Photo Caption: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba speaking in Tokyo. (Pool photograph)
Expect 2025 to be a year in which Japan is forced to defend its future and its past.
If Japan does not move quickly to build up its deterrence, there is a dire risk that within a few short years, it may become embroiled in war for the first time in the postwar era. Let's make this a year for taking the steps needed to securely maintain the peace.
The postwar era has already lasted for eight decades. Still, we are likely to see an increase in heinous slander from China, both Koreas and leftists about the Greater East Asian (Pacific) War that ignores the historical facts. Japan must courageously respond to these attacks or its national spirit will wither. As a country, we must stand up for the true historical facts and protect the honor of the Japanese people who endured so much at that time.
If the government and politicians' response is inadequate, the Japanese people must urge them on and also speak out themselves.
It has been one year since a massive earthquake struck the Noto Peninsula. We long to see the affected area recover. Simultaneously, we feel the acute need to protect the whole of Japan and the surrounding region from future dangers. Just look at the current conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Great disasters are caused by human beings as well as nature. As always, national security remains the foundation for independence and prosperity.
Embracing a Crisis Mentality
At his final 2024 press conference, Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff General Yoshihide Yoshida, the top uniformed Self-Defense Forces officer, made the following statements.
"Divisions and conflicts within the international community are deepening and the situation is only growing worse. We are at the very brink of a verdict on whether or not a free and open international order can be maintained."
He added, "Looking ahead to [2025], there are no signs of improvement."
General Yoshida also commented on whether Japan could take primary responsibility for preventing and repelling aggression against itself by 2027. "We don't even have that much time," he warned.
His frank remarks convey a sense of crisis.
This may constitute the most serious expression of concern about a potential emergency from a top uniformed officer since Tetsuya Nishimoto. Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff from 1993-1996, he spoke out during the 1993-1994 Korean Peninsula nuclear crisis. At the time, the United States and North Korea stood on the brink of war. Nevertheless, as was the case then, the Japanese political world these days does not demonstrate a similar sense of crisis.
Focusing on National Security
Successive past cabinets made efforts to ensure Japan's security. Shinzo Abe's administration paved the way for Japan's limited exercise of the right of collective self-defense. Following Abe, the Yoshihide Suga government joined with the United States to declare the "importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait." And under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida Japan began drastically strengthening its defense capabilities. That included increasing defense spending and acquiring counterstrike capabilities.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's current cabinet is also making serious efforts. It is addressing the difficulties in recruiting Self-Defense Force personnel, while also striving to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and any outburst of violence on the part of North Korea.
Irrespective of the dangers, Japan largely turned inward in 2023. Politicians and the press were preoccupied with controversies concerning the role of money in politics. Clearly, the representatives of the people should have paid more attention to foreign affairs and national security in the Diet and other forums.
If authoritarian regimes on Japan's periphery come to see our nation as an easy target, the efficacy of deterrence will be diminished. Just imagine that horrifying prospect.
Working with the Trump Administration
Once President-elect Donald Trump takes office, a ceasefire should be reached in Ukraine's fight against the Russian invasion. That would surely change the security environment in Northeast Asia, including the Taiwan Strait, the East and South China Seas.
Moreover, the impact would go beyond East Asia itself. The Japan Ground Self-Defense Force may be expected to send troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers to monitor the ceasefire. Also, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force may also be called upon to help in defeating the Houthi rebels, a pro-Iranian militia that has been attacking civilian ships of several nations, including Japan, in the Red Sea.
Japan's responses in this situation will likely determine whether or not Western countries stay engaged in Northeast Asia.
These only remain hypotheticals at this point. However, we have to wonder whether Japan's political world and the Japanese people are preparing for the unfolding situations in Ukraine and elsewhere.
Do we Japanese sincerely view the deepening international division and conflict as something that directly concerns us? Hopefully, when he meets Trump, Prime Minister Ishiba will demonstrate his active commitment to protecting Japan and the international order.
The 80-year Postwar Period
There are two final points that have to be made concerning the 80-year postwar era.
The first point concerns the Greater East Asia War. Since the end of the war, the Japanese people have not been educated about Japan's goals of achieving racial equality in the international sphere. Or its goal of overcoming European and American colonial rule. These goals were in addition to the desire to defend the homeland in the war.
The second point is the importance of basing our discussions on actual historical facts.
Follow our special New Year's series, Predictions 2025.
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(Read the Chief Editorial Writer's New Year's column in Japanese.)
Author: By Satoshi Sakakibara, Chief Editorial Writer, The Sankei Shimbun
