Kishida as Kingmaker: Steering the LDP from Behind the Scenes

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August 14 marked one year since former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, then leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, announced his resignation. He stepped down after three years in office, taking responsibility for his faction's failure to report income from some political fundraising events.

Power then passed to the current Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba. Despite back-to-back defeats in national elections, Ishiba has clung to office, leaving the LDP in continuous turmoil.

Kishida, meanwhile, is said to be positioning himself as a kingmaker ahead of the party's next leadership contest following Ishiba's eventual resignation.

"Autumn will be busy," Kishida told those close to him after the LDP's joint meeting of Diet members on August 8. At that meeting, it was decided to solicit the views of national lawmakers and prefectural chapters on whether to move up the party leadership election.

Kishida is said to believe that Ishiba's resignation is inevitable.

Parting Ways With Ishiba

In the September 2024 party leadership runoff, Kishida lobbied his former faction, Kochikai, to back Ishiba's bid for victory. Since then, however, the distance between him and the prime minister has only grown.

One source of tension was a cabinet reshuffling in the spring. Kishida had envisioned a "dream team" that included former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, who lost to Ishiba in the run-off.

*New LDP President Shigeru Ishiba, standing in front of Sanae Takaichi, shakes hands at the LDP party headquarters after winning the presidential election on September 27. (©Sankei by Kazuya Kamogawa)*

Notwithstanding the expectations, Ishiba filled key posts with his own allies, such as Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and Internal Affairs Minister Seiichiro Murakami. Kishida remarked, "That was the first stumble."

As the July 20 Upper House election drew near, frustration mounted over the Prime Minister's failure to articulate a clear vision on diplomacy and the economy.

Clinging to Power

At a meeting between Ishiba and former prime ministers on July 23, Ishiba was urged to "make the right decision quickly, or the party will split." Three of his predecessors pressed him to "act with a sense of urgency."

*Former prime ministers (from left) Taro Aso, Yoshihide Suga, and Fumio Kishida leave a meeting with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, at LDP headquarters on July 23.*

Those close to Kishida note, "Kishida stepped down in 2024 to spare the LDP a crushing defeat in the House of Representatives election. So he likely feels uneasy seeing a prime minister who has lost two elections in a row remain in office."

Kishida, the King Maker?

Some in the LDP hope for Kishida's return, but he denies any intention of a comeback. If the leadership election is brought forward, attention will turn to Kishida, who still commands influence over his former faction.

Kishida regularly meets with Taro Aso, the party's senior advisor and head of the Aso faction (Shikokai). It is the only faction still intact after the others dissolved. Depending on the situation, Aso may be willing to work with Kishida.

*Network of relationships surrounding former PM Fumio Kishida.*

Among the names floated as "post-Ishiba" candidates, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi met Kishida at the Diet on August 8. Kishida's closest aide, Seiji Kihara, who chairs the election campaign committee, backed Koizumi in the last leadership race, and Kishida continues to place high hopes on his future.

Kishida's relationship with former minister Takaichi is somewhat lukewarm, due in part to their policy differences. Meanwhile, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi maintains a steady relationship with him, having supported Kishida's administration in the same post.