JINF Report: Evidence Points to China's First Nuclear Aircraft Carrier

Satellite imagery analyzed by the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals (JINF) suggests China has likely started constructing its first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier at a shipyard in Dalian, Liaoning Province.

Elsewhere along the Yellow Sea coast, expansion work is underway at the naval base in Qingdao, Shandong Province. The nearby construction of a new naval airfield indicates that Beijing is laying the groundwork for the introduction of its fourth aircraft carrier.

If the new aircraft carrier were to be based in Qingdao — like the Liaoning, which has conducted exercises near Japan — activity stretching from the First Island Chain to the Second, via the East China Sea, could be expected to intensify.

Such development would likely affect Japan's defense posture.

Evidence Taking Shape

Japan's Ministry of Defense had previously announced that there were "indications of [China's] future plan to build nuclear-powered aircraft carriers."

Given the satellite imagery acquired by JINF, it now seems to support those assessments of a naval buildup.

*Satellite images obtained and analyzed by JINF suggest that China is constructing its first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. (©JINF)*

The construction is taking place at a dock operated by Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Group. It's the same facility where China's first domestically built aircraft carrier, Shandong, was assembled.

Since February, satellite imagery has shown the installation of keel blocks, timber structures more than 270 meters long that are used to support a vessel's hull during construction.

Consistent With Nuclear Carriers

Satellite imagery from November 10 showed that a section of the hull, measuring 150 meters in length and 43 meters in width, had already been assembled. Inside, two internal frames measuring 16 meters in height and 14 meters in width were visible.

Frames of this scale were not observed during the construction of the conventionally-powered aircraft carrier Shandong or China's third carrier, Fujian.

At Newport News Shipbuilding in Virginia, where the United States Navy's nuclear-powered aircraft carriers are built, both vessels currently under construction incorporate two structures of comparable scale.

*The newly commissioned Chinese military aircraft carrier "Fujian" (right) on November 5 in Sanya, Hainan Province. (©Xinhua News Agency via Kyodo)*

Each measures roughly 16 meters in height and 13 meters in width and is installed at locations designated for the reactor containment.

"The size and shape of the frames visible at the Dalian shipyard closely resemble those seen on the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier currently under construction in the US," says Maki Nakagawa, a researcher at JINF.

"They are believed to be installations intended for reactor containment. By the early 2030s, the Chinese military may field aircraft carriers with capabilities potentially comparable to those of the US."

Beyond the First Island Chain

Meanwhile, a naval airfield near Qingdao has been outfitted with landing training facilities and hangars for fighter jets.

At the Qingdao naval base, preparations also appear to be underway to support the deployment of a fourth aircraft carrier's escort ships. These include the expansion of piers and the construction of degaussing facilities intended to remove magnetic signatures from vessels.

*The Chinese Navy aircraft carrier Liaoning (©Kyodo)*

Lately, the Chinese military has stepped up exercises in Pacific waters beyond the first island chain, extending its reach toward the second.

Once its fourth aircraft carrier — expected to be a nuclear-powered vessel equipped with a catapult system — enters service, it will be able to remain deployed in the Pacific for longer periods than conventionally powered carriers such as the Fujian.

*First and Second Island Chains perimeters in blue. (©Hudson Institute)*

Nakagawa notes that "while China's aircraft carrier force still lags behind that of the US military, the commissioning of a fourth carrier could usher in more sustained operations around Japan."

Such a shift, she adds, "could make surveillance and intelligence-gathering activities by the Self-Defense Forces and the US military more routine, effectively forcing Japan to adapt its response."

Author: Takashi Arimoto, The Sankei Shimbun

(Read this in Japanese)