Hudson Institute's Japan Chair challenges conventional international relations thinking by integrating a wide range of perspectives toward beyond-the-horizon policy issues. JAPAN Forward is pleased to amplify the voices of its experts by sharing their reactions to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's overwhelming election win on Sunday, February 8. Japan Chair Kenneth R Weinstein, together with five senior fellows and Hudson experts, examines the election outcome and its broader security and economic implications.
Insights from Hudson Experts
Last month, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap election, hoping to grow the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) share of seats in the country's lower house.
In a historic win last weekend, the LDP gained 120 seats for a total of 316, more than two-thirds of the lower house. Combined with its partner, Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party), the LDP coalition now holds 352 of 465 seats, a supermajority.
The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the LDP's main opposition, suffered a major loss. It had formed a coalition with Komeito — the LDP's former coalition partner that split when the party elected Takaichi — but this so-called Centrist Reform Alliance lost 118 seats.
This victory has significant implications for Japan's foreign policy and its relationship with the United States. Below are analyses from the Japan Chair experts on this historic election.
The Trump-Takaichi Relationship
Takaichi's victory is the LDP's largest in the postwar period, humiliating Japan's anemic opposition parties. This victory has implications for the US-Japan alliance: President Donald Trump broke with tradition to endorse Takaichi before the election and clearly values his relationship with the prime minister, a fellow defense hawk and immigration skeptic. The US-Japan alliance is as strong as it has ever been, especially as Takaichi now has sufficient support in the Diet to transform the country's self-defense forces.
The LDP's victory also deals a blow to Beijing, whose wolf-warrior diplomacy sought to undermine the pro-Taiwan Takaichi. Similarly, Pyongyang can no longer seek to lull a weak Japanese government into diplomatic concessions. Meanwhile, Takaichi is broadly admired in Taiwan.
But it is European leaders who may feel the biggest reverberations from Sunday's results. A landslide Takaichi victory, with Trump's strong support, is a loss for French President Emmanuel Macron, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, and other leaders who have argued that America's allies should distance themselves from the US to better ensure national sovereignty and security. Takaichi won on the platform that Washington will continue to be a vital partner for Tokyo.
Takaichi's Economic Strategy and the $550 Billion Strategic Industrial Fund
The LDP-Ishin coalition's overwhelming electoral victory gives Takaichi the political mandate to implement policies to secure Japan's economic growth, economic resiliency, and economic relationship with the US.
She will push ahead with her plans for public-private investment in 17 strategic industrial and technological areas to bolster Japan's long-term economic growth. These investments, along with the government's plans to update the Economic Security Promotion Act, should strengthen Japan's economic resilience in the face of ongoing Chinese economic coercion in rare earths, semiconductors, and dual-use materials.
Finally, Takaichi's strong political position will ensure that the $550 billion US-Japan strategic industrial fund will proceed, with projects likely being announced in the coming weeks ahead of her visit to Washington in March. These projects, which build on Japan's status as the top foreign investor in the United States, will deepen US-Japan economic cooperation and resiliency even further.
US-Japan Security Relations
Takaichi's supermajority provides political stability and expands Japan's political options, including a possible constitutional revision. But a constitutional revision would consume a significant amount of political capital that Takaichi could use to advance practical security reforms, including revising the country's three strategic documents, further increasing defense spending, and updating the five-category framework for defense equipment transfers.
For example, Tokyo could increase defense spending on a phased build-up of the military infrastructure it shares with the US — such as airfields, ports, logistics hubs, and command-and-control functions—across the First and Second Island Chains. This political moment offers Japan an opportunity to take the lead and act proactively in strengthening its defense capabilities, while contributing to security across the Indo-Pacific.
US and East Asia Dynamics
The LDP and Takaichi's resounding electoral victory will strengthen stability and enhance security in the Indo-Pacific region.
This begins with the prime minister's commitment to increasing Japan's defense budget and strengthening the Japan Self-Defense Forces. With these changes, Tokyo will become a more attractive and capable alliance partner, and, in conjunction with the United States, it will be able to enhance deterrence across the First Island Chain. Her close personal relationship with Trump points to a future of an ever-stronger US-Japan alliance.
At the same time, the prime minister will likely continue to follow the lead of her mentor, the late Shinzo Abe, by advancing Japan's role as a proactive contributor to peace. She can do so by strengthening ties with the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, Australia, and the Quad (a security dialogue that includes the US, Australia, India, and Japan).
Going forward, Japan's role in enhancing alliance-based cooperation will be welcomed in Washington and in democracies across the Indo-Pacific region.
US-Japan Economic Security Ties
The backbone of Takaichi's government under this supermajority will be an ambitious economic agenda — "Sanaeconomics" — which will seek to address the social strains created by Tokyo's long-standing pursuit of mild inflation. Investing in emerging and future industries could give Japan the competitive edge it needs to restore sustainable profitability. Yet Japanese households are facing mounting affordability pressures as the government stretches its fiscal capacity and the yen falls to a 40-year low.
While Trump has expressed strong support for Japan's first female prime minister, the removal of major domestic political obstacles may increase pressure on her government to deliver reforms central to the US-Japan alliance — whether through higher defense spending, expanded investment in the United States, or increased purchases of American goods. At the same time, the widening gap between the dollar and the yen risks eroding the quality of future Japanese investment in the United States and complicating defense procurement.
Japan's Domestic Political Makeup
It is difficult to exaggerate the scope of the LDP's victory on Sunday. Takaichi has indicated that the LDP will maintain its partnership with Ishin. But Takaichi's party would now command a supermajority in the Lower House even without its coalition partner, granting it the power to override the Upper House. This result cements Takaichi's electoral dominance.
The awkwardly cobbled together Centrist Reform Alliance suffered devastating losses, particularly the CDP. With the "pacifist brake" of the Komeito removed from the LDP coalition, only the Upper House stands in the way of a formal proposal on constitutional revision being put before the Japanese people. When the prime minister arrives in Washington next month, Trump will know he is dealing with a leader who, like his friend Shinzo Abe, can fully deliver on her security commitments.
The Hudson Institute's Japan Chair first published this report on February 10, 2026. Learn more about Hudson on its home and Japan Chair pages.
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Authors: Dr Kenneth R Weinstein is the Hudson Institute's Japan Chair. Dr William Chou is the Japan Chair deputy director and senior fellow. Hudson experts Masashi Murano, Dr James Przystup, Riley Walters, and Dr Paul Sracic are also senior fellows with the Japan Chair.
