impose a crippling burden and trigger severe political fallout, with effects extending to Japan.
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Author: Kenji Yoshida
