Sohei Kamiya, leader of the Sanseito Party, calling for support on October 26 in Chiyoda Ward, Tokyo (©Sankei)
Could the rise in conservative support in Japan be more closely tied to energy policies than to tax reform?
In the October 2024 Lower House election, the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and Reiwa Shinsengumi saw notable gains from the popularity of their tax policy proposals. Reiwa increased its vote share by an average of 3.1 percentage points across all 47 prefectures. Its largest increase was (6.2 percentage points) in Okinawa. Notably, it also saw significant growth in conservative areas like Yamagata.
The DPP's proposals to raise the income tax exemption limit and reduce the consumption tax resonated with voters. As a consequence, the party's seat count in the Diet quadrupled. Similarly, Reiwa Shinsengumi's focus on revitalizing personal consumption and reforming corporate and income taxes also captured significant attention.
However, while both parties benefited from their tax policies, the rise in conservative support seems to have been more strongly driven by dissatisfaction with the LDP's energy policies. Growing discontent with the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) leftward shift, especially its decarbonization policies, has likely boosted support for conservative parties. Both the Conservative Party of Japan (CPJ) and Sanseito attracted voters by promising to prioritize energy security, reduce energy costs, and maintain a diverse energy mix.
Energy Policy as a Key Issue
Japan's Green Transformation (GX) policy aims for carbon neutrality by 2050 through renewable energy, green industries, and energy efficiency projects. It includes ¥150 trillion JPY (approximately $9.7 billion USD) in public-private investments and tax incentives, with oversight by the GX Agency.
This policy, designed to accelerate Japan's transition to renewable energy, has been criticized for its high costs and the burden it places on ordinary citizens. Of the ¥150 trillion, ¥20 trillion ($1.3 billion) is to be funded through government bonds.
The government is now considering raising funds through energy surcharges and revenues from the sale of carbon credits. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba outlined these plans at a meeting of the GX Implementation Council on October 31. These surcharges would ultimately be passed on to consumers through higher energy prices, including electricity, gas, and other fuels.
Green Policy Hidden Costs
In a recent analysis, energy and environmental researcher Taishi Sugiyama warns of the growing burden on Japanese taxpayers due to renewable energy costs and green policy spending. "The renewable energy surcharge alone costs a standard household ¥16,752 (approximately $108) annually, but this is just the beginning," he says. The government's push to expand renewable energy and build supporting infrastructure could lead to "a massive stealth tax increase" that burdens households indirectly.
Sugiyama notes, "With plans for ¥150 trillion in green investments over the next decade, this amounts to ¥1.2 million ($7,790) per person. Japan's experience with solar power has already shown that investing in excessively expensive technology is unlikely to drive economic growth."
Against Radical Decarbonization
In the election, the CPJ made notable gains, securing 1,145,622 votes nationwide, or 2.1% of the proportional vote. Although it did not meet the requirement for full party status (five elected members), the party demonstrated its success by securing seats in key regions.
For example, former Nagoya Mayor Takashi Kawamura won in Aichi's 1st single-member district. Yuko Takegami, a former Aichi Prefecture Assembly member, won on the Tokai proportional representation block. Fukui University Professor Yoichi Shimada won on the Kinki block. In particular, Kawamura's win in Aichi, where the party achieved a 5.1% vote share, and Shimada's performance in the Kinki region with around 3%, demonstrated the party's expanding support base.
In an exclusive interview with JAPAN Forward, Shimada argued that the decarbonization push does not adequately account for the reality of Japan's energy needs. He specifically pointed out that it overlooks the crucial role of thermal power, which accounts for about 70% of the country's electricity.
"We (the CPJ) reject decarbonization extremism," he stated. Instead, the CPJ "advocates for an energy policy that efficiently utilizes nuclear and thermal power plants." Shimada emphasized that "by abolishing renewable energy surcharges and reducing gasoline taxes, we can provide relief to both households and businesses. This, in turn, would help stimulate the economy."
Energy Security
Another minor party that gained support in this election was Sanseito, which has also been vocal in its opposition to the decarbonization policies pushed by the LDP.
Sanseito fielded 95 candidates across single-member districts and proportional representation in this election, increasing their seat count from one to three. Led by Shohei Kamiya, the party has criticized the government's approach to climate change, particularly its focus on achieving a 46-50% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030.
In a February 2024 video on Sanseito's official YouTube channel, Kamiya pointed out that Japan is making efforts to reduce emissions. However, he noted, "major emitters like China and Russia are not participating in the global efforts to combat climate change." As a result, Kamiya argues, "Japan's efforts alone will not solve global warming. We should focus on encouraging other nations to reduce their emissions as well."
Kamiya has also stressed the importance of Japan's energy security, particularly given the country's reliance on thermal power for electricity generation. "Nuclear plants are still offline, and renewable energy sources like solar and wind are unreliable," he remarked. "That is why Japan must continue developing technologies that reduce carbon emissions from thermal power plants rather than drastically cutting back on fossil fuels."
Cautious on Coalition Proposals
In a press conference on October 28, Kamiya expressed a cautious stance in response to the movements for majority formation between the ruling and opposition parties. He emphasized that while the party would engage in negotiations if approached for coalition talks, it would "not form an alliance just for the sake of it. The question is whether the LDP would accept our proposals. If not, it would be difficult for us to join."
Shimada declared that the CPJ has "absolutely no plans to form an alliance with Ishiba's LDP." However, he did not rule out "cooperation with other parties on a policy-to-policy basis."
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Author: Daniel Manning
